NFL divisional round odds: How to bet Bengals-Bills

Updated Jan 22, 2023 2:50 pm EST

The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills will face each other for the second time in less than three weeks when they meet in an AFC divisional round playoff game Sunday in Upstate New York.

The teams played Jan. 2 when Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest while making a tackle with 5:58 remaining in the first quarter and the Bengals were leading 7-3. Hamlin was taken to a nearby hospital by ambulance and the game was canceled.

Hamlin was discharged on Jan. 11 to continue his rehabilitation at home.

The Bills lead the NFL all-time series 17-15.

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the Bengals-Bills game, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under, insights and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

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LeSean McCoy and David Helman discuss whether there should any reason to be nervous about Josh Allen’s turnovers.

Cincinnati Bengals (13-4) at Buffalo Bills (14-3), 3 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS

Point spread: Bills -5.5 (Bills favored to win by more than 5.5 points, otherwise Bengals cover)
Moneyline: Bills -278 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $13.60 total); Bengals +205 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $30.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 48.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

I’m very glad we got this matchup, although I do have sympathy for Bengals fans who believe this game should be at a neutral site. 

I was very high on the Bengals heading into the postseason and believed they were the best team in the AFC. One game should not change that; however, I am wavering a bit after their showing against the Ravens. 

The Bengals lost another offensive lineman and are now down three starting big boys on their line. I’ve never seen an offense able to function as well without a good offensive line quite like the Bengals. However, this Bills defense will thrive off getting pressure on Joe Burrow. Their pass rush isn’t as good without Von Miller, who was signed specifically for these games, but it’s good enough to get after Burrow. When Cincy's Jonah Williams went out Sunday night, Baltimore's pass defense played much better. As a matter of fact, in the second half without Williams last week, the Bengals had four offensive drives, three punts and one score. 

This week, Cincinnati faces a Bills defense that ranks ninth in passing DVOA and Pro Football Focus ranks their pass rush sixth in the NFL. I believe the Bengals will struggle to score points in Buffalo for all these reasons

The Bills offense is second in the NFL in scoring, and wagering against them to score might be a mistake. But the Bengals defense can shut down the Bills if Josh Allen is going to turn the ball over at the rate he’s going. The Bills are 31st in turnovers, and in the last four games, Allen has thrown five interceptions and fumbled the ball six times.

The Bengals defense is 12th in passing DVOA and seventh in passing coverage defense. The Bills offensive line is bottom third in the league in both run and pass blocking. Know that this is a break-glass offensive game for the Bills, which means more rushing attempts for Allen. More rushing attempts means a more controlled tempo and more of the clock running.

It's also worth noting the weather for this game. Yes, it might snow, but impacting the game more than the snow will be the wind. Expect the wind to be whipping around the stadium. 

I’m taking the Under in this game. 

PICK: Under 48.5 points scored by both teams combined at FOX Bet

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Jason McIntyre:

It was weird seeing Josh Allen only run four times for 20 yards against the Dolphins last week. In the season finale against the Patriots, he kept throwing it rather than tucking and running (nine carries, 16 yards). But if you look at the most important games of the season — in real nail-biters — the Bills lean heavily on Allen and his 6-foot-5, 245-pound frame to carry the team. He had 10-77 in the 32-29 win over Miami; 10-78 in a difficult Thanksgiving game against Detroit. He rushed for 86 yards in the loss to the Jets and had 84 yards against the Vikings. Allen was third in the NFL in interceptions, and there’s a chance this confusing Bengals defense will force Allen into mistakes. 

The fact he took seven sacks last week is mildly alarming. Makes you wonder if he's hurt.

In what should be a close game, Buffalo’s best offense is with the ball in Josh Allen’s hands, running for first downs, so give me his rushing prop to go over the number.

PICK: Josh Allen Over 45.5 rushing yards (at time of pick)

Insights from FOX Sports Gambling Expert Warren Sharp:

I expected the Cincinnati offense to struggle some vs. Baltimore last week. I documented how the Ravens have fared vs. this Bengals offense. In the first meeting of the year, they held the Bengals to just 17 points, and the Bengals punted four straight times to start the game. Even though the Ravens rested some players in the second meeting, they held the Bengals to just four drives (out of 13) to gain over 12 yards. 

The bottom line was the Ravens knew the personnel of the Bengals extremely well and had already done a great job against them multiple weeks earlier in the season.   

As a result, I didn’t expect a lot out of the Bengals' offense. I expected a closer game than most.   

Although the score wasn’t lopsided, the Bengals exceeded expectations on their first five drives of the game. They drove 54 yards for a field goal, 60 yards for a touchdown, fumbled the ball on their third drive, ended the half with a one-play kneel down and took their first possession of the second half 88 yards and scored another touchdown. 

Zero punts, three scores on four true drives for an average of 66 yards per drive. Nothing was easy, as expected, but the Bengals were efficient. On those five drives, Cincinnati averaged +0.19 EPA/play and a 55% success rate.   

The Bengals then had their first three-and-out, tied 17-17, and after that insane fumble-return TD. The Bengals had two more offensive possessions and went extremely conservative, leading 24-17, and ended up punting the ball back to the Ravens on both drives. Had the Bengals trailed, I imagine they would have been much more aggressive. 

The Bengals' offense has played an absolutely brutal schedule of opposing defenses, particularly of late. 

On the season, Cincinnati has the fourth-best offense despite playing the fourth-toughest schedule of opposing defenses. 

Since Week 15, the Bengals have done nothing but play five straight games vs. top-10 defenses. Not that the No. 4 Bills defense offers a respite to those difficult defenses, but I do question how strong the Bills defense is given their injuries and recent schedule. 

Since Week 9, the Bills have played seven games vs. bottom-10 offenses and only three games vs. top-10 offenses. 

Their games vs. bottom-10 offense: 

They went 5-2, averaged 28 PPG and allowed 20 PPG.

Their games vs. top-10 offenses? 

All three of those games saw 53 or more points scored, with the Bills averaging 30 PPG and allowing 26 PPG.

With the Bengals' injuries to the offensive line and adjustments from defenses, they have thrown short and frequently.   

Since Week 13, the Bengals rank 27th in percentage of passes to travel 10-plus yards downfield. And they’ve risen to the No. 1 most pass-heavy team in the NFL since, passing the ball on 68% of early downs in the first three quarters of games. That ranks 4% higher than the No. 2 team (Chargers) and well above the 53% NFL average. 

Over that same span, 37% of Joe Burrow’s wide receiver targets have come within two seconds of the snap, and an NFL-high 72% have come in less than 2.5 seconds (average = 52%). 

While the Bills have the NFL’s ninth-best pass defense, albeit untested of late, they are terrible at defending passes thrown quickly to wide receivers. 

Look at the Bills splits on passes to wide receivers: 

  • Thrown after 2.9 seconds: second in EPA/att, eighth in success rate, seventh in YPA
  • Thrown in less than 2.5 seconds: 25th in EPA/att, 28th in success rate, 29th in YPA

That’s a massive shift from top-10 to bottom-10 in these metrics. 

And since Week 12, when Von Miller was injured, it’s become even more of a problem. 

Buffalo ranks 30th in EPA/att, 29th in success rate, and 29th in YPA on WR passes thrown in less than 2.5 seconds. 

Specifically, the Bills allow +0.37 EPA/att, 60% success and 8.2 YPA on these passes, while the NFL average is +0.13 EPA/att, 50% success and 6.8 YPA. 

Keep in mind the Bills faced the ninth-easiest schedule of passing offenses during this span, facing the following quarterbacks: 

Not only does Burrow throw these quick wide receiver passes more frequently than any other QB in the NFL, but he also ranks third in success rate and sixth in YPA when doing so. 

Burrow will certainly need to pass early given the losses of three starters along the offensive line: La’el Collins, Alex Cappa and Jonah Williams. 

But as mentioned, the Bills lost pass rusher Von Miller in Week 12.   

Prior to his loss, Buffalo ranked fourth in pressure rate while blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL.   

Since his loss, the Bills rank 24th in pressure rate despite blitzing at the 13th-highest rate. And they rank 30th in pressure rate since Week 15. 

All of these trending metrics for the Bills' defense, despite the easy schedule of offenses, bode well for the Bengals' offense. 

But on the other side of the ball, there are reasons for hope for the Bills' offense.

Josh Allen has struggled tremendously vs. the blitz this year. He ranks first this season in EPA/att when not blitzed but 25th when blitzed.    

The good news, however, is the Bengals do not blitz very frequently. On the season, the Bengals blitz at the 21st-highest rate, and that dipped to 25th since Week 12. 

Allen has also improved tremendously inside the red zone. Look at Allen’s efficiency splits inside the red zone out of 38 quarterbacks: 

  • Weeks 1-10: 34th in EPA/att, 36th in third-down conversion rate, 13th in success rate
  • Since Week 11: third in EPA/att, fourth in third-down conversion rate, second in success rate

This game truly comes down to whether or not the Bengals can get the ball out without Burrow getting pressured too frequently, and it is a perfect live betting game once you see how his line is holding up. 

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