NFL divisional round betting action report: 'Taken sharp money on the Bucs'
NFL divisional playoff odds reveal sizable point spreads in both of Saturday's games and a spread nearing a touchdown in Sunday's early kickoff. So it's pretty clear that the Sunday night finale of the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills is the marquee matchup.
Which is just the way oddsmakers want it: Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen, for the seventh time in the last four seasons, including the third time in the playoffs.
"Chiefs-Bills, of course. Absolutely. The NFL got it right," SuperBook senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said. "The fact that it's the last game of the weekend means we'll see even more money on this game."
And as the point spread suggests, it's close to a coin-toss matchup.
Degnon offers insights into the Chiefs-Bills game and more, while professional bettor Randy McKay serves up a Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Detroit Lions wager he likes as we dive into NFL divisional round odds.
Hail to the Chiefs … and the Bills
On Monday night, once Buffalo finished off Pittsburgh 31-17, SuperBook opened the Bills -2.5 (-120) against the visiting Chiefs. Apparently, that number was right on the button, because as of late Wednesday night, it hadn't budged.
"There are slightly more tickets and money on the Bills spread. On the moneyline, there are slightly more tickets and money on the Chiefs. It's good two-way action," Degnon said.
Kansas City is +130 on the moneyline, which is attractive for a defending Super Bowl champion. A $100 bet would profit $130, for a $230 total payout. But that's only if the Chiefs win the game outright, of course.
Part of the challenge in doing so: This is Patrick Mahomes' first-ever true road playoff game. In 15 postseason games, his only previous travels have been to three Super Bowls over the past four seasons. The Chiefs beat the Eagles 38-35 in the Super Bowl last season.
With the Chiefs and Bills both popular public teams, Degnon couldn't yet speculate on who the book will need come 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday.
"I think it's gonna continue to be pretty split action. Our need could come down to one or two big bets closer to kickoff," he said.
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Early Bucs Backers
Much like Green Bay, which travels to San Francisco for a Saturday showdown, the Buccaneers' presence this weekend is a bit of a surprise. The Buccaneers were 3-point home underdogs to the defending NFC champion Eagles in the Wild Card round. But the Bucs put Philly out of its misery, rolling to a 32-9 victory.
Subsequently, Tampa Bay opened as a 6-point road underdog to the Detroit Lions at The SuperBook. On Tuesday, the line moved from Lions -6 to -6.5, where it remained late Wednesday night.
"We've taken some sharp money on the Bucs +6.5 and a sharp bet on Lions -6. So the sharps are on both sides of this game," Degnon said. "Tickets are about even on the spread, with a little bit more money on the Lions right now. There's more moneyline Bucs bets, though, taking the ‘dog at +235. No one wants to lay -280 on a straight bet."
The operative term being straight bet. Degnon expects the Lions to be included in plenty of moneyline parlays and teasers by the time Sunday's 3 p.m. ET kickoff rolls around.
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Smart Shopper
The consensus spread on Bucs-Lions is Detroit -6.5. But as McKay proved, it pays to shop around. In the only divisional-round bet he's made so far, McKay got the Bucs +7 (-120) at Circa Sports.
"I feel like this line should be around Bucs +4," McKay said. "Tampa Bay lost against Detroit [20-6] earlier this season. But this team is peaking on offense and defense. Tampa's run defense is strong and should force Jared Goff to pass and hopefully force him into turnovers."
McKay said he's also closely studying the Chiefs-Bills total. It opened at 46.5 and is down to 45.5 and even 45 at a couple of sportsbooks.
"I have a lean on the Under, but I have to see the weather and Buffalo's defensive injury report," McKay said.
At the moment, there's no snow in Sunday's forecast. But winds of 10-15 mph are expected, which will surely make it feel colder than predicted temperatures in the low 20s.
As for injuries, starting linebackers Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) and Terrel Bernard (ankle) are questionable for Buffalo. Also questionable are starting cornerbacks Taron Johnson (concussion) and Rasul Douglas (knee). Dodson and Douglas sat out the Wild Card win over Pittsburgh.
Theme Developing
Much like fellow underdogs Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the Houston Texans are a popular moneyline play against the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens. Houston is +350 on the moneyline at The SuperBook, with Baltimore correspondingly -420.
"I'm not surprised, but we've got more moneyline tickets and money on the Texans. They're a big underdog, and they just blew out the Browns," Degnon said, alluding to Houston's 45-14 Wild Card rout as a 2.5-point home underdog.
On the spread, the Ravens opened at -9.5, backed up to -9 Tuesday, and returned to -9.5 Wednesday.
"We had a sharp group lay 9 with the Ravens. But tickets and money are about equal on the spread," Degnon said.
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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
The big money has yet to show up on divisional playoff games thus far. But Caesars Sports noted a couple of interesting plays made earlier this week:
- $110,000 Steelers-Bills Over 37. That got there without much trouble Monday, with Buffalo winning 31-17. The bettor profited $100,000, for a total payout of $210,000.
- · $50,000 Lions +400 to win the NFC. Should Detroit claim the conference title, the bettor would profit $200,000, for a total payout of $250,000.
Meanwhile, at BetMGM, a customer is rooting hard for a Bills-49ers Super Bowl. The bettor has $10,000 at +600 on that exact matchup. So if Buffalo and San Fran earn trips to Las Vegas for the Feb. 11 finale, the bettor profits $60,000, for a total payout of $70,000.
As for the divisional games, rest assured, the high-roller crowd will open up its wallet once the weekend hits. Just remember to keep it reasonable on your end. Enjoy the games!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.