NFL Confidential: Execs, Agents Share Winners, Losers; Best, Worst Contracts in Free Agency

Just like many of us, executives, agents and scouts around the NFL were amazed by some of the moves made across the league in the opening days of free agency. 

We surveyed insiders around the NFL on who they think the winners and losers of free agency are to this point, along with which contracts they thought were the best and worst. One NFL executive lauded a team's all-in approach, while an agent didn't like one of the $100 million contracts handed out this week.

So, which teams improved the most in the first week of free agency? Which contract was the biggest overpay? Here's what we learned in our conversations with executives, agents and scouts around the NFL. 

[2026 NFL Free Agency Grades]

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Jets, Raiders get their rebuilds off to good starts: ‘They didn’t do anything stupid'

Ralph Vacchiano: The teams that spend the most in free agency aren’t always the ones that do the best. In fact, some years the biggest spenders turn into the biggest flops.

But two teams that had money to burn this week got positive reviews from several NFL scouts and executives. So maybe there is finally some hope for the Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Jets.

"I’m not saying either one of them will be good," an assistant general manager told me. "But I liked their approach (to free agency). They didn’t do anything stupid."

The Jets, in particular, "completely rebuilt their defense," as one scout told me, "but they did it without taking an unnecessary big swing. Every guy they signed is a solid veteran player. And none of them broke anyone’s bank."

Their signings included linebacker Demario Davis (two years, $22 million), edge rusher Joseph Ossai (three years, $36 million), and a trade for safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (three years, $40 million). They also took an inexpensive, one-year, $5.5 million shot at cornerback Nahshon Wright, who went to the Pro Bowl last year.

"Aaron Glenn is a defensive guy, and he could see that after the trades last year [of defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner], he had nothing to build around," an AFC executive told me. "He still needs to find stars, but now he has a foundation, at least in the short term. He can start to build a program, even if most of these guys won’t be around when the Jets are finally good."

The Jets didn’t get a lot of praise for their decision to trade for Geno Smith and make him their quarterback, but the executive told me, "It’s not like they had good options. At least he didn’t cost them much."

As for the Raiders, their situation was complicated by the collapse of the Maxx Crosby trade — a deal the assistant GM told me "would’ve made their offseason a grand slam." He said their spending "was a little crazier [than the Jets’], but they had cap room to burn, so who cares? And if they had gotten two first-round picks on top of that for a player who didn’t want to be there? Wow."

Even without those picks, the Raiders still got the No. 1 center on the market (Tyler Linderbaum, three years, $81 million), a sleeper at receiver (Jalen Nailor, three years, $35 million) and a trio of solid defensive players (edge rusher Kwitty Paye for three years, $48 million; linbebacker Quay Walker for three years, $40.5 million and linebacker Nakobe Dean for three years, $36 million).

"They’re all about the quarterback," the scout told me of the Raiders, who are expected to draft Fernando Mendoza with the first pick of the draft. "But you can’t say ‘nothing else matters’. They needed to fix the defense so they could keep him in games. They needed to protect him. They had to get him a receiver.

"Forget the prices. They did all that. It wasn’t a franchise-changing [spending] spree, but it was a really solid start."

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Rams make it clear they’re going for it again

Vacchiano: The Los Angeles Rams know they are loaded for a Super Bowl run, and they knew their biggest problem was their secondary.

Consider that hole plugged.

The Rams made a huge, pre-market trade for cornerback Trent McDuffie that cost them a first-round pick and more (not to mention the four-year, $124 million contract they gave him). Then they signed cornerback Jaylen Watson to a three-year, $51 million.

The moves were expensive, but as one NFL executive told me, "How can you not admire them for going for it? They know that with a 38-year-old quarterback, this is their last shot, maybe for a couple of years. So screw the future. Go for it now. If they win the Super Bowl, no one will care if they have to suffer for a couple of years."

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More winners and losers from free agency

Vacchiano: Several other teams came up in conversations with league personnel about winners and losers in free agency:

• The Pittsburgh Steelers earned high marks for signing running back Rico Dowdle and trading for wide receiver Michael Pittman. "Aaron Rodgers can’t carry them, and they know it," one NFL executive told me. "They got him two weapons — a 1,000-yard rusher, and a No. 1 receiver who can be their No. 2 guy. Add in Mike McCarthy’s [offensive] coaching and they’ll be a better team."
• The Kansas City Chiefs got some praise for signing running back Kenneth Walker because, as one scout told me, "he’s the type of player they’ve needed for years." But their secondary was decimated by the loss of McDuffie, Watson and safety Bryan Cook. They lost LB Leo Chenal (Commanders), too. "Spags (defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo) has his work cut out for him," the scout said, "especially if he can’t get that pass rush going again."
• Another team that lost way more players than they signed were the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, who watched Walker (Chiefs), safety Coby Bryant (Bears), cornerback Riq Woolen (Eagles) and edge rusher Boye Mafe (Bengals) all leave in the first few days. "It’s the price of winning a championship," an NFL executive told me. "Everyone suddenly thinks they’re the best player at their position. And everyone thinks they’re worth more than you do."

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Agent: Thumbs up on Malik Willis' deal to Dolphins

Eric D. Williams: In a quarterback market where Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa will make significantly more money from their former teams while playing for their new teams and Daniel Jones signed a deal worth up to $100 million to stay in Indianapolis, an NFL agent pointed to a player with only six starts as one of the best negotiated contracts in free agency.

Yes, the Miami Dolphins' signing of Malik Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million contract that includes $45 million in guaranteed money was one of the best signings in free agency.

"All of these deals are exercises in risk management," the agent told me.

And the Dolphins mitigated some of that risk because of their familiarity with Willis. Head coach Jeff Hafley served as the defensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers while Willis backed up Jordan Love at quarterback. And Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan worked as vice president of player personnel for the Packers before being hired by the Dolphins.

"The most pragmatic deal would be Miami’s Malik Willis deal," the agent told me. "They will deal with the ramifications of a – in hindsight — bad QB deal [Tua] this year. They did a good job of being pragmatic in their new starting QB deal for Willis.

"Given how expensive and risky the QB market is, this Willis deal is spot on in terms of proper value while mitigating the downside risk."

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Commanders' deal with edge rusher Odafe Oweh not as popular, though

Williams: On the other end of the spectrum, the agent pointed to former Los Angeles Chargers edge rusher Odafe Oweh signing a four-year, $100 million deal with the Washington Commanders that includes $68 million in guaranteed money.

Oweh, 27, finished with 7.5 sacks in 12 games with the Chargers are going without a sack in the first five games of the 2025 season with Baltimore, playing 513 snaps between stints with the Ravens and Chargers last season after a midseason trade to L.A. Washington appears to be betting on the potential of a breakout campaign for Oweh, but the agent I spoke with has reservations.

"There’s a reason Baltimore traded him to the Chargers last season," the agent told me. "Moreover, I’m not sure that his one year of production in Los Angeles [relative to his lack of production in Baltimore] equates to $25 million a year to me."