NFL, CFB Weekend Betting Recap: Books Lament 'Knockout Christmas Week' for Bettors
Some wild things impacted NFL Week 16 odds.
Most notably, a legendary comeback — including a very fluky 2-point conversion — in the first game of the week, Thursday’s Rams-Seahawks showdown, and then two touchdowns on the same drive overturned by offensive pass interference in a pivotal Steelers-Lions matchup on Sunday.
The second of those was an unexpected boon for bookmakers and a bust for the public betting masses, as Pittsburgh pulled off the upset road win.
"Steelers outright was good for us. That killed a bunch of moneyline parlays and teasers," SuperBook risk manager Casey Degnon said, surely speaking for sportsbooks across the country.
More on the weekend that was, as multiple oddsmakers recap NFL and college football betting.
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Saving the Steelers
Jaylen Warren helped the Steelers break open a close game with two 45-yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter. The second one gave Pittsburgh a 29-17 lead with 6:41 remaining.
But the Lions got a Jahmyr Gibbs TD with 4:11 left to move within 29-24, then got the ball back with 2:09 remaining, after a Steelers' missed field goal.
Detroit drove to the Pittsburgh 1-yard line, then Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a TD pass from Jared Goff. But that was nullified by offensive pass interference, moving the ball back 10 yards.
The Lions ultimately faced fourth-and-goal at the 9, with Goff again hitting St. Brown, but the wideout got stuffed at the 1 and forced backward. St. Brown then somehow lateraled to Goff, who ran it in.
However, after a lengthy officials conference, St. Brown was called for pass interference, ending the game.
Absolutely wild.
"That was a nice sweat for us, after the missed field goal and the long referee discussion," Degnon said.
Added Degnon’s boss, SuperBook vice president John Murray: "The Steelers were the best result of the day."
For BetMGM, the Steelers-Lions unusual ending capped a good set of results for the book — and a bumpy ride for bettors — in Sunday’s late set of games.
"That was a really good window — the Steelers upsetting the Lions, the Raiders easily covering +14 vs. the Texans, and the Broncos’ loss was good," BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said. "The early window was more mixed, but the late window has it looking like a big day for the book."
Houston, expected to hammer lowly Las Vegas, escaped with a 23-21 home win. And Denver, riding an 11-game win streak, was a 3.5-point home favorite vs. Jacksonville, but tumbled outright 34-20.
Thursday Theatrics
NFL Week 16 odds kicked off with some phenomenal theater in Seattle. By now, you surely know the whole story. In short, the Seahawks stunningly erased a 30-14 fourth-quarter lead, tying it at 30 to force overtime. Then, after the Rams opened OT with a touchdown, Seattle got its own TD and won 38-37 after a third straight successful 2-point conversion.
Seattle was a 1.5-point favorite, so Los Angeles actually covered the point spread. However, the spread didn’t even matter. The public betting masses just wanted lots of scoring, loading up on player prop bets, including Anytime Touchdown parlays. The high-scoring game was a bonanza for bettors.
In fact, that outcome and wins from the Eagles and Bears on Saturday were too much for Caesars Sports to overcome Sunday, as the betting masses won the weekend there.
"Rams vs. Seahawks on Thursday Night Football was the second-biggest win of the NFL season for customers," Caesars head of football trading Joey Feazel said. "The Rams-Seahawks same-game parlays delivered the Christmas bonanza and made it a festive week for bettors, after one game."
Philadelphia topped the Commanders 29-18 as a 7-point road favorite, while Chicago mounted its own stunning rally against the Packers to win 22-16 in overtime as a 1-point home favorite.
"The Eagles and Bears were huge on Saturday for the customers. The big comeback in Chicago was the icing on the yule log. A knockout Christmas week in favor of the customers."
College Football Playoff Payoffs
The four first-round games in College Football Playoff odds saw some back-and-forth between BetMGM’s risk room and its customers. But trading manager Seamus Magee said ultimately BetMGM nudged ahead.
Helping that along was the final game: No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks — a popular favorite, for sure — were covering the hefty 21-point spread much of the way, leading by as much as 35 at 48-13 midway through the third quarter.
But Oregon let off the gas, winning 51-34, with James Madison covering the big number on a touchdown with 1:05 remaining.
"The James Madison back-door cover was a nice way to end Saturday night," Magee said. "Overall, it ended up being an OK weekend for the house. While Miami outright wasn’t great for our pregame [action], our in-play book probably had its best game of the season.
"There was a lot of A&M money coming in while the Aggies were trailing."
Miami ultimately won a rock fight 10-3 as a 3-point road underdog.
Magee said No. 6 Ole Miss’ 41-10 rout of No. 11 Tulane, with the Rebels 17-point home favorites, "wasn’t great but wasn’t really a problem."
And Alabama’s 34-24 Friday night win as a 2-point underdog at Oklahoma fell in the book’s favor too. Magee said BetMGM just needed to avoid Oklahoma winning by exactly 1 point.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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