NFL betting action report: 'Not a good day for the book'

It was a give-and-take weekend between bookmakers and bettors in the NFL playoff odds market. 

Saturday was certainly tremendous for Caesars Sports. That’ll happen when Mattress Mack takes a $500,000 bath on the Houston Texans.

And multiple oddsmakers were pleased with the Packers-49ers outcome.

But Sunday was a different story as home teams and home favorites (Ravens, 49ers, Lions) went 3-1 straight up (SU).

"Not a good day for the book," said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook.

Murray and a host of other bookmakers break down the NFL betting weekend that was and give us a little look ahead for conference championship Sunday.

Result of the Week

The Packers-49ers result Saturday night was almost universally praised by the sportsbooks. One bookmaker after another said the ideal result would be a San Francisco win and a Green Bay cover, with the Packers closing as consensus 10.5-point underdogs.

Your final score: 49ers 24, Packers 21, with a late Christian McCaffrey touchdown run providing the margin of victory.

"That second game Saturday fell perfect," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. "They bet me Green Bay on the moneyline, and the straight bets and teasers were on the 49ers. So 49ers by three was a really good score."

BetMGM Nevada’s Scott Shelton wasn’t complaining about the game’s outcome, though with a caveat.

"Big winner. But we wanted to be done with 49ers futures. They’re our biggest liability, by a mile," Shelton said, alluding to the Super Bowl futures odds market.

But Shelton thinks the Niners’ next foe, the Lions, could remedy that issue. 

Detroit, a 6-point home favorite against Tampa Bay, notched a 31-23 victory on Sunday. San Francisco then opened as a 7-point home favorite against Detroit on the NFC Championship oddsboard.

"We wanted the Lions. We think there’s a better chance for the Lions to upset the 49ers next week," Shelton said.

Sunday Fun Day for Bettors

In Sunday’s opener between the Bucs and Lions, the public betting was on Detroit. At BetMGM, point-spread tickets were running 2.5/1 and spread money more than 3/1 on the Lions. 

As noted above, Detroit won 31-23, covering that spread and cashing for the bulk of bettors.

"Lions and Over was our worst outcome," The SuperBook’s Murray said, noting the total closed at 49.5.

Just by the Lions winning — never mind covering the spread — bettors were in a good spot. That’s because moneyline parlays continued their run through the weekend.

The public masses are notorious for stacking up favorites on moneyline parlay tickets. With Baltimore, San Francisco and Detroit all winning, there was a lot of liability running to Sunday night’s Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills game.

The problem for oddsmakers: Even though the Chiefs were underdogs — though modest, at +2.5 — it was hard to get bettors off Patrick Mahomes & Co. Likewise, Josh Allen and the Bills were plenty popular with the public. So both teams got a lot of parlay play.

Chiefs-Bills was a lose-lose situation for some oddsmakers.

"We had so many parlays both ways," Murray said. "We got hit on some big parlays and teasers."

Added the South Point’s Andrews: "We had live parlays running to both sides."

Zachary Lucas, director of retail sports for TwinSpires Sportsbook, summed up the weekend for many oddsmakers.

"A great Saturday, a so-so Sunday. But overall, it’s been a tremendous playoffs for us," Lucas said.

Mattress Mack Smacked

Caesars Sports needed only the first of four divisional round games to put itself in a very advantageous position. The Houston Texans and Baltimore Ravens were tied 10-10 at halftime, but Baltimore took over in the second half, winning 34-10 as a 10-point home favorite on Saturday.

On Friday night, Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale, the high-rolling Houston furniture store magnate, made a short trip to the Louisiana border to get down on his Texans. He unloaded $500,000 in wagers:

• $210,000 Texans moneyline +345. Potential profit of $724,500, for a total payout of $934,500.
• $263,000 Texans +9.5. Potential profit of $239,090.91, for a total payout of $502,090.91.
• $27,000 Texans +3000 to win the Super Bowl. Potential profit of $810,000, for a total payout of $837,000.

But there were no potential profits or total payouts to be had. Rather, Caesars got a $500,000 jump on the weekend.

Looking Ahead

As noted above, the 49ers are 7-point favorites vs. visiting Detroit. In the AFC Championship odds market, Baltimore is a consensus 3.5-point home favorite vs. Kansas City.

Lucas is fairly certain the public will lean toward Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. And they’ll be on McCaffrey and the Niners, as well.

"It’s early, but I expect we’ll need the Ravens and the Lions," Lucas said Sunday night.

I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie

Big money was dropping all weekend at Vegas sportsbooks and across the nation. The biggest reported bet of all came from this BetMGM customer, who put $500,000 on Ravens moneyline -500 vs. the Texans.

The bettor profited $100,000, for a total payout of $600,000. A 20% return on investment isn’t a bad day’s work, at all. Surely all of us would take that ROI — or even half of that — with our 401(k).

In addition to the half-million dollars in Mattress Mack action, Caesars Sports saw a few major wagers, including:

• $200,000 Chiefs moneyline +130 vs. Bills. Bettor profits $260,000, for a total payout of $460,000.
• $220,000 Ravens -9.5 vs. Texans. Bettor profits $200,000, for a total payout of $420,000.
• $110,000 Bucs +6.5 vs. Lions. A failed 2-point attempt by Tampa was the difference, as the Bucs lost by eight.

Caesars also offloaded some huge Bills Super Bowl liability this weekend. 

Entering the divisional round, a Buffalo championship was Caesars’ worst possible outcome. That was due in no small part to a $30,000 bet at +1700 and a $10,000 bet when the Bills were at their longest Super Bowl odds of +4000. The first bet would’ve profited $510,000, the second $400,000.

The big-bet bonanza is only beginning to ramp up. Conference championship odds, and more so, Super Bowl odds, will invite six-figure wagers. We can expect perhaps a seven-figure wager or two. 

But don’t get caught up in it with your own action. Live vicariously through it, if you like, while wagering within your means.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He's based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas