Ranking the biggest concerns for each AFC North team in 2021
By Randy Mueller
Special to FOX Sports
Very few NFL general managers ever feel great about their teams.
Many of them are glass half-empty guys whose plans always include fallback options for disasters and last resorts. When I was building a team, the very idea that I would be completely satisfied with my roster was completely foreign to me.
To that end, with all 32 teams now settled into their 2021 training camps, this is the first in a series of previews on NFL teams, by division, and what about them would keep me up at night if I were their leader.
Let's start with the AFC North, featuring the defending division champion Pittsburgh Steelers, who play the Dallas Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game on Thursday night (8 p.m. ET on FOX).
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
No team's moves have been criticized more this offseason. The re-commitment to QB Ben Roethlisberger for another year and the remaking of the offensive line are the biggest lightning rods for those outside the building.
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I am going to stick up for both decisions. The Steelers had no choice with Roethlisberger, but I believe GM Kevin Colbert still thinks Mason Rudolph can be the heir apparent. I also think that one more year of Big Ben is his best bridge to that end.
Like Colbert, I think Rudolph has all the skills. He has just been slow to adapt to the speed of the NFL game, relative to the pocket, processing information, and the pace in which he must get the ball out.
These are all legit concerns and things that would keep me up at night. But having this returning group of playoff-level wide receivers plus adding Najee Harris, a first-round pick at running back, are reasons enough to run it back on the personnel side.
The other factor weighing on fans and media alike in Pittsburgh is the offensive line. The names have changed due to injury, retirement and just flat-out poor play. Last season, this was a group that didn’t believe in what it was doing, and it showed on film.
Sure, the changes will take some time to gel, but I actually think getting Zach Banner back at right tackle and adding Trai Turner as a street free agent will upgrade this group. Moving Chukwuma Okorafor to the left side makes sense as well. He’s more athletic than he is strong or powerful.
This is not your father's Steelers power running game. Sure, the moving parts are a work in progress, but from what I gathered from watching film of 2020, it was the offensive scheme that had to change. And it did.
What’s bouncing around in the heads of Colbert and coach Mike Tomlin during this camp is not the players who have changed, but if the scheme can utilize their skill-sets, and are these players buying what the coaches are selling?
On offense, last year they were not. It was design flaws and a broken system that led to two losses to division-foe Cleveland. There were too many runs into an eight-man box, pulling linemen getting knocked backward into ball carriers, and unblocked defenders just blowing up plays in the backfield.
The Steelers were a mess on offense. They're hoping that promoting Matt Canada from QB coach to offensive coordinator will make a difference. The team believes Big Ben can have a productive year by giving him more options downfield, increasing his yards per attempt (6.3), which were awful last year. They also hope the new offensive scheme will be easier for Rudolph and his new challenger in the ring, former Washington QB Dwayne Haskins, to process.
I say all this and haven’t even mentioned a word about defense. That's because getting linebackers Devin Bush and TJ Watt back from injuries allows the powers that be to focus elsewhere.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
At 11-5 in 2020, the Browns are coming off their most successful season in recent memory. GM Andrew Berry and coach Kevin Stefanski have done a great job instilling some much-needed football acumen and process-oriented decision-making with this team.
There is now confidence that there's a plan, not only in their own building but also among the national media as well. Right or wrong, this perception goes a long way toward relevancy in the public eye.
The Browns just re-signed their best running back, Nick Chubb, and have put together one of the league’s best offensive lines. In fact, for my money, it might be THE BEST.
And it’s not just the players who make it so good. They play with technique, they play with attention to detail, hand placement, etc. This is not the norm around the league, so it gives the front office comfort that players are being well-coached.
The team also picked up the option on a TE-2 that I originally didn’t think made sense. David Njoku is now in the fifth year of a rookie deal that pays him north of $6M. However, after watching what he produced in that role last year (19 catches, 213 yards, two TDs), it makes total sense.
The narrative that defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is washed up did not bother the Browns. They really don’t want him for his pass-rush skills as much as they want him as a run defender. If he’s healthy (and that's a big if), that makes total sense. Other GMs and team decision-makers see these moves in the same light. The respect factor is there.
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I think the most impressive part of what the Browns have done in two short years is build depth throughout the roster. They have made smart cap decisions to allow their roster to withstand the rigors of the new 17-game season. They also fit the skill-sets of each player with an offense and defense that actually accentuate the players' strengths.
On offense, they have four running backs, three tight ends and seven or eight offensive linemen who all can play in their system.
Sure, the defense might need an impact interior presence, but the Browns showed at the end of last season that they can overwhelm people upfront on both sides of the ball in what was a total dismantling of the Steelers, TWICE.
Here are a couple potential issues, though, that I’d bet GM Berry, if given some truth serum, thinks about in his office at night.
• Odell Beckham Jr. I am not buying into what some in the media have spun that the Browns would be better off without him. A healthy OBJ takes this team to a different level. He is not only their best receiver, but he's also their best big-play threat. He is their best option to stretch the field, their best route runner, their best option on third down and in the red zone.
And most importantly, he should be Baker Mayfield’s security blanket to stardom.
But … if the drama OBJ is capable of creating causes chaos in the organization, he'll force the Browns to make a tough decision. The bad body language and need for attention, which bring with them the negativism that we have all seen, are the biggest things the Browns have to manage going forward. The new regime has done a great job in creating a "team first" culture: less drama, more work.
My fear would be OBJ has the history to ruin it. In 2020, he produced 23 catches in seven games, 17 of which were for first downs and three more were touchdowns. That’s only three catches that were not impacting directly on moving the chains. He sulks on occasion when he thinks he’s open and the ball goes another way, but that kind of production is worth it.
The success the Browns had in the second half of last season, without him, should humble him a bit. But my guess is he is still a worry for the Browns’ brass.
• Baker Mayfield: He has proven he can function in Stefanski's offense. The question is: In order for him to be elite, can Mayfield make enough big plays, and can he keep plays alive when things don't go just as drawn up on the blackboard? His size and skill-set are never going to allow him to be among the most talented quarterbacks the league, but his accuracy and the preciseness of his mental game (a la Drew Brees) can make him a top-third-of-the-league QB.
Right now, for me, Mayfield is in a big window, somewhere between Kirk Cousins on the lower end and Russell Wilson at the high end. This year’s body of work will determine where he falls in that gap.
• Cody Parkey This may not be a big thing to some, but in a division that boasts the best kicker in modern-day football, the Ravens' Justin Tucker, you can’t ignore the facts when it comes to the Browns' kicker. On career kicks of 30-49 yards, Parkey is just 79-99 or 80%. Tucker, by comparison, is 95%. This is the area where a kicker’s worth is determined. If the Browns are to take the next step, a field goal kicker they can count on is big. Parkey’s inconsistency and ghosts in his closet would worry me.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
It's obvious to even the most inexperienced fan that this is Lamar Jackson’s team. A contract extension and his continued good health are high on the "to-do" list, and both are giving GM Eric DeCosta anxiety.
The style in which Jackson must play to be effective is not "risk adverse," and that alone would scare me if I were committing long-term dollars to him.
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How long can Jackson last at this pace? To that end, a backup of higher quality, with a similar skill-set, would be where the smart money needs to be spent. When Jackson is out, this offense is not renting space in any defensive coordinator’s mind.
And it's not the designed runs; it’s Jackson's ability to improvise that sets him apart for the rest of the league. He’s not a pure passer and he’s not great with the designed runs, but it’s the off-schedule explosions that cause nightmares for defenders. None of this is breaking news. I’m just stating the facts first here.
The Ravens have tried to upgrade Jackson’s targets on the perimeter, and the backfield job now falls fully on second-year RB J.K. Dobbins. The dilemma is: Do the Ravens have enough speed to stretch defenses in the passing game and make them defend differently from a spread-out position? Speed is the one tool that puts a defense on his heels. If I’m John Harbaugh/OC Greg Roman, I’m trying to thin out the box, and I'm not sure if newly signed WR Sammy Watkins or first-round pick Rashod Bateman can do this.
The bigger picture issue is can Roman design an effective passing game with Jackson and the new tools to get the team into the top third in passing offense? That’s what would keep me awake.
The other side of the ball traded two edge players — Matt Judon and his rare combination of size and speed (34 career sacks) AND pure outside speed rusher Yannick Ngakoue, (45 career sacks) — for first-rounder Jayson Oweh, who had zero sacks in 2020 at Penn State, and former Pro Bowler Justin Houston, who is not what he once was. On paper this is a step back, so our outside speed rush gives me pause for concern.
However, I think the Ravens defense is more about the system than any particular player. They set the edge on the outside with physicality and rotate a lot of bodies up front. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale's scheme should allow both fans and staff in Baltimore to "R-E-L-A-X" for yet another fall.
The unsung heroes of this scheme, and where it all starts, just like in Nick Saban’s scheme at Alabama, is right in the middle at nose tackle. Justin Ellis, at 350 pounds, and Brandon Williams, 336 (wink wink), both hold the point of attack as well as any in the business.
As a GM, I know that we are going to hold our own in stopping the run because of this. The next time you watch the Ravens, take a look at the push they get.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
This is where this division falls off. I hate to say it because I have enormous respect for the Brown family and would love to see the Bengals win, but they just don’t have enough bodies to match up with the rest of this division. Thus, this is in all probability an ongoing rebuild again for 2021.
I could not sleep at night rolling this group out on the field each week. The expectations are so low, the excitement level nonexistent, and I think the locker room feels it to the point of accepting mediocrity. The Bengals have always been one of the more loyal franchises to their own people: their coaches, their players, etc. Maybe too loyal at times.
If I were the GM of this group, I might want to bring in an independent set of eyes to evaluate my team and its talent. I liked to do this from time to time wherever I was, just to make sure I was not seeing our team through rose-colored glasses.
The Bengals' situation reminds me of when I got to New Orleans in 2000 to take over a downtrodden and talent-deficient team that had never won a playoff game. I knew what I was getting into with the history of the Saints, but owner Tom Benson committed to me and did whatever was asked from a money standpoint. Aggressive actions, bold talent evaluations, and ownership willing to spend are how we turned it around overnight.
The current system league-wide invites parity and a team to go from last to first, provided that team makes the right decisions very fast. It can’t be done sitting on your hands.
The crazy thing is, the Bengals have stumbled onto the hardest piece to find. In Joe Burrow, a hometown boy from Ohio no less, they have their franchise QB for the next 10 or more years.
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Of course, our last vision of him was laying on the turf after being pummeled into submission with a torn ACL last season. I’m not sure what was worse, the offensive system entrusted in keeping him upright, or the OL group upfront that was overwhelmed physically more times than not?
How to keep Burrow upright and healthy should be priority No. 1 for Cincinnati.
The Bengals have acquired a couple pieces: Joe Mixon is a legit RB weapon, and first-round pick Ja'Marr Chase should be a productive receiver early in his career. Overall, however, this team has relied on bargains released from other teams too often, especially on defense.
This is more about changing a culture and philosophy, and it probably means spending some money for that to happen. Until then, or the Bengals undergo a New England-style influx of adding talent in a hurry, it's going to be more of the same in Cincy.
The good news is, it can be done. Look at the Saints the last 20 years.
Randy Mueller is the former general manager for the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. He spent more than 30 years working in NFL front offices as a talent evaluator. Follow him on Twitter or at muellerfootball.com.