2023 NFL Playoff Scenarios: Who's in, tiebreakers after Week 17 games

By FOX Sports
Updated Dec 31, 2023 11:26 pm EST

Only one full week remains in the 2023 season. A handful of teams have already secured a spot in the postseason, while plenty of playoff berths and seeding remain to be decided.

Here's how the AFC and NFC playoff races are shaping up, with four Sunday afternoon and evening games not yet concluded.

AFC DIVISION LEADERS

  • West: Kansas City (10-6) has clinched the division.
  • East: Miami (11-5) is currently ahead of Buffalo (10-6) for the division lead and has already clinched a playoff berth. The two play each other next week and the winner will clinch the division.
  • South: Jacksonville, Indianapolis and Houston are tied at 9-7, but Jacksonville owns the head-to-head over Indianapolis and is ahead of Houston on tiebreakers despite the two splitting the series. The Jaguars will clinch the division if they win next week against the Titans. If the Jaguars lose, the winner of next week's matchup between the Colts and the Texans will win the division.
  • North: Baltimore (13-3) has clinched the division.

AFC WILD CARD

  • Cleveland has already clinched a playoff berth and will be a wild-card participant.  
  • Buffalo is currently the second wild card at 10-6; the Bills can still win their division if they defeat the Dolphins next week.*Buffalo can still make the playoffs as a wild-card participant with loss against the Dolphins next week if either the Steelers or Jaguars lose as well.
  • Indianapolis is currently in the third wild-card spot at 9-7; the Colts can still win their division but would need the Jaguars to lose and also defeat the Texans next week. *The Colts are currently ahead of the Texans due to owning the head-to-head result against them and are ahead of the Steelers due to also owning the head-to-head against them.
  • Houston (9-7) and Pittsburgh (9-7) are each in the hunt and are mathematically still in play for a wild-card spot.*The Texans are ahead of the Steelers due to owning the head-to-head against them.*The Steelers are ahead of the Bengals due to sweeping them in the regular season.*The Steelers will make the wild card if they win AND the Dolphins win next week, or if they win AND the Titans win.*The Steelers can make the wild card if they lose, but would need the Titans to win next week AND the Broncos to win as well.
  • Denver, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Tennessee, New York, Los Angeles and New England have been eliminated from playoff contention.

AFC NO. 1 SEED

  • Baltimore has clinched the No. 1 overall seed.

NFC DIVISION LEADERS

  • West: San Francisco (11-4) has clinched the division.
  • East: Dallas (11-5) is currently ahead of Philadelphia (11-5) due to having a better record in common games; if both teams win next week, Dallas will clinch the division. The Cowboys play the Commanders and the Eagles face the Giants. Both teams have already clinched a playoff berth.
  • South: Tampa Bay and New Orleans are both 8-8 at the top of the division, but the Buccaneers will clinch the division next week with a win. If the Buccaneers lose and the Saints win next week, the Saints will win the division.
  • North: Detroit (11-5) has clinched the division.

NFC WILD CARD

  • Philadelphia (11-5) has clinched a playoff berth and will at worst be a wild-card participant. (Dallas can still win the NFC East, as mentioned above).
  • The Los Angeles Rams have already clinched a playoff berth. 
  • Green Bay is currently the third wild-card participant at 8-8 and will clinch a playoff berth if it wins next week.
  • Seattle (8-8), New Orleans (8-8), Minnesota (7-9) and Atlanta (7-9) are each in the hunt and are mathematically still in play for a wild-card spot.*Seattle is ahead of New Orleans based on conference record. *Minnesota is ahead of Atlanta due to owning the head-to-head.
  • Chicago, New York, Washington, Arizona and Carolina have been eliminated from playoff contention.

NFC NO. 1 SEED

  • San Francisco has clinched the No. 1 overall seed.

Tiebreakers (two clubs)

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

Tiebreakers (three or more clubs)

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at step 1 of three-club format.)

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory in all games.
  6. Strength of schedule in all games.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

*Above tiebreaker rules via NFL.com