2023 College Football, NFL odds: Best bets for Washington-Oregon State, Eagles-Chiefs

How about that 4-1 last week? 

Needed it. 

I’ve circled three college football bets and two NFL plays. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most. 

Let’s go to work. 

All times ET

No. 21 Kansas State Wildcats (-10, O/U 57) @ No. 25 Kansas Jayhawks (7 p.m., FS1)

I don’t think Jason Bean will play.

The Kansas quarterback took a shot last Saturday against Texas Tech and didn’t return. He’s currently listed as "questionable" for the Sunflower Showdown. 

Assuming the news comes out tomorrow, this line will continue to run to -11 or higher. 

Kansas State’s physical offensive line will allow the Wildcats to do whatever they want, and if the Jayhawks fall behind, I have very little faith in QB3 Cole Ballard getting them back in the game. 

PICK: Kansas State (-10) to win by more than 10 points

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Iowa Hawkeyes (-3, O/U 32) (3:30 p.m., FS1)

This game is gonna be ugly. 

Iowa’s defense basically keeps the Hawkeyes in every outing, and that won’t change. But the loss of top corner and return man Cooper DeJean is a big deal. He’s the one that constantly gets them decent field position so they can kick field goals.

Bielema might roll out Luke Altmyer and John Paddock at quarterback to keep Iowa guessing. The Illini have a smidge more offensive diversity, and I think they’re very live to win outright. 

I-L-L. 

PICK: Illinois (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)

No. 5 Washington Huskies @ No. 11 Oregon State Beavers (-1, O/U 62) (7:30 p.m., ABC)

I’m not overthinking this one. 

Both offenses are legit. Michael Penix operates one of the most efficient passing attacks in the nation, and Oregon State’s secondary will get beat down the field. When the Beavers have the ball, they’ll be able to churn lots of butter on the ground against an overrated Huskies D. 

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White makes this a 40-35 final score, which is obviously much higher than the posted total. When his numbers leap off the page like this, it’s too tough to ignore. 

We’ll be rooting for points in Corvallis. 

PICK: Over 62 points scored by both teams combined

Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams (-1, O/U 46.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS)

This is what I get for waiting tlil Saturday to add my NFL bets.  

Rams +1 was a play for me as discussed on "Bear Bets" this week and money swung the Rams to a 1-point favorite Friday night.

Yes, I still think they're the right side in the game. Sean McVay got two weeks to prepare his team, Matthew Stafford's thumb got much-needed recovery time and receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are healthy and ready to rock. That's good enough for me. 

I'll lay the extra five cents (-115) and go Rams moneyline. 

PICK: Rams (-115 moneyline) to win outright

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, O/U 45) (8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC)

I can't wait for the Taylor Swift Bowl on Monday Night Football. 

... she grew up an Eagles fan, right? 

You don't get many chances to lay a short number with the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium and it's always something you should consider. Patrick Mahomes is the best player on the planet and I'll ride with him at this price all day. 

Since Mahomes became the starter, Kansas City is 12-5 (71%) against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of -3 or less. Obviously, that's not a large sample size, but it's still very impressive. 

The Chiefs' defense is very good, too. Most conversations about K.C. are about the coach, the quarterback, the tight end and the Swifties, but the front office has invested a ton of draft capital in the secondary over the last few years. 

That unit is as good as it's been in the Mahomes era and Chris Jones and George Karlaftis continue to give opposing quarterbacks nightmares. 

Lay the points. 

PICK: Chiefs (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

2023 Record: (25-26-1, -3.8)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.