NFC South playoff scenarios: Bucs, Saints in control, but division still up for grabs
We've been saying it for months: The NFC South is not a very good division, but hey, it's a close division.
With three weeks left, the Bucs and Saints are tied for first at 7-7 and the Falcons are just a game back, so half the division can say it controls its playoff destiny. The Panthers, of course, have two wins and are one of only six NFL teams already eliminated from postseason contention.
It's a good time to lay out all the different ways things can shake out in the next 17 days — that's all that is left of the 2023 regular season. The Bucs are certainly in the best position of the three and the Saints are in much better shape than the Falcons, but it's complicated.
We'll cite the New York Times' NFL playoff simulator a lot here to get a sense of the percentages that are in play. The simulator has the Bucs with a 78% chance of making the playoffs entering this week's games, the Saints at 39% and the Falcons at 8%. Most of that is from winning the division, but there are certainly models where the division can yield a wild card as well.
Bucs: Win next two, clinch the division
Tampa Bay is in great position to win a third straight division title, something that's never happened in its franchise history. The Bucs host the Saints on New Year's Eve, but regardless of that outcome, they'll hold the head-to-head tiebreakers over the Saints and Falcons, so the other two need to win more games than Tampa Bay to win the NFC South.
The Bucs can't clinch anything this weekend, but they have the simplest path to the playoffs: Win the next two games at home against the Jaguars and Saints, they'll clinch on that alone, and could rest starters in Week 18 against the Panthers if they wanted. If they lose to Jacksonville, they can still clinch the division by beating the Saints and Panthers, or with combinations of them winning or Atlanta and New Orleans losing.
The Bucs have enough of an edge that as long as they beat the Saints next week, they can lose to the Jaguars and Panthers and still get in as division champ at 8-9, as long as the Saints and Falcons each lose one other game in the final three weeks.
Whoever the NFC South champ is, they're almost locked into being the No. 4 seed, which likely means hosting the lesser of the Eagles and Cowboys in the wild-card round and being a home playoff underdog while doing so. One lottery-ticket possibility where they get the third seed? Bucs win out, the Vikings beat the Lions twice, Detroit loses its other game and the Vikings win their other game, and then the Bucs are the No. 3 seed with the head-to-head tiebreaker over 10-7 Minnesota.
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Saints: Still control their division-title destiny
The Bucs have the tiebreaker on New Orleans, but if the Saints win their final three games, they win the division, since that would include giving the Bucs an eighth loss as they finish 10-7. Thursday's Saints-Rams game in Los Angeles looms huge as the two teams are also battling for a wild-card spot. With a win, New Orleans jumps up to a 71% to make the playoffs, while a loss sends them down to 21%.
The NFC has a logjam of six teams not currently leading their divisions battling for the last two wild cards. The Saints are in there with the VIkings, Seahawks and Rams (all 7-7), with the Falcons and Packers a game back at 6-8. There are scenarios where 9-8 teams get left out and scenarios where multiple 8-9 teams make the cut. The Saints lose head-to-head tiebreakers with the Vikings and Packers right now, but can beat the Rams and Falcons in their final three games to bump them down a peg.
It's not as clear-cut as the Bucs' path, but if the Saints win their next two games, they have a 96% chance of making the playoffs per the NYT math. If the Saints win both of their next two, the Bucs lose to the Jaguars and the Falcons lose either of their next two, the Saints can clinch a division title by beating Tampa Bay next week.
Win any two of the next three games, the Saints have at least a 78% chance of making the playoffs. Lose two of the next three, they have no better than a 6% chance, which means they need a massive amount of help.
Falcons: Win out, still need some help
Atlanta has just an 8% chance to make the playoffs at 6-8 right now, but if the Falcons win their last three — home against the Colts, then at the Bears and Saints — then that jumps all the way up to 68%, including a 42% shot at the division title.
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This won't be easy, but Falcons fans need to pull for the Saints in the next two weeks. If Atlanta wins the next two and the Saints win against the Rams and Bucs, then Atlanta can clinch a division title by beating the Saints in Week 18. That's just two extra outcomes beyond their control. Another path to an Atlanta division title: Falcons win out, Bucs lose to the Jaguars and Panthers, but beat the Saints. That also gives the NFC South to the Falcons.
Even if Atlanta loses Sunday to fall to 6-9, it would still be mathematically alive for a division crown. If the Bucs lose to the Saints and Panthers and the Saints lose to the Rams, on that alone, Atlanta could win its last two and take the NFC South at 8-9.
Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.