NFC East guide: Expectations, predictions on Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Commanders

By Ralph Vacchiano (FOX Sports NFC East writer) and David Helman (FOX Sports Dallas Cowboys writer)

The NFC East has been two things in recent years — weak and unpredictable. In the past four seasons, only two division teams have won more than nine games, and the six that made the playoffs produced only two postseason wins. 

And there is parity built into their badness. There hasn't been a repeat division champion since 2004 — a league-record span of 18 years.

So yes, the Dallas Cowboys looked like the class of the division last year, posting a splashy 12-5 record before their first-round wipeout against the San Francisco 49ers. But the reloaded Philadelphia Eagles, fresh off a 9-8 season (and 6-2 finish), are right on the Cowboys' heels. And in a division that produced a 7-9 champion just two seasons ago, count out the Washington Commanders and New York Giants at your own risk.

It's a division in which anything can happen, and not all of it will be good. Here's a look at the contenders and the pretenders, some of whom could end up being the same.

Philadelphia Eagles

Overview: When the Eagles started 3-6 last season, the entire city was screaming for a re-do on the hiring of head coach Nick Sirianni and the drafting of quarterback Jalen Hurts. Then something magical happened. They went on a 6-2 run to finish the season and made the playoffs. Suddenly, Philadelphia was a city with Super Bowl dreams.

Maybe that's a little premature, considering the Eagles didn't face a single playoff team in that 6-2 run. But beyond the hysteria, there is a lot to like about this team. The Eagles are built the way winners are often built — with power along the offensive and defensive lines. And GM Howie Roseman has been aggressive about adding talent, whether it's through big trades for WR A.J. Brown and CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, or big signings of players such as edge rusher Haason Reddick and cornerback James Bradberry.

The added talent has left them feeling loaded, especially if Hurts can quickly become the quarterback they believe he will be. He will again be part of a powerful rushing attack, but now, with the addition of Brown, Hurts has some serious weapons in the passing game. He has Brown, last year's No. 1 pick in DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert. The group isn't very deep, but on the surface it's pretty good.

All the ingredients are there for the Eagles to be a dangerous team in the NFC East, and maybe even a sneaky contender in a conference without many clear powerhouse teams. Of course, that's only if Hurts really can take that next step and if the second half of last season wasn't just a big fluke.

Strengths: The Eagles were the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL last season, but they did it without the traditional workhorse back. In fact, Hurts (784 yards, 10 touchdowns) was their leading rusher. They would've gotten more from RB Miles Sanders (754 yards), but he missed five games (and notably missed time with a hamstring injury this summer). They also got triple-digit yards from three other backs — Boston Scott (373), Jordan Howard (406) and Kenneth Gainwell (291). 

Are Sanders, Scott or Gainwell (Howard is gone) good enough to feature? Maybe it doesn't matter. Philly's line is strong, they all run well, and if Hurts and Brown can open up the passing game, there should be room to run even more.

Breakout Player: Goedert had a solid 56 catches for 830 yards and four touchdowns last season, which is impressive under the circumstances. He split tight end duties with Zach Ertz for the first six games last season. After that, he was really the No. 2 option in the offense, drawing plenty of defensive attention behind a small receiver in Smith, who rarely worked the middle of the field. Now Goedert is the man at tight end, and Brown was acquired to draw away coverage. The big, tough and speedy Goedert should have a lot more room to work, and his numbers could go way up.

Win-Loss prediction: When a team can run like the Eagles, dominate the lines of scrimmage, and potentially rush the passer if Reddick lives up to his contract, they can win a lot of games — especially in a weak division. The key to how many games they win is Hurts. Betting on him taking a leap in the second season under Sirianni seems wise, because he was effective and dangerous last year while trying to learn a new scheme in his first year as a starter. Now he knows the plays, has a good friend in Brown as a weapon, and plenty of pieces around him. He could be a Pro Bowler. And the Eagles could be good. Prediction: 10-7.

Dallas Cowboys

Overview: We're about to find out just how much Dak Prescott can do for this franchise.

That's the thought surrounding the Cowboys after an offseason you could justifiably call horrific. There was the coaching drama of January and February, after a disappointing playoff exit, and it was immediately followed by major roster attrition. Amari Cooper was traded, La'el Collins was cut and several big-time members of last year's team moved on in free agency.

The hits have kept coming all the way up to this month. Tyron Smith has been sidelined by a knee injury until at least December, further shuffling an offensive line that already looked like a question mark. The Cowboys brought in 40-year-old Jason Peters to offset the loss, and they'll ask rookie Tyler Smith to start at left tackle early in the season.

That leaves Prescott to make do with less. True, he still has CeeDee Lamb, as well as Ezekiel Elliott and a solid tight end in Dalton Schultz. But the supporting cast looks decidedly worse than the one that won 12 games and the NFC East last season — even if the Cowboys don't want to admit that.

Regardless of how the roster looks, the expectations are always going to be high in Dallas. If the Cowboys are going to meet them, it'll be largely on Prescott to have his best season so far.

Strength: This feels weird to type, but the Cowboys may be able to rely on a strong defense while they sort out their issues on offense.

Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are back, and the additions of Dante Fowler Jr., Anthony Barr and rookie defensive end Sam Williams might make this the scariest Dallas pass rush we've seen in a decade. On the back end, every key member of last year's secondary is back — most notably Trevon Diggs, who led the league with 11 interceptions last season.

History suggests the Cowboys aren't going to lead the league in takeaways two years in a row, but this is a unit with a lot of talent. More importantly, it's a group that also returns defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, who was a hot head-coaching candidate after turning the Cowboys into one of the league's best defenses last season.

That combination of coaching and personnel should keep them in almost every game they play.

Breakout Player: Is it cheating to call Schultz a breakout player? The guy is already playing on a $10.9 million franchise tag, so he's clearly pretty good. But he appears to be primed to make an even bigger leap.

We already know Schultz is one of Prescott's favorite targets, but now he's featured in an offense that suddenly has far fewer playmakers. With opposing defenses keying on Lamb, the opportunity is there for Schultz to establish himself as one of the game's most productive tight ends.

Win-Loss prediction: It's amazing the way one injury can change your opinion of a team. With Tyron Smith healthy and playing at a Pro Bowl level, this looked like a team capable of winning 10 games and a second straight NFC East title. Maybe that's still possible, but the margin for error looks a lot thinner than it did two weeks ago. My best guess is the Cowboys manage about a .500 record, and we'll see if that's good enough for the division crown. Prediction: 9-8.

Washington Commanders

Overview: When the Commanders brought in Ron Rivera in 2020, there was hope he would end their era of chaos and dysfunction and restore luster and respectability to the franchise. And maybe someday he will.

But his first two seasons have been a weird swirl of instability. They did win the division in his first year, but it was with a 7-9 record. Last season they were 7-10, which led them to a frantic offseason search for a new quarterback. They landed on Carson Wentz, who comes from Indianapolis (and before that, Philadelphia) as damaged goods.

He'll also be the Commanders' sixth starting quarterback in Rivera's two seasons.

That's crazy, but if their big gamble on Wentz — $28 million this year alone, as well as significant Day 2 draft equity — pays off, the turnaround could be quick. They've got some good weapons around him. Receiver Terry McLaurin is an overlooked gem who had 77 catches for 1,053 yards last season even though Pro Football Focus indicated only 62.7% of balls thrown to him were catchable. They've got a good running back in Antonio Gibson, a potential weapon in tight end Logan Thomas and maybe more help if receiver Curtis Samuel is healthy and first-rounder Jahan Dotson can contribute quickly, too.

The defense is a little questionable, especially with Chase Young out the first four weeks. But the team's fortunes hinge on Wentz. He has put up good numbers at his past two stops, but with plenty of baggage. He could, however, provide stability to a franchise that has torn through 10 different starting quarterbacks over the past four seasons.

Strength: Washington has a strong and diverse running back group and the potential to have one of the NFL's best running games. Gibson is an ideal lead back (1,037 rushing yards last season), and he and J.D. McKissic combined for 85 catches for 691 yards last year. The Commanders hoped to get even more power from rookie Brian Robinson, but he was shot in the leg in a robbery attempt late in camp. He is expected to recover fully, but he will be out at least the first four games.

Breakout Player: McLaurin has somehow managed to catch 164 passes for 2,171 yards and nine touchdowns over the past two seasons with six different quarterbacks throwing to him — and none doing it particularly well. He is one of the most underrated receivers in the NFL, and many believe he has elite potential with the right quarterback and situation. Maybe this is it. Wentz has been up and down at times, but he's generally pretty accurate and has a strong arm. McLaurin should be the biggest beneficiary of that.

Win-Loss prediction: With better quarterback play, the Commanders believe they would've been a playoff contender last season. That's probably not true given their other issues, especially on defense, but there's no doubt Wentz will provide a boost. The Young-less defense is still a big issue, though, and their offensive line could be a problem, too. Depth is also a big concern. They should be able to move the ball and score points. That probably keeps them in playoff contention into December, but they'll probably fall just short. Prediction: 8-9.

New York Giants

Overview: If it wasn't already clear that this would be a rebuilding season, GM Joe Schoen issued a reminder at the end of training camp when he declined to answer questions about expectations and said instead, "We're going to do the best with what we have."

That hardly inspiring message is because he knows the truth — that his primary job this season is to clean up a mess of a roster and salary cap left behind by former GM Dave Gettleman. There are holes everywhere, and Schoen didn't have the money to fill them, which means this rebuilding process was always going to take a few years.

What do the Giants have? A heck of a running back in Saquon Barkley, if he can stay healthy. A veteran offensive line that should be better than last season's group, mostly because it couldn't possibly be worse. They also have a new coach in Brian Daboll who was a terrific playcaller as the offensive coordinator of the Buffalo Bills, though it remains to be seen if he'll look as smart with Daniel Jones as his quarterback.

If Jones is good, if Barkley is healthy, if receiver Kenny Golladay starts playing up to his $72 million contract, if the line holds together, if rookie edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux recovers from his knee injury and plays like the dominant pass rusher the Giants think he is, then they could be a decent team. But that's a lot of ifs for a team that hasn't seen much go right the past 10 seasons.

Strength: It's really hard to find one, but it could potentially be New York's running game. Barkley is an All-Pro talent who showed as a rookie that he can be a dangerous runner and a big weapon in the passing game. But that was four years and many injuries ago. He swears he's healthy now that he's more than a year removed from ACL surgery, and he sure looked good in camp this summer. With a better line in front of him, Barkley could be a huge weapon, which certainly will help out Jones.

Breakout Player: WR Kadarius Toney, New York's first-round pick from a year ago, has a chance to be a superstar. But he comes with the same caveat as everyone else — if he stays healthy. He got off to a very slow start because of injuries last season. When he was finally ready to play, he dazzled for two games, including a 10-catch, 189-yard performance in Dallas in Week 5. But he was never fully healthy again. And, perhaps ominously, he was hurt most of this summer, too.

Win-Loss prediction: The Giants don't have a daunting schedule, so there's an opportunity for them to be mediocre with just a little improvement in some key areas. A lot of that obviously hinges on health, but much of it depends on Jones, too. If he's the franchise quarterback they hope he is, the Giants can be competitive. If not, they'll be punting toward the 2023 draft pretty early. But the ceiling for this group feels like .500. And that's only if everything goes right. With the Giants, it rarely does. Prediction: 6-11.

Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and the Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that he spent 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. A Long Island, N.Y. native and graduate of Syracuse University, he can be found on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing "Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion" about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter @davidhelman_.