New York Giants' rebuilding blueprint: Questions start with QB Daniel Jones

By Randy Mueller
Special to FOX Sports

Editor's Note: As the NFL season winds down, former GM Randy Mueller will offer a "rebuilding blueprint" for teams that need to turn things around. Mueller's series for FOX Sports continues with the New York Giants.

With another season gone bad and no hope for the playoffs, it’s time for fans of eliminated NFL teams to ask, "Do we have anything to hang our hats on?"

That question is being asked inside many NFL facilities. Decision-makers must assess the current landscape as the first step in any rebuild.

Last week in this space, we talked about options for the Seahawks as they prepare for what could be a notable offseason. The smile has returned to my face as we now dive into a team that might have some synergy and/or say in that sleeplessness in Seattle.

Over the past 10 seasons, the New York Giants have a winning percentage of 38%, with just one playoff appearance. It’s safe to say that something has to change. 

If, as rumored, 70-year-old general manager Dave Gettleman retires, the team will be in search of its third GM in six years. Ownership will make a huge statement about the future direction of the franchise with the criteria identified to find the next person to lead the Giants' football operations. But that is just the beginning.

Whether it’s to strengthen the position of coach Joe Judge or add from outside the Giants and Patriots family tree, New York seems to be clearly at a crossroads. After the second season of the Joe Judge experiment, fans and media have plenty of reason to question the process.

Having already replaced an offensive line coach (in 2020) and an offensive coordinator (2021) during his run of less than two seasons, can the former Patriots special-teams coach right the ship, or will he be dumped with the bathwater as well? In this results-based business, questions are surely being asked internally. 

Is Daniel Jones the answer at QB? 

Is the offensive line really this inconsistent? 

Can the Giants afford the fully guaranteed $7.25 million after picking up the fifth-year option on running back Saquon Barkley, the second pick in the 2018 draft? Yes, the option decision was already made, but Barkley's contract travels if he gets traded (more on that later). His up-and-down production and history of injury have to factor in.  

It seems that there are more questions than answers.

Most people inside look the league would consider the Giants' GM position one of the premier jobs in football. It has been seen that way for many years because of the stability of ownership and loyalty to players and employees.

If changes are made, potential GMs will line up in droves. I’ve always believed New York is a market that is best-served by a seasoned, veteran leader. And even though Gettleman’s results have been uneven, I would still say that someone with similar perspective and experience is the best bet to bring Big Blue back from the abyss.  

Just look across town. How’s the "on-the-job training" going for the Jets' young and inexperienced head coach and GM?

Because of the pressure heaped on its professional sports teams, New York is not for everybody. There is no grace period or easy Saturday walkthroughs when you run one of the New York franchises, no matter the sport. You must be ready for everything from the first day on the job! It takes the right kind of person to excel in that kind of environment.

That pressure can make you really good at your job, if you're wired for it. When I worked for and with Nick Saban in Miami, I was never better at my job because of his demands. I showed up every day knowing that I needed to be sharp and at my best. NYC is demanding in a very similar way.

WHERE DO WE START?

The one thing the Giants can hang their hats on is their defense. 

Led by a consistent and respected defensive coordinator, Patrick Graham, this unit has been built with identifiable skill sets and traits to maximize player growth. The talent fits within the system. This is a process that both Judge and Graham learned from the master in New England, Bill Belichick. 

These players are going to be put in positions to advance their skill sets and improve. Yes, it takes time, but the structure is there to upgrade, so I would hope the Giants build on what they have on that side of the ball.

Also, because the system has been well-defined, it's easy to find players to fit and upgrade what is there. All participants, including scouts and coaches, should be able to identify traits and look for the same things when it comes to evaluating players. This is the one chapter in the book the Patriots have written that cannot be denied.

NOW THE PROBLEMS …

Those identifiable job descriptions don’t exist elsewhere on the Giants' roster. 

A similar blueprint needs to be created on offense, but as most would admit, that side of the ball has been a mess. Very few players' skill sets have been advanced, and you could make the case that most have been stunted. 

Look no further than the QB who looks to me like the exact same guy that I evaluated at Duke. Jones has not gotten any better. Three years into his career, he is making the same mistakes. His career is stuck in third gear. 

The decision on whether to pick up the QB's fifth-year option is on the horizon. Until a better option comes along, the Giants probably have no choice but to guarantee that fifth year at a reasonable cost of $21 million. However, that contract would travel well if Jones were to be traded.

The appealing traits are still there, and we see Jones' potential in flashes, but he’s going to need either another offensive system with the Giants or another team to maximize his career. 

That’s why a move with Seattle for Russell Wilson might just make sense. (Of course, this evaluation on Jones would have to be shared by the Seahawks' decision-makers.) Seattle needs draft picks, and the Giants have those to give. Granted, it would take the Giants being willing to overpay in compensation (more on overpaying later) to make it happen, but depending on who is calling the shots in Gotham, it might make sense. 

First, though, before they look to upgrade their parts, the Giants must settle on an offensive scheme and structure.

They need to be honest with their self-assessment. And keep in mind that those of us on the outside don’t have access to all the information that teams use to fully evaluate players (mainly medical information and football IQ data). 

The Giants' offensive line seems to get the most critical reviews. It’s obvious from the outside that they need to get more athletic at right guard and stouter at right tackle. But only those on the inside can assess the mental mistakes in calling protections and the failed adjustments mid-play. This group doesn’t always seem connected. Much discussion as to what the scheme will be needs to be had internally before the Giants start making changes.

Last year’s free-agent signings provided an example of the disconnect between evaluating and valuing, as there is a clear difference between the two terms when putting together your team. The Giants overvalued the additions of tight end Kyle Rudolph (who was the Vikings' third-best TE), wide receiver Kenny Golladay (a one-speed receiver who struggles to get away from tight coverage) and cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (who seems to never stay healthy).

The value the Giants attached to those players, contract-wise, was an emotional response to their not doing enough in the eyes of some to build this team. In my opinion, the Giants were trying to win the media conference and keep the critics at bay. They overpaid.

It reminded me of a situation during my time as GM of the Dolphins. We were a very slow and plodding offense that I wanted to infuse with speed. A former first-round pick of mine (when with the Saints), receiver Donte’ Stallworth, was on the market one offseason. I knew he could really stretch the field, and if we could land him, it would give us a way to force defenses to defend us differently. Nobody wanted to add this guy more than me. 

Our lead contract negotiator (Matt Thomas, who now plays the same role for the Seahawks) was point man on making a deal via Stallworth's agent. The numbers creeped up to the point that it was going to keep us from making a couple of other moves our team needed to make. I felt like we were bidding against ourselves, so Thomas and I pulled the plug on the deal, and we walked away. It crushed me, but I put it behind us and moved on.

A couple of weeks later, Thomas thanked me for choosing that direction. The point is that you have to value players based on what you see on tape and be disciplined enough to not overpay (easier said than done). For that deal, we would have paid a price down the road, same as what the Giants now face.

These contracts are part of the reason the Giants have a mere $3 million currently available in 2022 salary-cap space. I’m not sure Rudolph, Golladay or Jackson fits on a team that will be rebuilding next year.

If there is indeed a new GM, he’ll need to be creative. New York's cap situation could be the roadblock to a more extensive retool and is the one detriment for a new GM with the team. His hands will be somewhat tied, much like Falcons first-year GM Terry Fontenot’s were this past offseason. It makes rebuilding really difficult and a slower process than anyone would want. 

The Giants renegotiated Rudolph’s 2021 base salary this week to create $300,000 to get them through the current season. That's more credit-card spending that will add to their debt in 2022. 

Rebuilding an NFL team is really difficult, and the moving parts are constantly changing the landscape and the targets. It’s all about maximizing timing and options, but each NFL rebuild comes with its own challenges and circumstances. It’s not as easy as some think.

Randy Mueller is the former general manager for the Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Miami Dolphins. He spent more than 30 years working in NFL front offices as a talent evaluator. Follow him on Twitter or at muellerfootball.com.