New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers: Preview, Odds, Prediction
The New England Patriots will be playing the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night for the AFC Championship. Here is all the info you’ll need to know.
Two of the most storied franchises of the modern NFL face-off in the playoffs for the first time since January 23, 2005 when rookie Ben Roethlisberger lost to Tom Brady on the way to his third Super Bowl victory. Amazingly, although both teams have been perennial playoff teams, they have managed to avoid each other for over a decade in the postseason.
Pittsburgh is coming off an impressive road win in Kansas City last Sunday night piling up 389 total yards off offense while holding Kansas City the Chiefs to just 227 total yards (all stats from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted). Le’Veon Bell led the way for the Steelers with 170 yards rushing on 30 carries.
For New England, it was another sloppy Divisional Round game as they won 34-16 over the Houston Texans. The Texans’ strong defense held the Patriots seemingly in check but still allowed 27 points to the offense. New England overcame a slow start (just as they had done against Baltimore after the 2014 regular season) to pull out a comfortable victory.
More from Musket Fire
It is time to get ready for the New England Patriots facing off against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship game on Sunday. The game is at Gillette Stadium on CBS on Sunday, January 22, 2017 at 6:40PM. Phil Simms and Jim Nantz will be in the studio with Tracy Wolfson on the sidelines.
In the local Boston market the game will be carried on WBZ-TV channel 4. On local radio, Bob Socci and Scott Zolak can be hear on the Patriots Radio Network flagship station, 98.5FM the Sports Hub. Nationally, the game is heard on Westwood One with Dan Fouts and Kevin Harlan calling the game and Ross Tucker on the sidelines.
PREVIEW:
The New England Patriots are facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in a rematch of their Week 7 matchup. The Patriots won 27-16 in that game which featured an undermanned Steelers team which was missing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. New England overcame two turnovers and shut down Le’Veon Bell to win the game which was closer than the score indicated.
The Patriots are facing a Steelers team that is coming off a huge road win over the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional round. While the Patriots struggled to put away a Houston team with a terrible offense (but underrated defense), the Steelers beat one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL without scoring a touchdown.
With Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown all healthy, the Steelers’ offense remains dangerous. This trio is probably the most dangerous trio in the NFL since Dallas had Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, and Michael Irvin lighting up defenses in the 1990s. Roethlisberger is a slam-dunk Hall of Fame quarterback, Bell is arguably the best running back currently (a case could be made for Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson or LeSean McCoy), and Brown is a top-three if not the best wide receiver in the NFL (Julio Jones or A.J. Green could possibly be considered a tick ahead).
New England’s defense remains difficult to figure out how good they are in 2016. They have faced a line-up of bad quarterbacks this season. Beating Brock Osweiler (twice), Landry Jones, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Matt Moore, Trevor Siemian, Jared Goff, and Colin Kaepernick is hardly a group that truly a defense.
The Patriots’ offense has matched-up well against the Steelers in the Belichick era. Pittsburgh has a strong front-seven and a young secondary. Their pass defense has improved since struggling early in 2016. The Steelers success has been predicated on the edge pressure from James Harrison and Bud Dupree.
Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the Patriots’ offensive line is strongest on the edges with Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon. Inside pressure without blitzing slows the Patriots’ offense, but the Steelers’ only interior rusher (Cameron Heyward) of note is on injured reserve. Interior defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt has four sacks, but he rarely is very disruptive as a pass-rusher.
The other problem for Pittsburgh is their zone defense. While Ryan Shazier is a ball-hawk in the middle of the defense, he–or fellow inside linebacker Lawrence Timmons–is often stuck in coverage of tight ends and even wide receivers. They are great tacklers and most teams do not have the discipline pile up short passes and put together double-digit drives.
The Patriots’ offense is built exactly to do what the Steelers allow on defense. Brady will take the open underneath route to Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, tight end Martellus Bennett, or his running backs all night long.
At this point of the season, the game comes down to which team enforces their will on the other. Playing at home gives the Patriots an advantage, but both Dallas and Kansas City learned last week that a home-field advantage only means so much.
ODDS:
ODDS:
Unlike last week against Houston with the double-digit point spreads, the Patriots have not seen the line move much against the Steelers. Opening as 5.5 point favorites on most lines, a flurry of betting on the Patriots pushed the line up to six points in most books.
The line has held steady at six points at almost all the books. There have been the usual outliers coming in for a while at five or 6.5 points, but all the major sportsbooks have been steady at six points.
Part of the spread staying around six points is the disparity of the Steelers’ offense at home and on the road. On the road, the Steelers average 225 yards passing per game on the road versus averaging 255 yards passing per game overall. Their defense remains the same home or away, but New England’s offense is pretty consistent home or away.
New England is 3-0 versus Pittsburgh in their last three games with New England 2-0 versus the spread with one push. New England is 14-3 against the spread this season overall while the Steelers are 11-6 with one push against the spread.
Bovada, BetOnline, MyBookie, 5Dimes, TopBet, BetNow, SportBet, GT Bets, and Intertops are all offering New England as six point favorite. New England has averaged 36.6 points per game in those last three games while the Steelers have averaged just 22.6 points in those games.
With the weather forecast as being cloudy with no precipitation and minimal wind and the temperature around 40 degrees, there is little impact expected. Neither team should have any special advantage due to weather.
Both teams have won nine of their last ten games and both have covered the spread in their last five games.
Feb 4, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; New England Patriots fans hold signs during the Super Bowl XLIX-New England Patriots Parade. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
PREDICTION:
The Steelers have a tough matchup on defense while the Patriots are coming into the game confident against Le’Veon Bell having already held him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries in week seven. Cornerback Malcolm Butler has proved capable of slowing down Antonio Brown and the Steelers will likely miss having another big play receiver on the outside.
The Steelers’ defense has been impressive lately, but they usually struggle against Tom Brady and his patient passing attack. Without Rob Gronkowski at tight end, the Patriots miss a big play element on offense. However, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis should be able to make plays in space against the Pittsburgh zone defense.
In the end, if New England can limit their turnovers, they should move on to Super Bowl 51.
New England Patriots 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17