NFL MVP Watch: Is Saints QB Derek Carr’s early production sustainable?
Derek Carr has turned back the clock and is playing some of the best football of his 11-year NFL career to start the season for the New Orleans Saints.
The 33-year-old Carr & Co. lead the NFL in points per game at 45.5. The Saints have scored on their first 16 possessions and already have an impressive 14 plays of 16-plus yards this season.
New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the son of offensive guru and former NFL quarterback Gary Kubiak, has installed his father's scheme, which he sharpened for a season coaching under Kyle Shanahan with the San Francisco 49ers.
The scheme is centered on running the football, thereby creating play-action shots down the field and clean pockets for Carr to operate from. And the results have been eye-opening: Carr is 30 of 39 for 442 yards, with five touchdowns and just one interception for a league-leading 142.4 passer rating. He's been sacked just two times.
According to Next Gen Stats, Carr has completed 11 of 16 downfield pass attempts (10-plus air yards) for 292 yards through two games, with four touchdowns and just one interception.
Can Carr keep it going? We tackle that question here in this week's MVP Watch.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Current MVP Odds: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Mahomes threw for just 151 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. He was picked off twice.
But the Chiefs once again found a way to win, and the expectation is Mahomes will play better on the road against the Atlanta Falcons, who are preparing for this game on a short week after a road victory on Monday over the Philadelphia Eagles.
How Mahomes and the Chiefs replace the production lost by running back Isiah Pacheco (broken leg) will be something to watch. Kansas City has brought back RB Kareem Hunt, so we'll see if he has any juice left this weekend.
2. Josh Allen, Bills
Current MVP Odds: +425 (bet $10 to win $52.50 total)
Allen is still a touchdown machine, responsible for five touchdowns through two games. And so far this season, he's no longer a turnover machine.
One of the reasons for Allen's success in taking care of the football is that Buffalo has protected him up front. Allen has been sacked just twice this season, and his 24% quarterback pressure rate is one of the lowest in the league.
3. Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Current MVP Odds: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Are we finally seeing the Mayfield NFL observers expected when the Cleveland Browns took him with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft? Seems that way. Mayfield has always been accurate, but in his first two NFL stops, with the Browns and the Carolina Panthers, his decision-making wasn't always the best.
But that has changed with the Buccaneers. After leading Tampa Bay to the playoffs and making the Pro Bowl last year, Mayfield has picked up where he left off.
He's tied with Carr for the league lead in touchdown passes (5), is second in completion percentage (73.5%), second in passer rating (129.9) and he's averaging a career-high 9.7 yards per pass attempt.
And Baker has just one interception this season after finishing with a respectable 10 last year.
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4. Derek Carr, Saints
Current MVP Odds: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Kubiak has brought the play-action game and more pre-snap motion to New Orleans, with good results. According to Next Gen Stats, the Saints used play-action on a league-low 13% of their dropbacks in 2023. Through two games this season, New Orleans has used play-action a league-high 51%.
And Carr has been deadly in the play-action game, completing 12 of 17 passes for 193 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception for a 122.9 passer rating.
Play-action is working because of the team's ability to run the football, particularly on the left side behind rookie left tackle Taliese Fuaga and left guard Lucas Patrick. The Saints have rolled up 197 rushing yards and five touchdowns behind those two running to the left side, averaging 4.8 yards per contest.
Alvin Kamara, 29, looks like his old self with a league-leading 290 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns through two games. And the Saints have other explosive playmakers in Rashid Shaheed, Chris Olave, versatile performer Taysom Hill and Jamaal Williams.
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[Related: Tom Brady's LFG Player of the Game Alvin Kamara shows he still has juice at 29]
If the offensive line can stay healthy along with an aging defense still playing well, Carr can serve as a point guard in Kubiak's system. The Saints could be here for the long-term on offense, which would help the veteran QB's MVP case.
5. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Current MVP Odds: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
After an 0-2 start, the Ravens look to get their first win on the road against the Cowboys. The reigning NFL MVP knows he can play better, but he's still top-five in the league with 520 passing yards and top 10 in the NFL with 167 rushing yards through two games.
Specifically, Baltimore needs to execute better in the red zone. Although the Ravens lead the league in total yards (417.5 per game), they are tied for 18th in the red zone (42.9%) and tied for 14th in scoring (21.5 points per game).
Honorable mention: Kyler Murray, C.J. Stroud, Sam Darnold, Saquon Barkley, J.K. Dobbins
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.
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