Mayfield, Wentz and other banged-up QBs: What to expect in NFL Week 3 and beyond
By Dr. Matt Provencher
FOX Sports Injury & Performance Analyst
The first couple weeks of any NFL season are — historically speaking — high-injury periods, so Week 2 of the 2021 campaign should not come as a surprise.
In fact, the data shows that 26.5% of all in-season NFL injuries occur during the first two weeks — a staggering number!
There are many reasons for this, including ragged early season play, conditioning, getting back and settling into the flow of the game, adjustments from the offseason. The good news is that as the season progresses, there tend to be fewer injuries. Still, these early season injuries can be notable and impact a team throughout the rest of the campaign.
One thing that has caught my attention already this season is the shocking number of quarterback injuries. In the early games of Week 2 alone, five of the 18 starting quarterbacks, 28%, left with notable injuries.
Let's examine each of these five QBs and look at the potential seriousness of each injury.
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Taylor suffered a hamstring injury against the Browns and was placed on short-term IR, meaning he'll miss a minimum of three weeks. That lines up with the data, which shows that a player with his injury will miss an average of 2.2 games.
When he returns, according to the data, Taylor will have a 10-to-12% decrease in rushing yards and could endure up to one more sack per game in his first two weeks.
Dalton hurt his left knee against Cincinnati, a non-contact hyperextension injury. The concern is that it could be a potential partial ACL tear, a bone bruise or a bad knee sprain.
We will await confirmation from the Bears' medical staff after an MRI. Our video analysis suggests that Dalton may have at least sprained his ACL or had a deep bruise to the bones of the knee joint. If this is only a sprain or bruise, Dalton could potentially return soon.
The Bears have announced that they will start Justin Fields on Sunday against Cleveland, with Nick Foles in reserve.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Mayfield was hurt while attempting to make a tackle after throwing an interception against the Texans. As he went to make the tackle, Mayfield reached out to the side with his left (non-throwing) arm to stop the player.
The mechanism of the collision is highly consistent with a shoulder injury — specifically to the labrum and what we call a shoulder subluxation. Mayfield was able to return wearing a harness that is typically used to help keep a shoulder stable after a dislocation or subluxation. In fact, the QB could be heard on the sidelines saying that his shoulder "popped in and out." This appears to confirm our analysis of a shoulder labrum injury and shoulder subluxation event.
Fortunately for Mayfield, it's his non-throwing shoulder, otherwise he would miss significant time with this injury. Instead, he can wear a brace that is most likely tied into his pads to keep his shoulder from over-rotating and help prevent it from "popping out" again. This device — known as a "Sully" brace — isn't perfect, but it will help him get through the season.
Mayfield should be able to keep playing, but he may need to have this shoulder surgically addressed in the offseason.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Tagovailoa was injured against Buffalo, landing directly on the left side of his rib cage as he was tackled. The initial worry is for a left rib fracture or even multiple rib fractures. It has been reported that the initial X-rays at the stadium were negative, but he is going to get an MRI. That will provide a key piece of information, as an MRI can easily spot partial fractures or even injuries to the cartilage areas of the rib cage — known as the costochondral junction.
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Dr. Matt Provencher breaks down what he believes the rib injury to Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is and how long he thinks the young QB will be off the field.
Rib fractures in quarterbacks are problematic, as QBs need to have the core stabilized to throw the ball with force and accuracy. Even with a special flak jacket for protection, it is tough to play through fractures or partial breaks, and difficult to return to full play until they are reasonably healed.
We will await additional information from the MRI to determine when Tagovailoa can return, but it looks as though he will likely miss several weeks. When he does return, he'll also likely have decreased performance in terms of throwing yards. In fact, it looks as though additional imaging showed that the ribs are indeed broken, but it is unclear how many, or the magnitude.
Given that the X-rays were normal, this should be a much quicker healing process, but these injuries can take time in quarterbacks, who have to throw against a stable core. We would estimate that Tagovailoa is out at least two-to-three weeks, perhaps longer.
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts
Wentz sustained a significant twisting injury to his ankle against the Los Angeles Rams, as it was rolled up on as he released the ball. This is consistent with an ankle sprain, and there may be some components to a high ankle injury given the mechanism of the collision. Although the medical staff did a great job in terms of taping the ankle and trying to get him back in the game, Wentz was unable to return.
Depending on the severity of the injury and how many ligaments are injured, the data shows that we should expect Wentz to miss an average of 2.2 games, perhaps a bit longer if this is a significant high ankle sprain.
Another complicating factor is that Wentz actually sprained both ankles on the play. This is an unusual scenario, but the play apparently put both ankles in a compromising position. Looking at the video, his right ankle appears to be more severely injured than the left, but both will need time to heal, and our data shows about 2.4 weeks, on average, to get these better.
The bottom line
It looks as though three or four of these five quarterbacks will be out for Week 3 and beyond, which is a large number of starting quarterbacks to lose so early in the season. The good news is that injuries do tend to taper off as an NFL season progresses. Hopefully, that's what will happen in 2021 as well.
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