Lions QB Jared Goff rejoins MVP conversation with historic rebound
Jared Goff is undeniably playing the best football of his nine-year NFL career.
He's one of the reasons the Detroit Lions are the favorites to come out of the NFC to reach the Super Bowl, with a realistic shot at bringing home the Motor City's first Lombardi Trophy.
Goff has always been a deadly accurate passer who throws with good anticipation. But he's raised his level of play this season, posting some historic stats for the top scoring offense in the NFL, with the Lions averaging 33.6 points per game.
Detroit has three wins by at least 38 points this season, while the rest of the league has none.
Goff is the first player in NFL history with a completion percentage of 80% or higher in five games in a single season. He's also the only player in NFL history to have two career games with more than 400 passing yards, four touchdowns and a 158.3 passer rating. Goff's second such game came on Sunday in a decisive victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, just a week after he threw an embarrassing five interceptions in a close win over the Houston Texans.
Some NFL observers still question whether Goff can carry a team, or whether his success is more about Detroit surrounding him with an exceptional group of explosive playmakers and the best offensive line in football.
And while that might be a legitimate argument, Goff still must make the throws and direct the offense. He's been surgical in doing that this season, which is why Detroit is tied for the best record in the NFL at 9-1.
Goff's performance against the Jags moved him from 20/1 to 6/1 in this week's MVP odds. Josh Allen jumped to the top spot after leading the Buffalo Bills to a victory over Patrick Mahomes and the previously undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.
Here's my top five as we head into Week 12.
1. Josh Allen, Bills
Current MVP Odds: +150 (bet $10 to win $25 total)
The Bills are riding an AFC-best six-game winning streak after defeating the Chiefs in Buffalo last week, and Allen certainly has been the catalyst.
Specifically, he has started running the football more to keep the chains moving. In the past six games, Allen has 41 carries for 156 yards and three touchdowns. He has carried the ball 12 times for 43 yards and a score on designed runs during this six-game stretch, per Next Gen Stats.
During the first five games of the year, Allen had just four carries for 23 yards and a score on designed runs.
2. Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Current MVP Odds: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Even the best players have games where they struggle, and that certainly was the case for Jackson in his team's two-point loss on the road to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens scored a season-low 16 points in the loss.
Despite the subpar performance, Jackson still leads the league in passer rating (117.3) and is second in touchdown passes (25) and passing yards (2,876). He also leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards (584).
The race isn't over yet, and Jackson is very much in the mix to win the award again.
3. Jared Goff, Lions
Current MVP Odds: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
The secret sauce to Detroit's success has been Goff hitting pass-catchers in space on in-breaking routes. According to Next Gen Stats, Goff has a league-high 39.3% of his attempts on in-breaking routes, with an NFL-high 1,237 passing yards on those passing attempts.
Detroit's 1,468 yards after catch ranks No. 5 in the league.
4. Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Current MVP Odds: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has Hurts playing more efficient football against the blitz this season. Per Next Gen Stats, Hurts has recorded career-highs in passer rating (111.1), completion percentage (67.5%) and success rate (51.9%) against the blitz.
However, Hurts hasn't been perfect. He's been sacked on 11.5% of his dropbacks against the blitz, the seventh-highest rate in the league and the highest of his pro career.
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5. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
Current MVP Odds: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Arizona is coming off a bye and hosts Seattle in an important NFC West contest this weekend. And the Seahawks have had Murray's number.
He's 2-6 against Seattle in his career, and the Seahawks have sacked Murray 25 times in those games.
Honorable mention: Saquon Barkley, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, Patrick Mahomes
Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on Twitter at @eric_d_williams.
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