Lions at Giants: Preview, Prediction, Odds

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants

The push for the NFC playoffs continues this week at MetLife Stadium, where the New York Giants will close out their 2016 regular season home schedule against the NFC North leading Detroit Lions. There’s a lot at stake for both teams, both of whom have a chance to clinch playoff berths with a win.

The Lions (9-4) can wrap up the NFC North with either a win over the Giants and a loss by the Green Bay Packers, who are at Chicago Sunday; or a tie with the Giants, a Packers loss and a Vikings loss or tie.

The Giants situation is a bit more complex, but still promising. They can clinch their first playoff berth since 2011 with a win over the Lions, a loss by Washington (against Carolina), a Vikings loss or tie and Packers loss or tie.

A win by the Giants will also keep the Dallas Cowboys, whom New York upset Sunday night for the 2-0 head-to-head tiebreaker in the NFC East, from clinching the division. A Giants win against the Lions will also keep the Cowboys from clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Got it?

Good. Now let’s break down both teams’ keys to victory.

Lions Keys to Victory

Keep the Game Close. The Lions offense has done most of their damage in the final 15 minutes of regulation this season, outscoring opponents 100-84 in the fourth quarter. They have a reliable kicker in Matt Prater, who is 28 of 31 in field goals this season, including 9 of 12 on attempts between 40-49 yards and 6 of 6 on attempts of 50-plus yards. If Detroit should fall behind, but manage to keep the score closes, things could get very interesting very quickly.

Limit the Scoring. The Lions defense, run by both head coach Jim Caldwell and defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, have held opponents to 20 points or less in 26 of the team’s 45 games (57.8 percent) played since the start of the 2014 season. The last Lions opponent to top the 20-point mark was the Los Angeles Rams, who the Lions beat, 31-28, in Week 6.

The Giants have scored 14 points (in a losing effort to the Steelers) and 10 points (in the win over Dallas) in the last two weeks and are still waiting for that breakout game on offense where they top 30 points for the first time this season. If the Lions are to have a chance, they will need to make sure that this week is not the week the Giants offense lights up the scoreboard.

Giants Keys to Victory

Ball Security. Last week the Giants turned the ball over three times, two lost fumbles and one interception. As quarterback Eli Manning, the man who had all three of those turnovers, said earlier in the week, you’re not going to win many football games when you turn the ball over and only score 10 points.

The Lions have a league-leading five interceptions this season that have come inside the final two minutes of regulation. Those interceptions, four of which came in games where the score differential was seven points, have obviously helped to squash any comeback attempts by the opponents. So it’s especially imperative that Manning and company treat the ball even better than their first-born.

Take Swipes at the Football. In a conference call with the Giants media, Lions head coach Jim Caldwell tried desperately to duck questions about starting quarterback Matthew Stafford’s injured middle finger on his right hand, pointing out that everyone goes through something this time of year.

He’s not fooling anyone. The middle finger on a quarterback’s throwing hand is a key pressure point on the ball, and with early forecasts calling for a chance of rain on Sunday, Stafford better get used to wearing a glove on his throwing hand quickly because you can bet the ranch the Giants, if they get near him, will be looking to swat the ball out of the quarterback’s grasp.

Odds

Point Spread: New York -4
Moneyline:
Detroit +170, New York -190
Over/Under: 41.5

Prediction

Every week there seems to be a theme among the questions asked by the Giants media, and this week is no different. After their inspiring and hard-fought victory over the Cowboys in a game that had the feel of a playoff game, people are wondering if the Giants are spent emotionally or if they have been supercharged to continue their quest to break a four-season playoff drought.

Early indications are the Giants, who are looking to finish their 2016 regular-season home schedule 7-1, which would be their best mark since 2008, are indeed supercharged, but not so much so that they aren’t dialed in to the challenges of the Lions and what they have to do to overcome what is sure to be a desperate Detroit team that’s looking to wrap up a playoff berth of its own.

Pick: Detroit Lions: 17, New York Giants: 24