Kenny Pickett's hand size: Will it matter in the NFL draft?
By Martin Rogers
FOX Sports Columnist
Hands together now — because it is time to (ironically) applaud the silliest metric that ever made its way into the NFL.
Hands in the air and celebrate — for this thing we’re about to discuss is an undisputed champion when it comes to proving that picking future football superstars is enough of an inexact science that it leads teams and their evaluators down some confounding rabbit holes.
Hands down — the fact highly rated Pitt QB Kenny Pickett has to go through the nonsense that awaits him is the most farcical part of scouting combine, otherwise one of the NFL’s most enjoyable offseason activities.
When it comes to NFL teams choosing their leading draft targets, it is all hands on deck — OK, that’s enough with the pun-making handiwork (oops) — and no snippet of information is considered too small or insignificant.
However, the data point that has taken on a life of its own, seemingly without any real common sense or evidential proof behind it, revolves around the size of a quarterback’s hands.
Size, so the theory goes, matters. Yeah, I know, snicker, snicker. Bigger is better, per prevailing football-think, because it ostensibly allows those blessed with mega-mitts to hold onto the ball more effectively and fumble less, particularly in cold or inclement weather.
It is enough of a thing that no self-respecting QB scout leaves home without a tape measure. It might have been part of the reason why the Green Bay Packers were so high on Jordan Love and therefore sparked the whole Aaron Rodgers discontentment saga.
And it continues to figure in the minds of the coaching community so much that Pickett, long considered the leading QB prospect in this year’s class, now sees that status under some threat — and why the 23-year-old declined to have his span measured during the Senior Bowl.
It is rumored that Pickett’s measurement could be less than nine inches when ruled from his pinkie to the tip of his thumb. That such a thing could be a point of concern is "a complete joke," according to his college head coach, Pat Narduzzi.
Joe Burrow did make a joke out of it, claiming before the 2020 draft that he was "considering retirement after I was informed the football will be slipping out of my tiny hands."
And it is a joke.
Because the scouting scuttlebutt and the realities of pro football don’t match up. Among current QBs, Dak Prescott has huge hands, sized at 10 7/8th inches. Brett Favre was long considered the gold standard, a cold-weather QB with 10 3/8th inch paws. As a result, the Packers love a big-handed QB. Rodgers was measured at 10 1/8th. Love’s hands were the talk of the 2020 combine, at 10 5/8th.
Just one problem there. Favre, with 166 fumbles, had more butter-fingered moments than any QB in NFL history. Meanwhile, by some serendipitous miracle, countless members of the small-handed brigade have survived their awful impediment to have productive careers.
Patrick Mahomes’ hands were small enough to generate pre-draft concern, and he’s done OK, with a Super Bowl ring and a half-billion-dollar contract. Kyler Murray's hands were subject to much debate in 2019 but he’s blossomed into a star.
Burrow’s effort in taking the Cincinnati Bengals to the brink of a championship has certainly made them happy they ignored the hand data two years ago.
Sure, Peyton Manning’s hands were big, but Tom Brady’s hands weren’t especially, at a shade over nine inches. Drew Brees could palm a basketball in his sleep but Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger would have more difficulty. Baker Mayfield — another top pick with much-scrutinized hands — hasn’t been everything the Cleveland Browns would have wanted, but he’s coughed up the rock just 27 times in 60 games. Prescott has 48 fumbles in 85 appearances.
"It is what it is," Pickett told NFL.com recently, with a resigned sigh. "I will get measured at the combine. Definitely, I want to stretch it out as much as I can, because I know how much stock people put into the hand size, even though you throw it well."
Pickett’s case is made even more confusing because he is double-jointed. When he spreads his hand to wrap it around a football, the thumb stretches further than when it is placed flat on a table, which is how they do it at the combine. A football, obviously, isn’t flat.
If Pickett has followed the path of other QBs in recent years, he will have spent some time ahead of the combine doing things to increase the width of his palm, such as deep tissue massage proven to increase the flexibility and the distance when tested. It would all be a big waste of time — if there weren’t still enough evaluators who consider it a thing.
"As a biometric, QB hand size is fundamentally flawed on every level," wrote an ESPN report in 2020. Hand size, according to a USA TODAY study, has "no statistical relationship" to performance.
What it becomes then, is an unfortunate distraction ahead of what looms as an entertaining week. The 2022 NFL Draft is not far away, and we are finally getting back to a point where there is less guesswork surrounding prospects following two years in which the pre-draft process was greatly altered due to COVID.
Pickett threw for a whopping 4,319 yards in his senior season, with 42 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. There are no sure things when it comes to drafting QBs, but he presents well as someone with a genuine shot as a solid career.
He is, he says, a "fearless competitor," who knows how to win and knows how to lead.
All things that matter. Sadly, expect far more talk about one other thing — that doesn’t.
Martin Rogers is a columnist for FOX Sports and the author of the FOX Sports Insider Newsletter. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.