Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins Wild Card Round: Prediction, odds, picks

The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins will play in the AFC Wild Card round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. The Chiefs are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -4). 

The Chiefs enter the postseason having won three of their last four games, while the Dolphins are in the midst of a two-game losing streak. 

Can Miami recover as they prepare for the Kansas City onslaught? 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Dolphins and Chiefs — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Lines

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Miami (+4) 
• Pick OU: Over (44) 
• Prediction: Kansas City 24 - Miami 22

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

Although we have two teams limping into the playoffs, I just can’t get behind the injury-riddled Dolphins. They are ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball, to the point where if I wrote them all down my pen would run out of ink. 

Tua Tagovailoa has two fatal flaws as a quarterback, he struggles in the cold, and he struggles mightily with pressure. He will face both Saturday night with temperatures in the single digits. 

This is not a vintage Chiefs team, but they were able to use last week as a bye, and I think they have enough to advance here. 

PICK: Chiefs (-4) to win by more than 4 points

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Miami

• Game Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• TV: Watch on Peacock

Chiefs vs. Dolphins Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Kansas City has collected three wins versus Miami.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Kansas City has scored 118 points, while Miami has accumulated 111.

Kansas City Betting Info

• In 17 Kansas City games this season, it has 10 wins against the spread.
• The Chiefs are 6-5 ATS this season when playing as at least 4-point favorites.
• Kansas City games this year have hit the over on five of 17 set point totals (29.4%).
• The Chiefs have won 62.5% of the time they have played as the moneyline favorite (10-6).
• Kansas City is 7-3 (winning 70% of its games) when it have played as a moneyline favorite of -218 or shorter.
• Looking at this contest's moneyline, the Chiefs' implied win probability is 68.6%.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City's Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes II ranks sixth in the NFL with 4,183 passing yards in 16 games this year, averaging 261.4 per game with a 67.2% completion percentage and 27 touchdowns (eighth in the NFL) against 14 interceptions.
• He has also rushed for 389 yards (second on the Chiefs) without scoring a touchdown on the ground, while averaging 24.3 rushing yards per game.
• Isiah Pacheco averages 4.6 yards per carry (11th in the NFL) and 66.8 yards per game, and has 935 total rushing yards. He has recorded seven rushing TDs this season.
• He has also hauled in 44 passes (on 49 targets) for 244 receiving yards with two touchdowns. He's averaging 17.4 receiving yards and 3.1 catches per game.
• Rashee Rice has seven touchdown catches this season, and has 79 receptions for 938 yards on 102 targets, while averaging 4.9 catches and 58.6 yards per game.
• Travis Kelce has 93 catches for 984 yards and five touchdowns. He's been targeted 121 times in the air attack, and averages 6.2 receptions and 65.6 yards through 15 games played.

Defense

• Over on defense, Justin Reid has 95 tackles, five TFL, three sacks, and one interception in 2023.
• Trent McDuffie has 80 tackles, three TFL, three sacks, and seven passes defended.
• L'Jarius Sneed has recorded 78 tackles, five TFL, and two interceptions this year. He's third on the Chiefs in tackles.
• So far this season, Chris Jones has 30 tackles, 13 TFL, and 10.5 sacks.

Miami Betting Info

• Miami is 10-7-0 against the spread this year.
• Games involving Miami have hit the over on nine occasions this year.
• This season, the Dolphins have won one out of the six games in which they've been the underdog.
• Miami has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +180.
• The bookmakers' moneyline implies a 35.7% chance of a victory for the Dolphins.

Dolphins Stats

Miami's Key Players

Offense

• Tua Tagovailoa is averaging 8.3 passing yards per attempt (second in the NFL) and 272 yards per game this year, completing 69.3% of his passes on the way to 4,624 total yards (first in the NFL), 29 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) and 14 interceptions through 17 games.
• Tyreek Hill has 1,799 receiving yards (first in the NFL) and 13 touchdowns (first in the NFL) on 119 receptions (second in the NFL), while being targeted 171 times.
• Raheem Mostert is averaging 67.5 rushing yards per game this season (1,012 total yards to rank 10th in the NFL), while scoring 18 rushing touchdowns.
• Mostert has helped out in the passing attack, picking up 175 receiving yards (11.7 per game) on 25 catches (1.7 per game), while being targeted 32 times. He has three receiving touchdowns.
• Devon Achane has 800 rushing yards (second on the Dolphins) and eight rushing touchdowns, while averaging 72.7 yards per game and 7.8 per carry.
• Achane has also added 27 catches (2.5 per game) for 197 yards (17.9 per game) and three receiving touchdowns. He has been on the receiving end of 37 targets.

Defense

• In 2023, Zach Sieler has put up 10 sacks to go with 11 TFL, 63 tackles, and one interception over 17 games.
• Christian Wilkins has 63 tackles, 10 TFL, nine sacks, and two passes defended.
• Andrew Van Ginkel has intercepted one pass on top of 69 tackles, eight TFL, six sacks, and eight passes defended in the 2023 campaign.
• David Long's stats include 110 tackles, nine TFL, one sack, and one pass defended in 17 games

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.