For Bengals QB Joe Burrow to make a strong return, protection will be key

Dr. Matt Provencher
FOX Sports Injury & Performance Analyst

Joe Burrow is back, and the Cincinnati Bengals are eager to realize their potential with the young quarterback at the helm. They’re just going to do it carefully.

The team announced recently that Burrow will not play in Saturday’s preseason opener at Tampa Bay. He might not play in their other two preseason games, either.

Such caution is understandable. The Bengals invested a lot in picking the quarterback No. 1 overall out of LSU in the 2020 NFL Draft. After losing him to a torn ACL and MCL in Week 11 of last season, it's only prudent for the team to bring Burrow back carefully. It wouldn’t make sense, after all, to risk setbacks in games that don’t count in the standings.

"He looks really good," coach Zac Taylor said last week. "It's on us to protect him through that process as well a little bit. But Joe looks good and seems to feel real good."

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While the Bengals should bring Burrow back carefully, the data suggests that Bengals fans shouldn’t be overly worried about him. Yes, it was a daunting injury, but it might not be as daunting as you think, especially for a quarterback.

When quarterbacks return from ACL tears, their numbers usually do not suffer. In fact, in the first season back from such an injury, quarterbacks generally see an increase in both passes completed (+4.5%) and QB Rating (+6.6%).

Quarterbacks have the highest survivorship after ACL reconstruction across all NFL positions, returning for another season 96% of the time, a second season 76% of the time and a third season 63% of the time. For other positions combined, those numbers are 65%, 48% and 35%, respectively.

There are some reasons to be concerned, however, namely when it comes to mobility. 

Quarterbacks tend to take more sacks and rush for fewer yards following ACL surgery. The number of sacks taken increases by more than 10% and sack yards taken increase by 11.8%. Rushing yards, meanwhile, decrease by 21.3%.

All of these facts could prove to be an issue for the Bengals in general and Burrow specifically.

When it comes to mobility, Burrow isn’t a potted plant, but he’s not exactly Lamar Jackson, either. He gained 142 yards on 37 carries in the 10 games before his injury last season, gaining 3.8 yards per carry. A 21.3% decrease would put him at about 112 yards and 3 yards per carry.

The Bengals’ offensive line will be asked to protect Burrow better this season, and that unit was average at best in 2020.

Burrow took 32 sacks in the 10 games before his injury. Only eight QBs took more sacks than that, and most of them played a full season. The exceptions were Sam Darnold, who took 35 sacks in 12 games with the New York Jets, and Carson Wentz, who was sacked a league-leading 50 times despite playing in only 12 contests for the Philadelphia Eagles. 

A quarterback who is only moderately mobile already might be less confident moving in the pocket coming off knee surgery, and playing behind a questionable offensive line could exacerbate the problem. It will be crucial for Burrow’s receivers to get open quickly until Burrow builds back his confidence.

The good news is the Bengals helped Burrow in the 2021 draft, bringing in one of the QB’s former LSU teammates, receiver Ja’Marr Chase, with a first-round selection.

They also drafted three offensive linemen: Clemson’s Jackson Carman (second round), East Carolina’s D’Ante Smith (fourth round) and Georgia’s Trey Hill (sixth round). Carman and Smith have both received some run with the starting unit during camp.

All in all, the odds are pretty good that Burrow will not experience a drop-off from his rookie season. He might even be a little bit better as he matures. 

But the Bengals will have to put a premium on protecting him better in 2021, especially early in the season while he regains his confidence.

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