NFL Stock Watch: Jalen Hurts makes MVP statement; Bill Belichick, Patriots hit new low
After twelve weeks of NFL action, the playoff picture is getting firm at the top of each conference. The Chiefs, Dolphins, Jaguars and Ravens will likely win their divisions with the Eagles, Lions and 49ers firmly in the lead atop the NFC. After those teams, there are 13 squads sitting between 6-5 and 5-7, which is setting up a wild ride for the final wild card spots in each conference.
Here is my stock up and down report for Week 12.
STOCK UP
Sean Payton
Maybe this guy knows how to coach… Sean Payton's Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL after winning their fifth straight game in thumping the Browns at home. The Broncos looked like a disaster after starting 1-5, including a 70-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins. Russell Wilson looked slightly improved but nothing like the player the Broncos believed they traded for. The Broncos defense was poor, not forcing turnovers and allowing too many points.
However, since a Week 6 loss to the Chiefs, the Broncos have been a different team. They've beaten the Packers, Chiefs, Vikings, Bills and Browns in the last five weeks with Wilson playing like his old self and a defense that looks energized.
Wilson is back to making plays with his legs. While he's not able to rush the ball as well as he has in the past, he still has plenty of legs to keep a play alive and find someone down the field. Against Cleveland on Sunday, he was able to move the ball against an excellent Browns defense by finding wide receivers late in the down, and those plays are soul-crushing for an opposing defense. You think you've done your job and nope, it's a completion.
The Broncos defense has not allowed more than 22 points in this five-game winning streak and they have become a turnover-forcing machine. The defense has 16 turnovers gained over this streak, including three against a Browns offense that has tended to give the ball away.
The Broncos have a tough schedule the rest of the way, with the Texans, Chargers twice and Lions, so sneaking into a wild card spot might be tough. However, I think Broncos fans will be excited for 2024 after a strong finish to this season.
Jalen Hurts' MVP statement
Hurts continues to play at an MVP level, and while he was unable to win the award last season due to a late-season injury, he's clearly the leader in the clubhouse after 12 weeks of this season. With the Eagles running their record to 10-1, Hurts is now 24-3 as a starter the last two seasons, a remarkable run that doesn't seem close to ending soon.
Hurts was a modest 18-for-31 for 200 yards and three passing touchdowns in the rain against the Bills, but he also added 65 yards on the ground and two more touchdowns — including the game-winner in overtime.
For the season, Hurts is completing 68 percent of his passes with 15 passing touchdowns and 11 rushing scores. Beyond the impressive numbers, Hurts is the heartbeat of a team that just continues to find ways to win.
On Sunday, Philly rallied for a 37-34 overtime victory. On a Monday night in Kansas City, it was 21-17. Before the bye week, the Eagles beat Dallas by five. This Eagles team knows Hurts is going to make plays for them in clutch moments, so they play without fear of mistakes. They play a confident brand of football.
Hurts' ability to use his legs allows the offense to be so multiple. He's also so calm in the more emotional moments of games. You never see him too high or too low. It's the best quality to have for a franchise quarterback.
The Jaguars avenged their earlier loss to the Texans by beating them in Houston on Sunday. Jacksonville's offense came alive with explosive passing plays they've been missing too often this season. When the Jaguars offense is able to push the ball downfield, they are simply hard to stop.
Trevor Lawrence ended the day 23-for-38 with 364 yards and a touchdown. The Jaguars defense was able to slow down a hot Texans offense. C.J. Stroud threw for more than 300 yards but was sacked four times and pressured a whole bunch. It was a strong showing for their pass rush and something they need moving forward.
Jacksonville now owns a two-game lead in the AFC South with a schedule that's manageable down the stretch. The JAgs face the Bengals and Browns with backup quarterbacks, the Panthers, Titans and Bucs. There's a chance the Jaguars have 12 wins by the end of the regular season.
STOCK DOWN
While their stock is pointing up for potentially drafting in the top two of the draft to secure a future franchise quarterback, the Patriots are embarrassing right now. The once-proud franchise lost 10-7 to the Giants on Sunday. Ten to freaking seven against the Tommy DeVito-led Giants. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is on the hook for this team because he built it. He's the general manager and has to own the drafting of quarterback Mac Jones. Jones is not a starting quarterback in the NFL and he was benched again during Sunday's loss. The Patriots are inching closer to being able to draft college standouts Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, but it seems increasingly likely Belichick will not be around to coach the new quarterback. I still believe Belichick knows how to coach, but he's got bad players because he's not a good general manager. If the Patriots and him part ways, I wonder if anyone will hire him with the understanding that someone else is picking the players.
The Bills are in a fight to secure a wild card spot after Week 12. They lost in a heartbreaker to the Eagles and are now 6-6 on the season. The Bills are 10th in the current AFC standings, and after being the preseason favorites to win the AFC East, this is a position they did not expect to be in. A combination of injuries on defense that has led to a collapse of that unit plus Josh Allen's variance making the offense a roller coaster has led to the .500 season. The Bills have a bye and then games against the Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots and Chargers. If 9-7, and that is probably a tad generous, gets the seventh seed in the AFC, are the Bills for sure winning three of their last five? It's hard to put faith in them right now.
The Lions lost to the Packers on Thanksgiving after needing a late comeback against the Bears the previous week. Just a few weeks ago, there was discussion about them being a viable No. 1 seed in the NFC conference. While the Lions are still having an outstanding season, seven of their eight wins are against teams with a losing record. The one team they've beaten with a winning record was the Chiefs all the way back in Week 1 when Kansas City's wide receivers failed Patrick Mahomes. The Lions lost to the Seahawks at home and were blown out by the Ravens in the two other games against teams with a winning record. It feels fair to lump them with the Dolphins and Cowboys as above-average teams that I don't trust in the playoffs against better competition. They beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones.
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Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.