Jalen Hurts vs. Dak Prescott: Why NFL MVP might be at stake in Sunday's showdown

There might be no one playing better football right now than Dak Prescott. The Dallas Cowboys quarterback is on a remarkable run, putting up video game numbers, and leading the most dangerous offense in the NFL.

And there might be no player better at finding ways for his team to win than Jalen Hurts. It doesn't always look pretty with the battered Philadelphia Eagles quarterback. But he's on his way to one of the best seasons of his career, and he's shown he can beat anyone with both his arm and his legs.

Those two will battle again on Sunday night when the Cowboys (9-3) face the Eagles (10-2) in Dallas with temporary control of the NFC East — and maybe the entire NFC — on the line. But there's something else that may be at stake when Hurts and Prescott take the field.

The winner will likely emerge as the favorite to become the NFL's MVP.

[Related: Embarrassing loss to 49ers leaves Eagles exposed in wide-open NFC race]

They are already two of the favorites to win the award, but the winner of this game will take a huge step forward in the race with just a month to go in the season. In a game between two top-10 offenses, these quarterbacks will undoubtedly be on center stage in what could turn into an epic shootout. And to the voters who'll cast their ballots shortly after the end of the season, this head-to-head matchup of top quarterbacks could mean a lot, especially with both of them on the way to what might be the best seasons of their careers.

Yes, there are other candidates for the award. It's not a two-man race. But on Sunday, the spotlight will belong to Hurts and Prescott. So here's a look at their candidacies for MVP, and what a win in this NFC East showdown would mean to each one:

The MVP case for Jalen Hurts

There has been a feeling all season long that something is just off when it comes to the Eagles quarterback. He's obviously been bothered by an injured left knee. He struggled early with the new scheme and play-calling under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson. He's already thrown 10 interceptions, more than he did in any of his first three seasons.

But all that is really deceptive. Hurts, like the Eagles, always seems to find a way to get the job done when it matters most. That's why the Eagles are 10-2 this season, despite a shaky defense and a running game that has been maddeningly inconsistent. In the big moments — like in recent weeks when they had to climb out of halftime holes against the Chiefs and Bills — the Eagles look to Hurts to calmly make the right reads and big plays to lead them to victory.

And he almost always does.

"Just clutch," is how Eagles coach Nick Sirianni described him after that comeback win over Buffalo two weeks ago. "He's clutch. He's been clutch for this city and clutch for this team for the past three years now."

And oh, by the way, he's also really good. Hurts has completed a career-high 66.5 percent of his passes this season for 2,995 yards and 19 touchdowns. That puts him on pace to break the career highs he set last year (3,701 yards, 22 touchdowns) when he led the Eagles to a Super Bowl and was the runner-up for NFL MVP. Part of his impressive resume last year was his remarkable 13 rushing touchdowns. Well, he's got 12 of those this season with five games to go.

So maybe Hurts isn't quite right, but there are about 25 other NFL quarterbacks who wish they could be that wrong.

The MVP case for Dak Prescott

When the Cowboys quarterback bottomed out with a three-interception nightmare in a blowout loss in San Francisco on Oct. 8, no one was mentioning him in the MVP race. The narrative about him once again was that he couldn't win the big game. There were doubts that he'd ever be a truly elite quarterback.

This is how Prescott responded: In his next seven games, he completed 70.5 percent of his passes (177 of 251) for 2,173 yards with 21 touchdowns and just two interceptions. That's a passer rating of 121.5. The Cowboys are 6-1 in that span, with the only blemish being a 28-23 loss in Philadelphia where Prescott rallied the Cowboys and literally came up inches short of winning or maybe tying the game three times.

He's topped 300 yards passing four times in that span (and threw for 299 yards last week) and topped 400 yards once. He's thrown at least three touchdowns in five of those games, throwing four touchdowns in three of them. The Cowboys have averaged 36.2 points per game during that stretch too, including 42 points per game in the last four weeks.

No wonder Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy insisted Prescott is a "championship-caliber" quarterback. And team owner Jerry Jones added that the way the eighth-year veteran is playing right now, "He's the best he's ever been."

It's hard to argue against that especially considering the biggest knock against Prescott heading into this season was about the 15 interceptions he threw in 12 games last year, not to mention the two he added in the Cowboys' divisional-round playoff loss in San Francisco. So far this season he's thrown only six — and remember, three of those came in that one ugly loss to the 49ers two months ago.

Prescott leads the NFL in touchdown passes (26), he's fifth in passing yards (3,234), and he's tied for second in completion percentage (70.1). He's also got all the momentum right now, riding two months of the best quarterback play Dallas has ever seen.

Prescott vs. Hurts: The head-to-head battle

Hurts won their first meeting back on Nov. 5 by a score of 28-23, but it was hard to walk away from that game and not think Prescott was the better quarterback. His numbers in that game were spectacular — 29 of 44, 374 yards, three touchdowns. 

He also came within inches of maybe winning the game. He threw what should have been a touchdown pass on a fourth down in the fourth quarter where tight end Luke Schoonmaker caught it at the one-inch line. He stepped out of bounds just before getting the ball over the pylon on a two-point conversion later in the quarter that would've given the Cowboys a shot at a game-tying field goal. And his last pass of the game was fumbled by receiver CeeDee Lamb at the Eagles' 4.

Prescott was that close to winning. But that's also an old story for him. And it's also what often happens with the Eagles and Hurts. Hurts only threw for 207 yards and two touchdowns, and ran for 36 yards and a touchdown too, but his two third-quarter touchdown passes proved to be enough.

And that's what their head-to-head battle for MVP might come down to: Is Hurts doing enough? Prescott's numbers are far more eye-popping and they likely will be at the end of the season. But there's a lot to be said for the way Hurts just always seems to do exactly what his team needs for them to win. It helps that his numbers are pretty good too. And it helps that he's one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the league, even on an injured knee. But all that winning is huge.

Prescott will probably have to win a few more games to keep pace with Hurts, just like Hurts will need to keep his numbers up to keep pace with Prescott, especially if he loses this game.

What the game on Sunday means to both

When the MVP voters settle down to fill their ballots out after the season they're not going to look at any one game. But with the stakes of this one so high, and with it coming so late in the year, there is no doubt that the winner is going to come out with an enormous edge.

There's also no doubt that a win would mean a lot more for the MVP candidacy of Prescott. Remember, one of the biggest knocks on him is his supposed inability to win the big game. Those cries got very loud after he was so bad in that horrible, 42-10 loss in San Francisco back on Oct. 8. And they were amplified a little more when he fell short three games later in Philadelphia.

Winning this game, putting the Cowboys in first place in the NFC East, and giving them a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC, would be undeniably very, very big — especially considering the prolific roll he's currently on.

And if Prescott keeps that roll going and his numbers continue to be as dazzling as they are, adding a big win to his resume would be an immeasurable boost. Winning a big game really is the one thing missing from his candidacy. It's also the one thing everyone knows Hurts can do and thinks Prescott can't. A win here over his top competition would have to make him the MVP favorite down the stretch.

For Hurts, a win would certainly help, but no one doubts his ability to win big games. In fact, he gets credit for most of the big wins the Eagles have had over the last two years. What would help him is both a win and a big-time performance — a game where he is clearly the star, and every bit Prescott's equal. That's not always the case statistically because the Eagles have won plenty of games with either defense or a strong running game too.

But that's what Hurts needs to boost his candidacy. He not only needs a big win. He needs a big game for himself, too.

A look at the other serious contenders

It is still a very good bet that the winner of this Hurts-Prescott showdown will emerge from the weekend as the favorite to be the 2023 NFL MVP. But there are still a few other contenders the new favorite will have to hold off over the final month:

49ers QB Brock Purdy: The San Francisco quarterback made quite a statement of his own last Sunday with a 314-yard, four-touchdown performance in that 42-19 beatdown of the Eagles in Philadelphia. He has been very impressive over the past four weeks, averaging 288 passing yards and throwing 11 touchdown passes and just one interception. It's been quite a rebound from a three-game losing streak in October when he threw five interceptions. He's even now the NFL's passer rating leader at 116.1. So he's got a chance, especially if the 49ers finish as the No. 1 seed in the NFC, but he's sometimes overshadowed by his weapons (See: Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel) and his defense.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: His candidacy is hurt by the fact that the Chiefs are only 8-4 and have lost three of their last five and don't look at all like the dominating team they've been in recent years. Mahomes is also on pace for a career-high in interceptions (10 so far) and his numbers are down across the board. But nobody's receivers drop more passes than his. The fact that he's thrown for 3,127 yards and 22 touchdowns with that unimpressive group might be impressive enough to get him some votes if Kansas City finishes strong.

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: The fastest man in the NFL is probably a shoo-in for the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year award as he threatens the 2,000-yard mark in receiving yards (1,481 so far on 93 catches with 12 touchdowns). He is the most dynamic and dangerous player in the NFL and he's got a good case for being in the MVP race too. But no receiver has ever won that award, and he'd have to really set some records down the stretch for that to change.

Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.