Is Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence in a slump or is this who he really is?

Trevor Lawrence's skid from the end of the 2023 season has continued into the first three weeks of 2024. His most recent performance, however, was one of his worst yet during this stretch of poor play.

The Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback completed just 21 of 38 passes for 178 yards, a touchdown and an interception with a 65.5 passer rating in their 47-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Monday. The blowout defeat not only pushed Lawrence's current losing streak to eight games, but it also marked the second time in his career that he's had an eight-game losing streak.

Sitting at 0-3, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said that everything is under evaluation, including who'll start at quarterback.

"There has to be changes, whether it's play design, personnel, everything," Pederson told reporters Monday. "Everything's on the table, let's call it, and those are all things that I have to look at. We have to look at [it] as a staff and make the adjustments."

While Lawrence's job might be in question, there is a pricey consequence if the Jaguars opt to bench the former No. 1 pick. Lawrence received a five-year, $275 million extension in the offseason, making him one of the highest-paid players in league history. The decision came with risk. Lawrence dealt with multiple injuries in 2023 and quarterbacked the Jaguars to five straight losses as the starter to close the season. Jacksonville went from an 8-3 start to a 9-8 finish and missed the postseason.

Still, the Jaguars opted to give Lawrence an extension after he showed promise before his injuries. They made the postseason in 2022 after ending the year on a five-game winning streak and advanced to the divisional round. 

Former NFL quarterback Chase Daniel believes that the Jaguars hitching their wagon to Lawrence after a relatively brief sample size of good play might be the crux of the problem.

"I'm looking at it from the perspective that he was 8-3 last year and the narrative around him got him paid $55 million [per year]," Daniel said on "The Facility." "It's a bigger issue for me. It's a quarterback problem in the NFL. A team sees a guy that can do it sometimes in his career [and says], ‘We're throwing a bunch of money at him because there's no one else better than him right now in college or in the NFL.'"

Daniel pointed to Lawrence's turnovers as the reason why he's "not good" right now. Following Monday's game, Lawrence has turned the ball over 61 times in his career, which is the most committed by any player since he entered the league. Of those 61 turnovers, 21 of them were lost fumbles as he's fumbled the ball 34 times. 

Daniel said the fumbles are "the biggest issue" he has with Lawrence, believing it might be a sign of how the Jaguars quarterback is carrying himself at the moment.  

"When you really break down the film, one, he's not playing with confidence because he's turning the ball over at a rate we haven't really seen in the NFL over the last four seasons," Daniel said. "That's the issue. You look into the play, they're in good positions. He's gotten worse as time's progressed. He's on his second eight-game losing streak of his career."

James Jones viewed Lawrence in a bit of a similar light, but he seemed less forgiving and thinks this is who the quarterback is at this point. 

"He ain't good," Jones said on "The Facility." "I watched this dude last night miss high-school throws. Dudes is running across the middle of the field and he's throwing it way over their head. We've got to stop with the excuses. We give too many of these quarterbacks excuses because they've shown us a five-game stretch where [we say], ‘Oh, he can play.' No! 

"If we really look at Trevor Lawrence over the last couple of years, Trevor Lawrence is an average quarterback in this league — at best."

In some fairness to Lawrence, he had a strong 20-game stretch from Week 9 of the 2022 season through Week 12 of the 2023 season. He threw for 5,019 yards, 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 15-5 record over that span. But outside of that span, Lawrence has gone 5-28 with 33 touchdown passes, 31 interceptions and 12 fumbles lost over 33 starts. 

Based on those below-average numbers for a good portion of Lawrence's career, Emmanuel Acho said that he's played "horrible" when you consider that Lawrence was viewed as a generational prospect ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft. He also compared Lawrence to the quarterback he lost to on Monday. 

"A Rolls [Royce] in Josh Allen pulled up," Acho said on "The Facility." "When that Rolls Royce pulled up in Josh Allen next to that Chrysler 300 in Trevor Lawrence, it's real easy to identify which one was a Chrysler and which one was the Rolls because people tried to tell the world that Trevor Lawrence was a Rolls Royce. The problem is, he ain't got the Rolls Royce rims, tires, wheel, interior or value. Everyone confuses a Chrysler with a Rolls until Josh Allen pulls up."

Allen's career might be the one that some envisioned for Lawrence when he entered the NFL. The Bills quarterback has led his team to a division title in each of the last four seasons, earning a pair of Pro Bowl nods and second-team All-Pro honors. He's also emerged as an early front-runner for MVP this season, scoring nine total touchdowns in his first three games.

[Related: Josh Allen is the new 2024 MVP favorite]

As Allen has flourished after losing his two top receivers from the last few years (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis), Lawrence has thrown for just 560 yards, two touchdowns and an interception so far after the Jaguars revamped their wide receiver room. Daniel insisted that the issue with Lawrence isn't the talent around him and argued that the team shouldn't fire Pederson, either. 

"I can't sit here and rightfully tell you as an analyst, ‘It's because he doesn't have the players,'" Daniel said. "They have Travis Etienne, Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis and Evan Engram, who's hurt so it hurts a little bit. He's not playing with confidence. 

"I don't know what the deal is with him, but he's not playing well right now."

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