Indiana-Alabama, Seahawks-49ers Creating Chaos at Books
The College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers is extremely polarizing.
Pull up the Bear Bets Instagram page if you want proof.
Lots of people in the comments section think Indiana is a paper tiger, an overvalued Big Ten team in a down year for Michigan and Penn State. Others feel Alabama is one-dimensional on offense and truly believe the Tide just aren’t the same killers without Nick Saban roaming the sidelines.
For those wondering, Las Vegas has Indiana favored by 7.
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"It’s been great two-way [action]," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told me. "Wise guys laid me 6.5 with Indiana and others are taking 7 with Alabama. The ticket count is about 2-1 Indiana for now."
"We have more tickets on Indiana," Westgate SuperBook Vice President of Race and Sports John Murray reported. "I do expect to need Bama and especially Bama outright by kickoff. There will be so many Ohio State to Indiana to Georgia moneyline parlays. We’ll need one of those to go down."
Alabama was far from special offensively in the last round against Oklahoma, but the Tide did erase a 17-0 deficit on the road. It’s difficult to envision them winning another playoff game with 28 yards rushing. The Sooners had more first downs, 100 more total yards and had Alabama on the ropes very early.
Close, but no cigar.
"Alabama will win if [quarterback] Ty Simpson plays like a first-round pick," one professional bettor told me. "And he might have to. He might need 30 completions and three touchdown passes to win it.
"I laid 6.5 with Indiana."
To the NFL, we’ve got an absolute doozy this Saturday out west.
The San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, O/U 48.5) for all the marbles at the top of the NFC conference. The winner opens up the path of least resistance to a Super Bowl berth. The loser could be the 5-seed.
"I wouldn’t be surprised if San Fran goes off the favorite," the professional bettor said. "There should be a lot of support for that team at home."
Legendary Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White is bullish with his power ratings. He’s built a system and he trusts it. He makes Seattle a 3-point favorite.
White decided Seattle was a real contender in defeat.
He watched the Seahawks dominate the box score against the L.A. Rams six weeks ago. They had the ball for 38 minutes. They had 414 yards of offense to the Rams’ 249.
So, what happened? Sam Darnold happened.
Darnold hurled four passes … to the other team.
I reminded the bettor of that game and set him up with a Chicago 16" softball lob right over home plate — Saturday is another chance to fade Darnold in a big game.
"Why do you think I like San Fran?" he countered.
That simple?
"I’ll bet against Darnold in this spot every time."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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