How to bet on NFL Week 18: Bettors, bookmakers speak; Big bets on TCU-Georgia

By Patrick Everson
Updated Jan. 5, 2023 3:12 p.m. ET

If you’re betting on NFL Week 18 odds — or, let’s face it, bookmaking on Week 18 — then you’ve got a challenge before you. Teams have widely varying degrees of interest in many of these games.

Sure, several games involve playoff berths and/or playoff seeding, with plenty on the line. But some teams literally have nothing to play for except perhaps draft position.

However, there is one matchup in which everything is on the line for both teams. Much more on that, along with other NFL Week 18 and College Football Playoff betting nuggets, served up right here.

Trending Opposite Directions

In mid-November, the Tennessee Titans were on runs of 7-1 straight up (SU) and 8-0 against the spread (ATS). That put them at 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS overall, well on the way to winning the AFC South and going to the playoffs.

At that same time, the Jacksonville Jaguars were 3-7 SU and 3-6-1 ATS, seemingly destined for another high draft pick.

Since then, however, Tennessee hasn’t won a game (0-6 SU, 0-4-2 ATS), while Jacksonville is on a 5-1 SU and ATS run. On Saturday night, whichever team wins will claim the division title and the AFC’s No. 4 seed. The Jags (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) have overtaken the Titans (7-9 SU, 8-6-2 ATS) and have home-field advantage for the prime-time game.

"This contest will decide the woeful AFC South," WynnBet senior trader John Manica said Wednesday night. "The Jags come in hot and suddenly find themselves one win away from the playoffs. The Titans have lost a few in a row, reeling from injuries and misfortune."

That said, Manica noted Titans running back Derrick Henry (hip) was upgraded to probable after missing last week’s loss to Dallas.

"We took a sharp wager at +6.5 on the Titans and moved immediately to [Jaguars] -5.5. There is no real interest on the Jaguars at -5.5. We went back up [to -6] after a small wager on the Jaguars. The ticket count and opinion are on the Titans early. We will likely need the Jaguars on Saturday if this continues."

The Sharp Side

While acknowledging the trickiness of NFL Week 18 wagering, one sharp bettor still jumped on many early lines.

"The NFL, with an extra game this season, is more difficult than usual to predict what coaches are going to do. It’s another week of wear and tear," he said, before noting the following wagers:

In particular, the bettor likes the Jags on Saturday night.

"Tennessee-Jacksonville is a game everyone is interested in," he said. "The Titans are completely annihilated across the board on the injury front, as they have been for quite some time. Nothing has changed, and they simply don’t have enough talent to compete in the game. Saturday may stall the start for Jacksonville, but inevitably, the Jags will blow the game wide open."

What he’s alluding to is that the Jags are on a short week, playing Saturday, while the Titans actually have a little more rest after losing to Dallas in the Week 17 Thursday nighter.

Then there’s one game in which the line beat the sharp bettor: Chargers at Broncos. He took Los Angeles -3 out of the gate, but late Wednesday afternoon, the line made a huge surge in the other direction. The Chargers are now 2 to 2.5-point road underdogs, suggesting that perhaps QB Justin Herbert will sit out Sunday.

So let’s dive into that game just a bit more, shall we?

Massive Move

On Wednesday, the NFL announced that Sunday’s Ravens-Bengals game would kick off in the early slot, at 1 p.m. ET. Chargers-Broncos is set for 4:25 p.m. ET. If Baltimore loses, Los Angeles would stick as the AFC’s No. 5 seed and would have no need to risk its starters.

Hence, that rush from Chargers -3.5 to Broncos -2 within about an hour late Wednesday afternoon at WynnBet.

"A massive move occurred today," Manica said. "The Chargers will have nothing to play for unless the Ravens pull off the upset as 7-point underdogs against the Bengals. There will be a massive move back to [Chargers] -3 or higher if the Ravens beat the Bengals.

"We took a couple of bets on the way down today, but moved quickly through zero to where we sit now at Denver -2. Denver has nothing to play for, and even with the Chargers’ backups in, it could be a contest."

Back To School

College Football Playoff national championship odds are extremely popular this week, too. Defending national champion Georgia meets upstart TCU at 7:30 p.m. ET Monday, at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

The Bulldogs opened as 13.5-point favorites at FOX Bet. The consensus number across multiple sportsbooks Wednesday night was Georgia -12.5, including at FOX Bet. 

Matthew Griffe, a trader at FOX Bet, said that for much of the season, oddsmakers were reticent to give much attention to the Horned Frogs.

"The first result of any note was TCU’s blowout of Oklahoma," Griffe said of the Horned Frogs’ 55-24 blasting of the Sooners, with TCU a 5-point home underdog on Oct. 1. "It was consistently difficult to consider TCU a top team with the miracle wins [the Horned Frogs] pulled out and the good fortune they had throughout the season. They were constantly facing either injured starting quarterbacks or backups.

"That being said, they just kept scoring 30-40 points against the best the Big 12 had to offer. They also have the luxury of [QB] Max Duggan playing out of his mind this season and willing TCU to wins."

Georgia (14-0 SU, 7-7 ATS) has the SEC pedigree and is the reigning national champion. But TCU (13-1 SU, 10-3-1 ATS) is getting the bulk of early attention on the spread at FOX Bet. Griffe said about 75% of spread tickets are on the Horned Frogs so far.

Steven Hemke, formerly with FOX Bet and now a senior sports trader at Fanatics, understands the desire to back the big underdog Monday night.

"TCU is 10-3-1 against the spread this year, and I see no reason why [the Horned Frogs] can’t cover the number here," Hemke said. "This team played close games, [with] eight of the last nine decided by 10 points or less. They trailed by double digits at the half against Oklahoma State and Kansas State in back-to-back weeks, and still came back to win both."

That was in Weeks 7 and 8, with TCU topping Oklahoma State 43-40 in overtime, then besting K-State 38-28, with both games at home. Granted, Kansas State got a measure of revenge by edging TCU 31-28 in the Big 12 title game. But the Horned Frogs’ full body of work was still enough to get into the CFP.

And hanging a 50-plus burger on Michigan in a 51-45 semifinal win showed TCU deserved to be there.

"TCU can give the Georgia secondary and defense problems, just like it did against Michigan, a team with a better defensive unit, in my opinion," Hemke said. "Whether it takes a late touchdown for the cover or TCU hangs in all game with last year’s national champs, give me TCU plus the points here."

WynnBet junior trader Caden Wickwire said this line might even tick a bit lower. WynnBet opened Georgia -13.5 and is down to -12.5.

"We haven't seen a ton of buyback on the Bulldogs yet, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see this game get a little lower as we approach kick," Wickwire said. "The early money we've seen has been on TCU’s moneyline. At this point, we will be rooting for the Bulldogs to repeat. But there are still a lot of bets to write between now and Monday evening."

NFL Quick Hitters

Let’s jump back to NFL Week 18 odds with insights from WynnBet’s Manica on three more matchups:

  • "The Sunday night contest has opinions on both sides of the game," Manica said of Lions-Packers, with Aaron Rodgers aiming to scramble into the playoffs. "The result of the Rams-Seahawks contest will determine the importance of the game for the Lions. The Packers need a win to clinch the playoff spot. We will see a lot of movement before the Sunday night game, depending on the results for games that take place earlier in the day."
  • "The book will certainly need the Bears on Sunday," Manica said, reiterating that Chicago won’t start Fields against the Vikings. "Nathan Peterman has been declared the starter. We have taken several different sharp wagers on the Vikings and moved aggressively when the news came out that Fields is not going to play."

WynnBet opened the Vikings -1, shot to -4 by Monday afternoon, -6 by Tuesday night, then went to -7.5 Wednesday when the Bears confirmed Fields would sit out.

  • "In a similar situation, the Commanders announced that Sam Howell will be starting at quarterback. This caused another move on Dallas to -7.5," Manica said of a line that opened Cowboys -6 and initially fell back to -4. "We have taken bets on Dallas throughout the week and will need the Commanders on Sunday."
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The Dallas Cowboys are heading into the final week of the regular season intending to play all starters according to Jerry Jones, and this news comes just in time for Colin Cowherd to update his Super Bowl Bubble.

I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie

You’ll never guess which Texas-based bettor is now involved in the College Football Playoff national championship game. OK, maybe you will. Jim "Mattress Mack" McIngvale has a few bets on TCU: three totaling about $2.1 million on the moneyline – meaning the Horned Frogs would have to win the game outright – and another $1 million on TCU +13.

Those wagers were documented Wednesday by FOX Sports. In addition, Caesars Sports noted a couple of other customers who got down on TCU for Monday’s big game with the following bets:

  • $110,000 on TCU +13.5, to win $100,000
  • $80,000 on TCU moneyline +380, to win $304,000

There are still a few days to go, so surely some more high rollers will fire on the national title tilt. I’ll likely jump in, too, but with my typical #ChilisMoney action. And more than likely, it’ll be an in-game wager, aiming to get a better number than what’s available pregame. That’s a fun way to play.

Whichever direction you opt to go on this big football weekend, remember to keep it reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Enjoy those games!

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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