How the Packers overtook the Lions as the favorites to win the NFC North

A month ago, the Lions looked like they could coast to the NFC North title.

The Vikings were imploding, the Packers were a disaster (remember how Mike McCarthy was on the hot seat?), and Lions quarterback Matt Stafford was playing like the NFL's MVP.

It wasn't going to matter that the Lions' defense wasn't holding up its end of the bargain — it was going to take something special for anyone to catch Detroit in the division. 

Well, something special is happening in Green Bay.

Aaron Rodgers warned everyone it might happen too.

"I feel like we can run the table — I really do," Rodgers said after his team fell to 4-6 on the season — two games back of the Lions — following a blowout loss to Washington on Nov. 20.

Since then, Green Bay has rattled off four straight wins — the latest a 30-27 victory over the Bears in Chicago that was won by a 60-yard Aaron Rodgers to Jordy Nelson pass with 36 seconds remaining to set up a game-winning field goal.

That win, paired with the Lions' stifled performance in a loss to the Giants Sunday in New Jersey, puts Green Bay one game back of the Lions with two games left to play.

Yes, the Packers, dead to rights and in "desperate need of a rebuild" a few weeks ago, now control their own playoff destiny: With two wins to close the year, the Packers would claim the NFC North. 

It'll all come down to Week 17: Packers - Lions in Detroit.

That critical contest has loomed large since the schedule was released, it was rendered almost irrelevant by the divergent routes of both teams a few weeks ago.

(The Packers don't even need to beat the Vikings at Lambeau Field to set up the winner-take-all game for the NFC North — though it would certainly help: the Lions play the Cowboys next week, and if they lose that game (making it two straight losses), the division is still in play regardless of what happens in the Green Bay - Minnesota game.)

How did this incredible reverse happen?

The Packers picked the right time to find their offensive mojo, and the Lions picked a bad time to lose the magic that helped them post eight comeback wins so far this season. 

A lot of Green Bay's newfound success has come from Rodgers' arm — he's completing 70 percent of his passes since the loss to Washington, throwing for seven touchdowns and no interceptions over the past four weeks — but he's finally getting some help from the run game: Wide receiver-turned-running back Ty Montgomery has run for 203 yards and three touchdowns in the past two weeks.

Meanwhile, Detroit couldn't muster a touchdown against the Giants defense Sunday — Stafford completed 61 percent of his passes, but he couldn't stretch out the New York secondary, throwing for 273 yards, with 71 of those yards coming in garbage time and 67 coming on a woefully broken coverage by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie that allowed Golden Tate to run up the sideline unfettered.

Frankly, the Lions didn't look all that much different in Sunday's loss compared to their wins this year — they just went up against a good team, the kind they have beaten only once this year (and calling Washington good is a stretch.)

And now the leaders of the pack are chasing — their game against Dallas in Week 16 was supposed to be a tune-up contest without any real pressure for the Lions, but now it's as close to a must-win as any non-elimination contest can be.

Detroit will now need to win at least one (Week 17) and probably two games against good teams to make the postseason.

Two weeks out, that Week 17 contest appears so heavy it's creating its own gravity. Yes, both teams might be able to make the posteason, regardless of who wins that game, but it'll be a de-facto playoff contest at Ford Field — win and you're in.

Right now, that scenario favors the Packers in a big way.

Green Bay has been playing big games for weeks — the wins haven't all been pretty and the competition hasn't always been stout, but they're thriving under the pressure.

Meanwhile, Detroit has no signature wins this season (unless you want to consider a road win in New Orleans a signature win), laid an egg Sunday and will face one of the best teams in the NFL next weekend, leaving the Lions likely to limp into that critical Week 17 matchup.

It could all change if the Lions find another gear and beat the Cowboys in Arlington in Week 16, but right now the Packers have to be considered the favorites to win that Week 17 game and the NFC North.

What a difference a few weeks can make in the NFL.

 

Dieter Kurtenbach is a senior writer for Fox Sports. He can be emailed, tweeted, or Facebooked.