How the Miami Dolphins 2017 season could be better than '16

Oct 23, 2016; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi (23) runs onto the field for player intoriductions prior to the game against the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins made the post-season for the first time in eight years and many are already excited about 2017.

Reading many reports in both the mainstream and local media as well as social media commentary from fans, one thing is certain. No one really knows what will happen in 2017. And there is no way that they should.

Some believe that Miami will fall into a sophomore slump under Adam Gase. Others believe that the incredibly tough schedule will be their demise. Still others want to point to the lack of roster depth and quality starters. Then there is the group who is certain that Miami will never win anything with Ryan Tannehill as the quarterback.

Guess what? I don’t believe any of that at all. In fact, I think 2017 will be one of the Dolphins best seasons ever. And I’m about to show and tell you why. Hold on while I hang up the “homer hat” because if there is one thing I am not, it’s a homer. That title belongs to my brother James….(unbelievable homer).

Let us start with the schedule because when it all comes down to it, it’s all a matter of wins vs. losses vs. the records of the other teams. And if you are going to judge the Dolphins chances in 2017 you have to start within the division.

An interception. A fumble. Two plays that turned the momentum from the Dolphins to the Patriots. Two games that the Dolphins might have won but were not quite ready to win. The Dolphins swept the Jets and Bills and honestly they should be favorites to do so again in 2017. At least against the Jets and once against the Bills.

Miami played New England close and until this year had split with the Patriots the previous three years…with far worse teams. In fact, the Dolphins looked to be taking over the week 17 game with a back-up quarterback, a bunch of back-up defenders, and after spotting the Patriots a big first quarter lead.

If the Dolphins can take four from the Jets and Bills and one from the Patriots, they are 5-1 in the East and positioned to take the division depending on what they do outside of the division.

Obviously we do not know the “when” of next years schedule but we do know the “who and where”. Taking a look outside the division for home games is a good place to start as four non-divisional games will be played in Miami.

The Dolphins have a tough schedule. Of that it is very clear. The AFC West was dominant this year and two of the four teams made the post-season and the other two were competitive, San Diego less than the Broncos.

Miami will host the Oakland Raiders. Traditionally the Dolphins play well at home against West Coast teams so despite the fact that the Raiders played very well this year they are not head and shoulders above the Dolphins at this point. Miami will also host Denver, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee.

Of those games, Tampa Bay and Tennessee should be wins. The Dolphins didn’t beat Tennessee in 2016 but they could have and if they had played them later in the year they very well may have. Tampa is an enigma. They are getting better but will they have a bigger jump in 2017? That is no more clear that Miami’s jump.

Miami needs to win at least two of those games and take the London “home” game against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints are not a good football team and they won’t likely be in 2017 either as they make a lot of changes on defense yet again. Combined with the East games, the Dolphins could have 8 wins without looking at the away games.

San Diego will be tough because the Dolphins struggle on the road out West but the Chargers are going to be in flux. Not just as a team but where they will be playing as well. Miami beat them this year and should be better next season. Carolina is another team that the Dolphins can beat even if the Panthers are healthy. Charlotte is not a hostile environment for visiting teams. That leaves Baltimore, Kansas City, and Atlanta.

While it’s impossible to say Miami will win all of them, winning one of them will help. With 8 victories penciled in with home games and the East, Miami could win three of their road games to improve to 11 wins on the season. It’s not impossible.

In fact, it’s not impossible with the current roster the way it is now.

Apr 30, 2015; Chicago, IL, USA; DeVante Parker (Louisville) poses for a photo after being selected as the number 14th overall pick to the Miami Dolphins in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft at the Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

The Dolphins know they have to make changes to their roster. 21 players will be free agents in some form this year and not all of them will make their way back to South Florida. The Dolphins will have anywhere between $36 and $56 million in cap space to start the league new year in March.

Miami needs to allocate around $6 million for their draft picks and will need working money to use throughout the year but there is no question that the Dolphins will have enough money to make moves in the free agent market.

What we have learned over the last two seasons is that the Dolphins are getting better at how they spend their money. It’s unlikely that the Dolphins are going to make another Ndamukong Suh move any time soon. They likely won’t make even half that splash and they don’t need to.

The Dolphins won’t throw money at players like Olivier Vernon because they need to spread their roster out. Miami is likely to target linebackers and defensive ends but who will come in the draft and who will come in free agency? It’s far cheaper to draft a DE than to pay one on the open market where salaries have soared.

Offensively the Dolphins need to address the offensive guard positions and tight-end. Both of those could and should be addressed in free agency and Miami needs to spend a little more money at the guard position than they have in recent years. With the running ability of Jay Ajayi and the clear indication that the offense is much better when the starting offensive line is on the field, Miami should clearly understand that spending a little more will fix the problem.

Last season Miami spent on aging free agent veterans like Mario Williams and Andre Branch. Branch worked out while Williams did not. There is no reason that they can not supplement the holes and even the depth with cheap veteran options.

Honestly there is no reason to believe that the Dolphins roster won’t be better next season. Unlike previous years, the Dolphins have three top guys reviewing players. Tannenbaum, Grier, and Gase. Tannenbaum has final say but he has repeatedly said that all three come together to make decisions and he only steps in if they are all on different pages.

Free agency is one thing and the draft is another. Miami did well in 2016 with their draft picks. And all of them should continue to contribute and get better in 2017. In fact, the Dolphins got more work out of the 2015 class that was deemed to be almost a bust a year ago.

Jay Ajayi, DeVante Parker, Bobby McCain, Jordan Phillips, and Tony Lippett were all big time contributors this year. And that leads to our final area of improvement. Adam Gase.

Sep 18, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill (17) and Miami Dolphins head coach Adam Gase on the sideline as they take on the New England Patriots in the second half at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots defeated the Miami Dolphins 31-24. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

Over the last ten years if not longer, the Dolphins have watched talented players underperform on their roster. Yet once they were released they excelled for other teams. The question became talent vs. coaching. This year it’s safe to say that the Dolphins were well coached.

Miami was decimated with injuries all season long which makes this years success more impressive. That can be shouldered on the change of vision and culture that was brought to Miami by Adam Gase.

There is no reason to believe that won’t continue in 2017. Regardless of Vance Joseph’s status. The coaches are earning the respect of the players who want to play for him. That will be an attractive element in free agency. More importantly it will be a huge element in the continued development of the Dolphins young roster.

A year ago people wanted Ryan Tannehill out of Miami now a lot of them are changing their tune. Consider that the Dolphins in the last six years have been one of the worst in red-zone offense. In the last eight weeks, Tannehill led the NFL in touchdowns in the red-zone.

Tannehill is learning under Gase and there is still a lot more that needs to be done and Tannehill still has a long way to go but he has made tremendous strides in 2016, especially with his long ball ability which has been sorely lacking in years past.

With so many young players learning the new systems and even learning to play at this level given their inexperience, there is a lot of hope that these players will develop quicker under the coaching staff over the course of this off-season. Consider that last off-season Gase was building his staff and really working with a lot of hold overs from Joe Philbins seasons. From installing a new system on both sides of the ball, the Dolphins finally came together.

Now what happens if they get the pieces that fit those systems?

Will the Dolphins improve in 2017? Will they win 10 games again or 11 or will they, facing a tough group of games, fall back? It’s hard to say but there is a lot of reasons to be optimistic. Miami won against weaker teams this year but the way they won speaks volumes to how far the team has come and while you can’t judge the 2016 team on games against the 49’ers and Browns, you can look at how they performed against teams like the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Patriots and realize this is a team that is getting better.

Fan expectations will be high in 2017 but they should also come with some reservations. The Dolphins expectations will be higher as well but they are starting realize that they can hold their own against just about anyone. By next season, they just might.