How the Julio Jones trade is moving NFL betting lines
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
When the Tennessee Titans acquired Julio Jones from the Atlanta Falcons, bookmakers sharpened their pencils and got to work on the numbers.
Even though the NFL season doesn’t start until the second week of September, many of the football betting markets are a year-round calculation. A move of this magnitude affects team future odds, individual player props and prices on exotic markets like Most Valuable Player.
And when a playoff team like Tennessee adds a superstar like Jones, the hype locomotive only picks up more steam.
"The biggest adjustment came on the Titans’ division number," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me. "Tennessee went from +125 to +105 to win the AFC South." That's the difference between a $10 bet winning you $22.50 total or $20.50 total, so it matters.
"Obviously, the [Indianapolis] Colts are still a very, very strong contender," JBB continued. "It feels like if you’re betting on the Colts, you believe in Carson Wentz at quarterback. The rest of that Indianapolis roster is solid. If we see Wentz play the way he did last year, the Titans could run away with the division. But if Wentz can mirror what [Ryan] Tannehill has done in Tennessee, it’ll be a tight race."
FOX Bet is actually dealing Indianapolis as a minimal AFC South favorite at -105, while Tennessee is next at the aforementioned +105. Jacksonville (+1000) and Houston (+1500) are clearly long shots in a top-heavy division. In addition, the Titans’ Super Bowl number was shortened from +3300 to +2800.
Bookmakers will have their work cut out for them when it comes to posting prop markets for Jones and rising star A.J. Brown. How will Tennessee share the sugar with its two top wideouts?
"That’s a tough one," JBB explained. "If you use historical numbers, Julio is far ahead, but he was in a very different offense. The Falcons threw the ball a lot because they were behind a lot. Compare that to the Titans, who run the ball an absolute load.
"Our initial numbers that we quoted had Julio (O/U 1,350.5 yards) higher than Brown (O/U 1,100.5 yards), but we might make some adjustments before we release them. Personally, I would post fairly similar numbers for both and see where you take the money."
Believe it or not, Tannehill is now 30-to-1 to win the NFL MVP. The only players with lower odds are Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert.
"People will bet Tannehill just because of the Julio trade," JBB said. "But I think it’s a tough ask when you’ve got Derrick Henry there. For as much as Tennessee gives Henry the ball, it will always be somewhat of a detractor for Tannehill’s MVP case – unless they change the way they play. It would take a major offensive philosophy change for him to be able to win an MVP."
I would be remiss if I didn’t remind you that it’s not always easy to drop a star receiver in a new locker room. Personalities and egos are bountiful in the NFL and when receivers aren’t happy, things tend to go off the rails quickly.
"A wide receiver needs to be the final missing piece," JBB opined. "Like when Emmanuel Sanders was acquired by the Niners. It was that one missing piece and they went to the Super Bowl. The other recent one is Antonio Brown to the [Tampa Bay] Buccaneers. And he wasn’t brought in to be the No. 1 receiver.
"Everything else needs to be in place for a move like that to be a catalyst to get a team to the Super Bowl."
Naturally, I’m looking to zig while everybody else zags. You can have your Julio "overs" and your Titans futures. I’ll be busy pouncing on props and exotics for my guy Kyle Pitts in Atlanta. His opportunities will be endless.
"You might see the Falcons use him a slightly different way," JBB suggested. "Remember, they’ve still got Hayden Hurst at tight end. They could certainly use Pitts at receiver, especially down in the red zone. What they lost in Julio is a guy you can throw it up to and Pitts is an even bigger target. They’ll use him in a myriad of ways.
"If you look at the games last season when Julio was out, Calvin Ridley’s yardage numbers went way up, but his touchdown numbers went down. When Atlanta got to the red zone, defenses keyed on Ridley. Pitts should definitely get a lot of touchdown opportunities because of his measurables.
"If Pitts (+900) wins Offensive Rookie of the Year, he’ll do it with big touchdown numbers, not big yardage numbers."
FOX Bet’s trading room already jacked up Pitts’ receiving yardage total to O/U 875.5 from the high 700 range. Somebody is paying attention to the details.
Jones is an amazing talent that strung together several solid seasons in the Peach State. But I’m not so sure that a 32-year-old Jones is a tremendous fit for this ground-and-pound system. And I really have my doubts about Tennessee being a Super Bowl contender.
I also refuse to put my money on a head coach that punts the football down four points on fourth-and-2 from the opponent's 40-yard line in the fourth quarter of a playoff game. Vrabel’s got his rules and I’ve got mine.
"Things like that take time to get over," JBB cracked.
Thing is, I’m not kidding – there’s no chance I bet Tennessee to win anything big. There are too many teams that are much better inside the conference.
"Kansas City will be the standout team in the AFC for the foreseeable future," JBB forecasted. "We loved what we saw from Buffalo last year, especially with Josh Allen’s growth. Baltimore added receiver Sammy Watkins in free agency and that’s big for Lamar Jackson. And a lot of people we respect really like Cleveland. They’ve just got a really talented roster."
"Those four teams will be tough for Tennessee to leap."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.