How important is Alex Smith?

Aug 27, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) talks with head coach Andy Reid during a time out during the first half of the preseason game against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

If you want to start a war among Chiefs fans, you’d be hard-pressed to find a better or easier way than by steering the conversation towards Alex Smith.

To some, he’s exactly the quarterback Andy Reid and the rest of the coaching staff say he is – that is, a QB perfectly molded for this offense. To others, he’s everything that’s wrong with the position, and a total disgrace to the Chiefs and the game of football. While it’s not a very common or popular opinion, I’m somewhere closer to the former of those opinions.

Don’t get me wrong – the way he was playing early this season (really the entirety of the season prior to last week’s game) was unacceptably bad. He was getting happy feet in the pocket, refusing to throw the ball deep, not seeing wide open receivers, and (even though it’s pretty much the only thing anybody could call him truly great at doing) he was missing the short and intermediate throws with regularity. He sucked.

And it’s not just over that sample size – there’s a couple weeks a year where I spend pretty much the whole game with my palm and my face becoming all too familiar with each other. I don’t know why, but he seems to forget how to perform the basic functions of his job every once in a while. I want to stress this, because what I’m about to say is sure to sound controversial at best to some of you.

Alex Smith is a championship-level quarterback.

Dec 6, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) runs for a touchdown against the Oakland Raiders in the first quarter at O.co Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not saying he’s elite (whatever that means), and I’m not even saying he’s great. But what’s undeniable is that Smith can absolutely lead the Chiefs to a Super Bowl victory. I don’t just mean that in the “even Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl” way.

I mean that in the “if he plays at least average football, this team is nearly unbeatable, and he’s usually at least average” way. What am I basing this on? In the last 39 games he’s started (that’s all the games – including the playoffs – since the start of 2014), the Chiefs are 24-3 when his QBR is 51.5 or higher, and 0-12 when it’s lower.

For those unfamiliar with the specifics of QBR, it’s a 0-100 scale, where 0 means you’ve done everything wrong, 100 means you were perfect, and 50 is average. So basically, when Smith is above average, the Chiefs are unbeatable, and when Smith is below average, they can’t win. This tells us a couple things.

The most important takeaway is that as long as Alex Smith isn’t below average (and his accuracy and decision-making alone make that unlikely), the Chiefs are one of the best teams in football. The secondary point to be made is that Smith deserves both a great deal of credit for the Chiefs wins, and an equal amount of blame for their losses. This team goes as far as he takes it.

What does that mean for this week? It means that unless the Saints magically change from the worst defense in the NFL since the beginning of last season into an above average unit, the Chiefs are almost guaranteed to win. What does it mean for the rest of the season?

For starters, it means gameplan to Alex Smith’s strengths, so that he’s above average, and the Chiefs are in the best position to win. This would entail a lot of intermediate passes, and running Spencer Ware and Jamaal Charles for a total of at least 30 carries per game to set up some play action and open up space for some quick throws.

If the Chiefs can do that successfully, they’re absolutely one of the best teams in the league – thanks in no small part to Alex Smith. He’s vitally important to the Chiefs success.