How good is Lamar Jackson? Plus, Bills' new offense, ascending teams

By Warren Sharp
FOX Sports NFL Writer

At this time last year, the Bills were 2-1. Exactly as they are this season. But their offense felt very different in 2021.

Through the first three weeks last season, the Bills led at halftime in every single game. In fact, their average halftime lead was 12.3 points in those three games. That was No. 1 in the NFL.

They were aggressive early with the intent of winning early.

The story was similar in 2020. The Bills led at halftime in all three games to start that season, by an average of 14.3 points. That, too, was No. 1 in the NFL.

But in 2022?

That's not the case.

Games Buffalo led at halftime in Weeks 1-3:

2020: Three
2021: Three
2022: One

Average halftime lead in Weeks 1-3:

2020: 14.3 points
2021: 12.3 points
2022: 3.3 points

The reason the Bills aren't racing to leads? Instead of focusing on explosiveness, they're focusing on efficiency.

Take a look at the general strategy shift of the Bills' offense in 2022:

Josh Allen's air yards on early downs in the first half of games:

2020: 8.0
2021: 7.7
2022: 5.5

Josh Allen's rate of early-down passes beyond the first-down marker in the first half:

2020: 32% (No. 5 in NFL)
2021: 30% (No. 5 in NFL)
2022: 21% (No. 22 in NFL)

This has a two-fold result.  Despite a higher pass rate, this is forcing the Bills into more third downs because they are not skipping third downs as often:

First-down conversion rate on early downs (first half):

2020: 32% (No. 4 in NFL)

2021: 29% (No. 8 in NFL)

2022: 28% (No. 11 in NFL)

But the third downs they face are easier to convert because they are shorter:

2020: 6.1 yards to go (fourth-shortest)

22021: 6.9 yards to go (17th-shortest)

2022: 4.9 yards to go (third-shortest)

This reduces your odds of skipping third downs and thus it has forced the team into more third downs.

Looking into the first-half drive averages, we see the following:

2020: 6.4 plays/drive, 42 yards/drive, 3.1 points/drive, 5.2 drives/first half

2021: 5.8 plays/drive, 32 yards/drive, 2.3 points/drive, 5.7 drives/first half

2022: 7.4 plays/drive, 47 yards/drive, 2.9 points/drive, 4.6 drives/first half

Consider this comparison:

Last year the Bills had 21 first-half drives in the first three weeks of the season.

This year, they’ve had only 14.

So, while the Bills were less efficient in 2021, scoring only 2.3 points/drive, due to volume and quicker/bigger strikes, they were able to score more points in 2022. And what wins games is points, not efficiency.

One last note:  This does not relate to more teams playing 2-high safeties vs the Bills and forcing this early down short passing strategy.

Rate of 2-high safety coverage in the first half of games vs Josh Allen:

2020: 32% (28th-most)

2021: 39% (12th-most)

2022: 33% (21st-most)

Allen is facing far less two-high safety looks than league average through three weeks and much less than he did in 2021.

It remains to be seen if this strategy will work for a full season. But one thing is true: This strategy is reducing Buffalo's leads at halftime and forcing both the offense and defense to work extremely hard in the second half of games to lock up wins.

That's completely opposite of the 2020 and 2021 Bills.

It's also the opposite of the 2022 Eagles, who are leading at halftime by an average of 17 points through three weeks.

The massive benefits of big leads are the ability to rest players late in games and to put fewer plays from your offense on film. Defensive coordinators are like sponges. The more they see, the more of an edge they'll have to prepare for you. Which is why many rookie QBs start out fast but slow down midseason once enough film is out there on them.

In a perfect world, teams are up by more than one score at halftime, can coast late and put as few plays on tape as possible. But that's only doable if an offense is aggressive and explosive.

And the Ken Dorsey Bills, though they are efficient, have been a far cry from the aggressive and explosive first-half Brian Daboll Bills.

The new kids on the block

The Chiefs. The Bills. The Packers. The Bucs. The Chargers. The Ravens. The Rams. The Colts.

Those were just some of the best offenses of the past two years at turning drives into points.

The faster we understand which teams are vastly exceeding expectations, the more of an edge we will have.

It might shock some of you who are reading this, but some of the new-blood offenses that rank top-10 in percentage of drives that score include:

1. Jaguars
2. Browns
6. Dolphins
7. Falcons
9. Lions
10. Eagles

Sure, the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills are still top 10. But these six listed offenses all are on the come-up this year.

And they all rank top 10 in EPA (expected points added) per play as well:

2. Dolphins
3. Browns
5. Lions
6. Eagles
8. Jaguars
9. Falcons

Can these offenses keep it up for the rest of the season? We'll soon find out.

It has been particularly wild watching the Jaguars and Eagles. In each of their past two games, they were so efficient in the first half of games, they shut things down by the third quarter.

Jacksonville led 17-0 at halftime and 24-0 in the third quarter against the Colts in Week 3.

Then they led 16-7 at halftime and 31-10 in the third quarter against the Chargers in Week 4.

The Eagles led 24-7 at halftime against the Vikings in Week 3 and 24-0 at halftime against Washington in Week 4. After scoring 24 in each first half, they did nothing in the second half. They didn't try to stretch their lead because their opponent didn't force them to.

Next Sunday in Philly, we'll get both of these dominant offenses early in games going head-to-head. Will either team jump out to such a commanding lead that it can coast late? Or will this be one of the instant-classic games that we didn't expect to see before the season?

Doug Pederson is facing the franchise that fired him. You know the Jaguars are going to play hard for him. And I'm interested to see how their defense fares against the Eagles' offense. Sure, it's one thing for a defense to look good playing Carson Wentz, an injured Justin Herbert and whatever the Colts' offense has become. How will the Jags fare against the aggressive, dynamic offense of the Eagles?

This is a game I cannot wait to watch and break down later this week.

Lamar Jackson is absurd

We already know this. But it's important to remind you of it as often as possible.

The Patriots' defense recorded pressure at a 56% rate on early-down dropbacks in the first three quarters Sunday, the highest rate of any defense in the NFL.

They blitzed at a well-above-average rate.

And against the blitz, Jackson went 11-for-12 with four TDs and +0.98 EPA.

His performance against the blitz, based on EPA/att delivered with a minimum of 12 dropbacks, was second-best on the season of any QB.

The only time this year that a QB delivered more EPA per attempt against the blitz than Lamar Jackson did against the Patriots in Week 3?

Lamar Jackson, facing the Dolphins the week before.

Be wary of high-leverage success

The Broncos have the NFL's worst success rate on early downs (34.7%) but the league’s 12th-best success rate on third downs (45.3%).

They also had much better success in the fourth quarter (33.3%) than they did in the first three (27.8%).

This is a team to be concerned about. Yes, the Broncos are now 2-1 on the season, but the odds that they'll continue to have outstanding efficiency on third downs or in fourth quarters is unlikely.

Another team that warrants concern is the Carolina Panthers. Yes, I bet them as an underdog last week and was happy with their upset win. But they had terrible early-down success and had to exceed expectations on third down.

The top examples of teams that fit these same criteria of concerns earlier this season?

In Week 1, the Bears won thanks to outstanding third-down success but were terrible on early downs. They lost badly in Week 2.

Week 2, the Buccaneers were egregiously bad on early downs (20.4%), worst in the NFL, but were nearly average on third downs (36.8%) in a close victory over the Saints. As a result of a high-leverage win, they were overvalued against the Packers last week and lost outright.

While the Broncos and Panthers looked like they turned the corner by winning in Week 3, dig deeper into their Week 4 matchups before running to the window to back them.

Does anyone know what Matt Canada is doing?

This might sound shocking considering what we think of the 1-2 Steelers based on their performance, but let's trust the data here.

Earlier in this piece, I touched on how crucial first-half performance is toward winning games.

In the first half of games, the Steelers’ early down passing attack ranks No. 3 in EPA/att (+0.39) and No. 4 in success rate (61%) when passing for fewer than 15 air yards.

Yet they throw 20+ air yards at the second-highest rate of any team in the NFL on these downs.

And they rank No. 21 in EPA/attempt on such throws.

Mitchell Trubisky ranks bottom 10 in EPA/attempt when throwing past the sticks (on any down) and No. 12 in EPA/attempt when throwing short of the sticks.

Yet Mitchell Trubisky is throwing beyond the sticks at the second-highest rate in the NFL, behind only Jameis Winston.

I'm certainly not making a case that Trubisky is outstanding. But the Steelers have been in tight games all year, and it feels like their OC hasn't done them any favors with his offensive strategy as it relates to the passing game.

Pittsburgh is 1-2 and hasn't covered a single game against the spread, but this team is playing tough and could conceivably be above-.500 even without T.J. Watt.

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball