How Dolphins can be a real contender in Year 2 under Mike McDaniel

The Miami Dolphins should feel content with their 2022 season, even with the late-season downturn. Coach Mike McDaniel had growing pains. But he also dealt with difficulties at quarterback, between injuries to Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson. It felt like a miracle that the Dolphins were able to stay within three points of the Buffalo Bills in their postseason matchup with Thompson at quarterback.

On the whole, Miami got off to a promising start under McDaniel.

But it's one thing to start strong and finish 9-8 with a one-and-done postseason appearance. It's another thing to make a legitimate Super Bowl run. My sense is that McDaniel's expectations — and the expectations around his team — will be higher in 2023.

The Dolphins need to be more consistent, which would make them a contender. They also need to stay healthy at quarterback. So here's what they're looking at in 2023 as the new league year begins and free agency opens.

How healthy is the Dolphins' salary cap situation?

Not only are the Dolphins over the cap by $15.3 million in 2023, but they have just $1 million to spend in 2024. So they're likely to go over the cap in 2024 as they build their team this year. The salary cap gymnastics never stop. GM Chris Grier is going to have to manipulate contracts. But given that they're only $15.3 million over, they do actually have some latitude to make a few deals, particularly if you look at players who might be on their way out.

After seeing cornerback Byron Jones' frustration with the team over his injury recovery, it's not surprising that Miami will cut him after the June 1 deadline to free up $13.6 million in cap space. I also wonder if receiver Cedrick Wilson might be open to a trade. Miami didn't make the most of him in its offense last year despite his three-year, $18.3 million deal.

Point is, the Dolphins are tight against the cap. But maybe they'll cut some of their losses from recent free agencies.

Who are Miami's top pending free agents?

Linebacker Elandon Roberts: The Dolphins have 31 pending free agents. That's an insanely high number. Most of these players were part-timers, so they'll have to ask themselves which role players they can afford to keep. Roberts was one of top contributors among those part-timers, with 59% of the team's defensive snaps over all 17 games. In that time, he had 107 tackles, a career-high. He also had career-highs in tackles for loss (10) and QB hits (6). I suspect he's the type of player who will be happy to stick around for the right price.

Cornerback Nik Needham: Needham has been the team's starting slot cornerback when healthy. He dealt with an ankle injury, which promoted Kader Kohou into the role. But Miami could use Needham in 2023, especially given the departure of Jones. If the Dolphins keep Needham, then they only need a CB2 to solidify this position group.

EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel: He's a part-timer who appears to have the potential to be a high-impact player. It's just that, with the arrivals of Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, the Dolphins don't appear to have a way of getting Van Ginkel on the field. Maybe Miami can retain him. But I wonder if another team might sign him for a surprisingly large deal and elevate him into a more full-time role.

EDGE Melvin Ingram: Ingram's reputation as a former first-round pick and double-digit sacker has made him a player worth monitoring in the offseason. But he hasn't logged double-digit sacks since 2017, and he had just six with the Dolphins in 2022. If he's happy in Miami, maybe the team can work something out. But like with Van Ginkel, the Dolphins have options off the edge. Maybe this will be a situation where there's a mutual parting of ways.

TE Mike Gesicki: Speaking of a mutual parting of ways, Gesicki has seemed like a player on the verge of departure since training camp when reports emerged that he didn't fit schematically with what McDaniel was doing. Gesicki kept surfacing on the trade market, so it's easy to imagine the Dolphins letting him go now. He's a receiving tight end — Miami wants a better blocker at TE1.

RB Jeff Wilson: After a midseason trade from San Francisco, Wilson was clearly the best option the Dolphins put into the RB1 role, ahead of Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Wilson was a big contributor at the end of the year, with a few solid performances. But the truth is that every Dolphins running back struggled to find space behind this offensive line. Wilson told FOX5 in Miami on Monday that he expects to get a deal done soon. 

Who should the Dolphins target in free agency?

CB Emmanuel Moseley: Just how much will the Dolphins decide to spend? They are surely looking at free-agent options at cornerback, but Moseley is likely to cost $16 million per year, per Spotrac. The 26-year-old was a stud for the 49ers in 2022. He's a classic high-risk, high-reward signing.

CB Marcus Peters: Because he's 30 years old, Peters projects to make about $10 million per year, per Spotrac. Maybe that's more palatable for Miami. The Dolphins could sign Peters — or a similarly high-performing veteran cornerback — to a short-term deal. (If they want to go really cheap, they could target a veteran like CB Kyle Fuller.) And then they should probably keep drafting high at the position, even with recent draft bust Noah Igbinoghene.

Safety Jordan Poyer: The Bills Pro Bowler has discussed going to a team that doesn't have state income tax. Florida counts there. And Poyer would look absolutely outstanding next to fellow Pro Bowler Jevon Holland. Maybe with Poyer and Holland on the back end, the Dolphins wouldn't have to worry as much about who's playing corner alongside Xavien Howard and, potentially, Needham.

What trade targets might the Dolphins consider?

QB Aaron Rodgers: I mean … why not, right? Maybe this would mean the Dolphins could give Tua a year to recover from the concussions he suffered in 2022. Maybe this would mean the end of the line for Miami and Tua. Either way, the Dolphins would be built to win a championship with Rodgers. It's not hard to imagine them being a Super Bowl favorite if they were to acquire him.

CB Jalen Ramsey: Following the breakup of the Dolphins and Byron Jones, Ramsey might be an option. He has many of the same qualities as Jones — Ramsey is just better. The only problem? He might want a big extension after joining the team. It's one thing to add his big contract. It's another thing to give him a raise.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @McKennAnalysis.

Top stories from FOX Sports:

• Aaron Rodgers' most likely landing spots after Derek Carr domino falls
• Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help
• 2023 NFL free-agent top-50 rankings: Lamar Jackson atop deep group of QBs
• Jalen Carter's draft stock a topic of discussion among NFL execs
• Should Bears deal No. 1 overall pick? Ranking five potential trade hauls
• 2023 NFL Draft prospect rankings: 64 best available players
• Texas spring storylines: Can Arch Manning win Longhorns’ QB battle?
• Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes: Ranking every MLB team's chances to sign him
• Pau Gasol thinking of Kobe Bryant ahead of Lakers honor: ‘He elevated me.’
• NASCAR power rankings: Ross Chastain rises to top spot after Las Vegas
• College basketball tiers: Big 12, Big 10 headline best conference tournaments
• Early bettors backing Justin Fields to win NFL MVP award in 2023-24