How Bengals stepped up; an incredible offensive indicator: Sharp Edges

By Warren Sharp
Published

On each day of the NFL Playoffs' divisional round, a key offensive player was injured due to what is termed a "hip-drop tackle."

On Sunday, it was Cowboys running back Tony Pollard.

On Saturday, it was Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.

Make no mistake, these tackles aren't illegal. They don't always have ill will or intent.

But this technique is highly likely to cause significant injury.

Pollard suffered a fractured left fibula in a tied game and was forced out of the game. The Cowboys lost one of their most explosive players and ultimately, the game. Pollard now will require surgery and a multi-month recovery as he heads into free agency.

Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain which forced him out of the game for a period and left him at well below 100% when he eventually returned. He has said he will play in the AFC Championship Game against the Bengals, but unfortunately, he will be forced to play through the injury at less than 100%.

Here is another example of a hip-drop tackle from one month ago that forced Deebo Samuel to miss multiple weeks:

Many will say "these are football plays" or "these aren't dirty."

I understand the NFL already makes life difficult on defenders. And these plays aren't against the rules… right now.

But remember, at one point in time, horse-collar tackles were not illegal either.

And due to the high injury rate from the horse-collar tackle technique, the NFL penalized them in an effort to remove them from the game.

As Kevin Cole indicated last night, the Rugby League in Australia recently outlawed these types of tackles:

The Rugby League published a video, much like the NFL's own officiating department does when they introduce a new rule or emphasis.

The eight-minute video explains what classifies as a hip-drop tackle and shows several clips of what they are looking for when trying to eliminate these dangerous tackles from the game.

Many of those examples are similar to clips shown above.

While legal now, for the safety of their own players due to the high injury rate associated with this technique, I think the NFL should look to the example set by the NRL and follow the same course they took with horse-collar tackles.

Turnovers and early downs decide games

Different week, same story.

Teams that won the turnover battle went 4-0 in the divisional round. Turnover margin is the single biggest predictor of success in the NFL. Close on its heels is early-down efficiency.

The Eagles, Bengals and Chiefs all won the early-down success battle. Only the 49ers were able to advance despite losing the early-down success battle, but that was in large part thanks to scoring twice off Cowboys turnovers.

It's hard to generate turnovers. It's easier to be efficient on early downs.

We've weeded out 28 teams and are down to just four. Where did these teams rank in expected points added per play in the first three quarters of games since Week 4?

First, second, third and fourth.

We are left with the four best offenses on early downs this season. If the turnover margin is even in both championship games next Sunday, I'll wager the winning team is the one that was most efficient on early downs.

Bengals offensive line steps up

The team with the most questions along the offensive line helped to record the best passing performance of the weekend.

The Bengals' average EPA/dropback was +0.30, tied with the Chiefs for the best in the NFL last week.

Joe Burrow still threw the ball in 2.4 seconds per attempt, which was second-fastest (only behind Jalen Hurts).

But he was pressured on only 28% of his dropbacks, the lowest pressure rate of the weekend.

As impressively, a huge 41% of Burrow's attempts traveled 10 or more yards downfield, most of any quarterback.

Thanks to the offensive line protecting him (Burrow's average time to throw was 2.7 seconds on these attempts), Burrow made these throws count. He averaged +0.70 EPA/attempt on throws 10 or more yards downfield, highest of the week, and threw two touchdowns (potentially three but for one being overturned to Ja'Marr Chase).

This is exactly what I discussed could happen when I made a strong case for the Bengals last week. My belief was the Bengals' offensive-line injuries were being overblown and too much of a focal point, and that the pass-happy Bengals could throw quickly, early and often to see success.

But even I didn't expect to see this line play as well as it did. Burrow was only hit three times and sacked only once. I expected to see more. Yes, the Bills pass rush has fallen off in a big way, but I still didn't expect the Cincinnati offensive line to play as well as it did.

It was a huge performance which helped the Bengals pull off the road upset and advance to the AFC Championship game.

Let's see if they can replicate that in a hostile environment in Kansas City.

Pressure got to Purdy

One of the biggest questions about the 49ers game was how frequently Brock Purdy would be under pressure by the tenacious and No. 1-ranked pass rush of the Cowboys.

Turns out, it was a lot. Purdy was under pressure on 45% of his dropbacks, second highest of any quarterback this week.

On those 14 dropbacks, Purdy went 4-of-12 for -0.67 EPA/att, 14% success, 4.6 YPA, took four hits and was sacked twice.

Dallas was the NFL's best team at getting pressure without blitzing this year. They blitzed once on those 12 dropbacks. The other 11 were natural pressure.

But when Purdy was kept clean, there wasn't a better quarterback this weekend.

Purdy's +0.70 EPA/attempt and 77% success rate each ranked best of any quarterback when clean. He went 15-of-17 for 9.4 YPA, also best of any unpressured QB.

The Eagles defense has been great in this regard. But look at the ranking of offensive-line pressure rate allowed (No. 32 is the worst) the Eagles have faced in recent weeks:

  • DIV Rd: #32 Giants
  • WK 18: #32 Giants
  • WK 17: #6 NO
  • WK 16: #8 DAL
  • WK 15: #32 CHI
  • WK 14: #31 NYG
  • WK 13: #29 TEN

In five of their seven most recent games, the Eagles have played offensive lines which rank bottom-four in pressure rate allowed.

The 49ers rank 12th this season.

A primary focus for San Francisco needs to be third-down avoidance. That's because on third downs, not only do the Eagles rank second in pressure rate this year, they blitz at a below-average rate and even when they don't blitz, they generate pressure on 47% of third and fourth-down dropbacks, the best rate in the NFL.

Warren Sharp is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He is the founder of Sharp Football Analysis and has worked as a consultant for league franchises while also previously contributing to ESPN and The Ringer, among other outlets. He studied engineering before using his statistical acumen to create predictive football models. You can follow Warren on Twitter at @SharpFootball.

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