How Aaron Rodgers trade impacts Jets, Packers Super Bowl odds, MVP lines
In the least surprising NFL offseason news for oddsmakers, the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers finally consummated their deal to seal Aaron Rodgers’ future. The longtime Packers superstar will wear a new shade of green with the Jets after a blockbuster deal was announced Monday.
So what was the reaction in the Super Bowl odds market? Well, honestly, it was pretty muted. And again, that’s because this news wasn’t a surprise. Rodgers has been baked into the Jets’ championship odds cake for two months or more.
FOX Bet senior trader Justin Reilly and SuperBook executive director John Murray provide the intel on how the Rodgers deal impacts odds to win the Super Bowl for both parties involved.
Let's dive into the betting odds.
Jet Stream
Back in February, around the time the Kansas City Chiefs put a bow on their Super Bowl victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, FOX Bet already had odds posted for the 2024 Super Bowl.
The Jets were listed at +2500, and with the Rodgers rumor mill already in full motion, it didn’t take long for the money to come in. New York quickly shortened to +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total) at FOX Bet.
"The Jets were immediately popular at the initial price and have been well supported since," Reilly said, while noting FOX Bet didn’t budge off Monday’s news. "No change on the Jets’ price here. We were keeping them [in line] before the trade at +1600."
That makes New York the seventh betting choice in FOX Bet’s odds to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs are the +600 favorite, followed by the Buffalo Bills (+800) and San Francisco 49ers (+800). Then it’s the Eagles at +900, Cincinnati Bengals at +1000 and Dallas Cowboys at +1400.
It was a similar story at The SuperBook, though with shorter odds. Murray noted the Jets have been +1200 to win the Super Bowl since March.
"It was all priced in," Murray said of long-ago adjustments on the expectation that Rodgers would land in the Big Apple. "It was just a matter of time before the Jets got him."
The Jets are the sixth choice at The SuperBook, behind the Chiefs (+600), Niners (+700), Bengals/Eagles (+800) and Bills (+900).
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Cool Your Jets
Over the past couple of months, the expectation and now reality of Rodgers going to the Jets has generated a ton of betting action. Not surprisingly, that includes some strong regional bias, according to Dylan Brossman, trading operations senior manager for FOX Bet.
"Our New Jersey base loves the Jets. They would be our worst result in the Super Bowl market," Brossman said of Jets liability in the Garden State.
He then addressed FOX Bet’s Super Bowl futures odds position when considering all its operations – in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Colorado.
"Overall, the Jets would still be a loser for us. But our biggest liability remains the Eagles at this point," he said.
Brossman also rightly points out that the Jets’ path to just a playoff berth – let alone a Super Bowl victory – is full of obstacles. And Rodgers himself could be one of those hurdles.
"The Jets are now a legitimate Super Bowl contender with Rodgers under center. But if Rodgers is unable to regain his MVP form, the Jets may soon realize they still have the third-best QB in their own division," Brossman said. "Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa are both entering the prime of their careers, while Rodgers turns 40 before the end of the regular season."
The Bills’ Allen is the +700 co-favorite to win MVP, and the Dolphins’ Tagovailoa is the co-seventh choice with Rodgers at +1600.
"The Jets have a talented roster around Rodgers, but Jets fans would be wise to worry about getting out of their own division before buying Super Bowl tickets," Brossman said.
Sent Packing
For much of the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers were consistently near the top of the Super Bowl odds board. Those days are apparently over.
In fact, Reilly said that when FOX Bet first posted Super Bowl 58 odds, the Packers and Jets were both at +2500. Since then, as noted above, the Jets have moved among the NFL’s top half-dozen or so in odds to win the Super Bowl. Green Bay, meanwhile, has regressed.
Now that Rodgers is officially a Jet, the Packers' title odds have stretched all the way out to +5000 at FOX Bet. That makes Green Bay the co-19th choice, given the same chance to win the Super Bowl as the Las Vegas Raiders and Carolina Panthers.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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