How 49ers should handle the Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance situation

By Bucky Brooks
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

EDITOR'S NOTE: In "Bucky's Blueprint," Bucky Brooks, a former NFL player, scout and executive, pulls back the curtain on front offices around the league to reveal how teams assess players and build rosters and franchises.

In the NFL, one team's trash is frequently another team's treasure. 

Executives, scouts and coaches cling to this premise while scouring the waiver wire and trade market for players with the potential to fill a void or upgrade a position of need. 

While it is rare for division rivals to engage in trade talks due to the ultra-competitive nature of the league, particularly when the targeted player is a quarterback, there are instances in which a team is willing to ship a starting QB to a rival. 

Andy Reid and the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb to Washington in 2010 to give their former QB1 an opportunity to start for a competitive squad in the twilight of his career. Although McNabb was a six-time Pro Bowler with an impressive résumé and a winning pedigree, the Eagles were willing to move on from him.

Moreover, the Eagles were willing to trade the all-star quarterback to a bitter rival despite having to face him twice a year while vying for a division title. 

Now in San Francisco, the 49ers are contemplating a similar move, with rumors running rampant about the Seahawks and other teams showing interest in acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo via trade. Although Garoppolo has led the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance while winning more than 68% of his starts (31-14 regular-season record), the team is moving on from the oft-injured, ninth-year pro to hand the reins to an unproven Trey Lance. 

Given the team's plans to trade the veteran, this is the perfect time to conduct a deep dive on Garoppolo and his value on the trade market.

The book on Jimmy Garoppolo

The former Eastern Illinois standout is a talented, quick-rhythm passer with B-plus arm talent and athleticism. Although a recent spate of injuries robbed Garoppolo of some of the tools that made him the 62nd overall selection in the 2014 draft, he displays enough arm strength and mobility to shine in a play-action-heavy system that features a variety of dropbacks, bootlegs and naked passes.

As an efficient rhythm passer with pinpoint accuracy at short and intermediate range, Garoppolo plays that game like an off-speed MLB pitcher adept at painting the corners of the plate. The veteran excels at throwing the ball between the numbers on a variety of in-breaking routes (shallow crossers, digs and deep overs) over the middle of the field. Garoppolo's superb touch, timing and anticipation on those routes enable the 49ers' receivers to gobble up yardage on an assortment of "catch-and-run" concepts. 

Garoppolo also excels at throwing the quick game out of spread and empty formations. The "catch, rock and fire" throws showcase his quick release and strike-zone accuracy at close range. While an experienced quarterback should carve up defenses spread thin due to space created by spread alignments, Garoppolo's efficiency and effectiveness as a quick-rhythm passer are among his most impressive traits. 

From a critical standpoint, Garoppolo's judgment and deep-ball accuracy are major concerns. He routinely makes head-scratching decisions that result in turnovers. Whether it is a "hero" throw tossed into traffic or a misread that leads to a poor throw, Garoppolo's blunders are part of the package. Perhaps he can reduce his giveaways with more attention to detail. 

Garoppolo's lack of deep-ball accuracy is one of the reasons the 49ers might have soured on his talent. From the moment that he missed Emmanuel Sanders in Super Bowl LIV to the handful of egregious misses on big-play chances in 2021, the veteran's inability to cash in lottery tickets has been a concern. Although playcallers can work around the issue with schematics, it is difficult for an offense to maximize its potential without the big-play element. 

Why are the 49ers trading Garoppolo? 

Despite enjoying great success with Garoppolo as a starter in San Francisco, the 49ers wanted an upgrade at the position. Lance is a bigger, faster and stronger prospect at the position, and his superior athleticism and arm talent could take the offense to another level. From his ability to thrive on designed quarterback runs and read-option plays to his deep-ball prowess, the second-year pro offers much more than what Garoppolo brings as a starter. 

In addition, Lance has the size and physical traits to be a more durable player at the position. Garoppolo has an extensive injury history that makes it difficult for a team to count on his availability each week. Throughout his tenure with the 49ers, he has missed games due to a variety of injuries (torn ACL, sprained ankle and calf strain) and is currently rehabbing from offseason surgery on his throwing shoulder. 

Given Garoppolo's lack of durability and salary-cap number ($26.9 million) for the 2022 season, the 49ers need to clear the books to create space for playmakers who are due for contract extensions, especially star receiver Deebo Samuel. 

What is reasonable trade compensation for Garoppolo? 

The Panthers' recent acquisition of Baker Mayfield should set a solid market for Garoppolo. Cleveland's former No. 1 overall pick was dealt for a conditional fifth-round pick that could turn into a fourth-round selection if he plays 70% of the Panthers' offensive snaps. 

In addition, Mayfield agreed to take a significant pay cut that puts him in the backup quarterback range (around $5 million) plus incentives. 

The 49ers should expect to net a similar package based on Garoppolo's impact on the team's success during his tenure. Despite questions surrounding his game, he has played winning football, and the team's 31-14 mark with him as a starter cannot be ignored. With Garoppolo also having guided the 49ers to a Super Bowl, it is reasonable for the team to hold firm on their demands in a league that is governed by quarterback play. 

While Garoppolo's injury history, particularly the injury to his throwing shoulder, will diminish his value, it is tough to find another potential starter with his résumé on the market. If Mayfield can command a conditional Day 3 pick after a disappointing season that was marred by injury, I would expect Garoppolo to command similar value when a deal is executed down the road. 

Can the 49ers keep Garoppolo in 2022? 

If the 49ers do not find a deal they like in the coming days, they could hold on to Garoppolo until the trade deadline in November. Although it would make it hard for Lance to fully emerge as the team's franchise quarterback with No. 10 supported by a faction of the locker room based on the 49ers' success with him at the helm, it is possible for San Francisco to make it work from a salary-cap standpoint. 

The combined salaries of Lance and Garoppolo account for almost $34 million of the team's salary cap, which is still less than the going rate for Tier 1 quarterbacks on the marketplace ($40 million-plus). 

In addition, keeping an accomplished veteran in the fold would provide Kyle Shanahan with a key insurance policy in case Lance falters or suffers an injury in the early part of the season. That said, the 49ers would love to move Garoppolo before training camp, but they could also hold on to him until another team loses a starter in preseason or the first part of the regular season. 

The team's salary-cap situation gives general manager John Lynch the flexibility to hold on to a valuable trade chip until the 49ers are able to get a solid return on their investment. 

How will the 49ers' decision on Garoppolo impact Lance? 

The team's decision to put its former starting QB on the trade block elevates the second-year pro to the starting role. Lance has practiced as the QB1 since the beginning of the offseason program, and the reps with the starting unit should make him more comfortable and confident heading into Year 2. 

Despite Lance's burgeoning confidence, the 49ers need to remove Garoppolo from the equation to enable the second-year pro to seize control of the locker room. Even with the listed order on the depth chart, there are several team members who view Garoppolo as the starter. 

With that in mind, the 49ers must remove any of the distractions and obstacles that could prevent Lance from growing into his role as the designated leader of the team. Although Lance and Garoppolo have a solid relationship, the 49ers do not want to stunt the youngster's growth by keeping the veteran around. Last season, the Patriots cut Cam Newton to give Mac Jones an opportunity to flourish as a young leader. 

Considering that the 49ers are contemplating a similar move, the football world could see Lance emerge as a rock-solid player at the position. 

Would the 49ers really trade Garoppolo to a division rival? 

The Seahawks have been rumored to have interest in the veteran quarterback due to their questions at the position. If the 49ers do not believe Garoppolo's skills and ability are at a mid-level or better, they should definitely entertain an offer from a rival if it meets their demands.

Although Garoppolo would certainly know the inner workings of the 49ers from a schematic and philosophical standpoint, the knowledge is meaningless if he is not good enough to punish the team with his performance. 

The 49ers certainly evaluated Garoppolo's talents and potential before drafting Lance and putting the veteran on the trade block. If they are confident in their assessments, they should not worry about Garoppolo coming back to haunt them as a player. The Eagles successfully navigated this problem with McNabb, and the 49ers could do it if they are convinced that Garoppolo's game does not threaten their chances of claiming a division title. 

At the end of the day, the 49ers should make a decision that is best for their chances to make another Super Bowl run. If Garoppolo is not viewed as a legitimate threat to derail their title hopes, they should deal him if the compensation is right. 

Bucky Brooks is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports and regularly appears on "Speak For Yourself." He has been in or around the league since 1994, playing for or working with, among others, Marv Levy, Tom Coughlin, Mike Holmgren and Ron Wolf. Brooks also breaks down the game for NFL Network and is a cohost of the "Moving the Sticks" podcast.