Herd Hierarchy: Steelers miss cut; Bills, Packers climb

Following Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season, Colin Cowherd revealed his latest "Herd Hierarchy" on Tuesday's episode of "The Herd". 

While a few of the higher-seeded teams, like the Kansas City Chiefs, remained just that, a couple of 1-2 teams like the Niners and Ravens slid into the mix this week after standout performances.

Check out the full list below, along with Cowherd's thoughts on each squad and odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Herd Hierarchy Week 4

10. San Francisco 49ers (1-2, Last week 9)
Super Bowl odds: +650

Cowherd's thoughts: "It worries me that it's the fifth loss when leading by 10-plus points in the fourth under Kyle Shanahan. … But finally, I look at Brock Purdy and I see a franchise quarterback. No [George] Kittle. No Deebo [Samuel]. No [Christian] McCaffrey. Offensive protection at the line was okay, and he was dealing."

9. New York Jets (2-1, LW unranked)
Super Bowl odds: +1400

Cowherd's thoughts: "Here's the stat that I come back to: Aaron Rodgers, on third down this year, has a 118 passer rating. They have the best third-down offense [at] 57% in the league. I have been a huge believer in this stat forever. If you're doing things on third down … defense rests … builds confidence. It usually means you have a smart quarterback."

8. Baltimore Ravens (1-2, LW unranked)
Super Bowl odds: +1300

Cowherd's thoughts: "This is a flawed team. They lead the NFL in yards per play. Go ask the guys in Vegas who make a living gambling. That is a huge stat in the league. Forget the score in the Dallas game. That game wasn't even competitive. They rolled Dallas and Lamar Jackson … just look at his numbers this year: 318 yards a game. That's why I took him on Sunday."

7. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1, LW unranked)
Super Bowl odds: +1100

Cowherd's thoughts: "None of you like Philadelphia. I do. Jalen Hurts, without Shane Steichen, too many turnovers. They got one-plus turnover, 18 the last 22 games, and I don't love [Nick] Sirianni. But good God, they outgained the Saints 460 yards to 219, and we love the Saints … Now if A.J. Brown comes back, that's a difference maker here."

6. Detroit Lions (2-1, LW unranked)
Super Bowl odds: +1100

Cowherd's thoughts: "They finally figured out, ‘We have the best offensive line in football and two above average running backs. Maybe we should run the ball more.’ And they just punched Arizona — pretty scrappy team — in the face. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery … that's the best running back tandem in the league, the best offensive line in the league. Just run the ball."

5. Seattle Seahawks (3-0, LW 8)
Super Bowl odds: +4000

Cowherd's thoughts: "The Seahawks, with the same players, have the highest rated defense. They haven't played anybody, but I'm going to tell you something right now: When I watch Seattle, you know what I see? A little like Kansas City, I see a fast defense with elite guys at linebacker on the back end. … I'm as critical of Geno Smith as everybody. Dude is a completion machine."

4. Green Bay Packers (2-1, LW unranked)
Super Bowl odds: +1800

Cowherd's thoughts: "Is Matt Lafleur the second-best coach in the league after Andy Reid? What he is doing with Malik Willis is insane … They also lead the NFL with seven picks. We have been saying this for a decade: The only time Green Bay's defense has ever been great, Aaron Rodgers won a Super Bowl. … They're young, they're fast, [and] they're making plays. And, this has not been a playmaking defense for a long time, and what Lafleur is doing without Jordan love is notable."

3. Minnesota Vikings (3-0, LW 6)
Super Bowl odds: +2500

Cowherd's thoughts: "I keep waiting for the bubble to burst, but Minnesota is good. Here's the other thing: They lead the NFL with 16 sacks. So forget the offense. Every week it's a different player defensively, and they're not even healthy. I keep saying, Kevin O'Connell has coached the reckless out of Sam Darnold. … And by the way, I know Brian Flores hurt some feelings in Miami. Is he the best defensive coordinator in the league?"

2. Buffalo Bills (3-0, LW 4)
Super Bowl odds: +800

Cowherd's thoughts: "I know, I know, I know; Buffalo — Kansas City is going to break their heart in mid-January. But Joe Brady is different. And here's the other thing … they're not as Josh Allen-centric. They're not. They've got a running game. I mean, … even Josh Allen said it. Nobody's keeping track of stats. I like them. Are they going to beat Kansas City in mid-January? Probably not, but I do think this is the best version I have seen of them."

1. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0, LW 1)
Super Bowl odds: +450

Cowherd's thoughts: "The thing that really is scary about Kansas City … so they've become New England now. They have a star quarterback and the best coach, but they're winning with defense. They're so confident situationally. I don't think people are giving this defense credit, because outside of Chris Jones, they don't have a lot of big stars. Their defense is the fastest in the league, and Rashee Rice has become a No. 1 wide receiver."

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