Giants Over/Under: Predicting 2016 Stats

With the New York Football Giants 2016 regular season fast approaching, GMen HQ predicts statistical over/unders for Eli Manning, Odell Beckham, Jr. and Jason Pierre-Paul.

The final dress rehearsal is in the rear-view. According to a post on Lohud.com after the GMen beat the New England Patriots 17-9; players are excited about this team in 2016. Finally, we can stop over analyzing the backup quarterback and playing up the importance of the fifth wide receiver. The Giants will travel to Texas on Sunday, September 11, to take on the division rival Dallas Cowboys.

Before that takes place, let’s assess the Giants’ top three players: Odell Beckham, Eli Manning and Jason Pierre-Paul. Manning and Beckham had career-years in 2015, but what’s the ceiling this season? Can Jason Pierre-Paul bounce back for Big Blue in 2016 after ditching the club on his right hand?

Let’s go over/under.

Eli Manning: 35 Touchdowns in 2016

Sep 1, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (L) shakes hands with wide receiver Odell Beckham (R) during warm ups prior to their game against the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports

Manning has surpassed 30 touchdown passes just three times in his 12 seasons. His 35 TDs last season were a career best. He has increased on his TD total in each of the past three years, the last two under Ben McAdoo.

In Manning’s 30 TD seasons, he’s had at least one big-time playmaker anchoring the receiving corps. In 2010, it was a prime Hakeem Nicks. In 2014 and 2015, it was Beckham. He’s still there, and the Giants have added talent at the position. Rookie Sterling Shepard provides a threat alongside Beckham, something the Giants haven’t had in two years. Victor Cruz figures to be productive as well, even if he doesn’t turn out to be the player he once was.

With a questionable rushing attack and an inconsistent offensive line, the Giants will once again air it out in 2016. Expect Manning to eclipse 570 passing attempts. And he’ll be throwing to, arguably, the deepest group of receivers he has had. Manning should improve on his TD total again this year.

Prediction: Over

Jason Pierre Paul: 10 sacks in 2016

Aug 27, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (90) tackles New York Jets running back Lache Seastrunk (30) in the 2nd half at MetLife Stadium. New York Giants defeat the New York Jets 21-20. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports

Jason Pierre-Paul had a combined 29 sacks in his best two seasons (2011, 2014). Over the other four seasons of his six-year career, he has 14 total. Returning from a gruesome fireworks accident which mangled his right hand last year, Pierre-Paul recorded only one sack in eight games.

This year, the Giants’ defensive line appears to be its strongest unit. The sturdy Johnathan Hankins will once again anchor the middle, with fearsome free agent signee Damon “Snacks” Harrison now by his side. Opposite Pierre-Paul, the Giants brought in Olivier Vernon, giving them a two-headed monster on the ends not seen since the days of Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora.

Opposing offensive lines won’t be able to block all of them, but they will want to focus on one. That will likely be Pierre-Paul. He’s the most disruptive player on the unit and his freakish athleticism is a rarity, even in a league full of freakish athletes.

Pierre-Paul’s value is bigger than his sack total. When he dominates his match-up, he frees up the rest of the line as well as the linebacker behind him. Pierre-Paul is also good against the run. He will make a big impact in 2016, but don’t expect offenses to let him go one-on-one too often.

Prediction: Under

Odell Beckham: 100 receptions in 2016

Dec 20, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (13) signals first down after a catch and run against the Carolina Panthers during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. The Panthers defeated the Giants 38-35. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

What will Odell Beckham, Jr. do for an encore? He caught 187 passes for 2,755 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first two seasons. If history is any indication, he will only get better.

Third-year receivers have, historically, taken their game to the next level. In Jerry Rice’s third year, he caught 22 TDs. Randy Moss caught 15 TDs and had 1,437 receiving yards. It’s scary to think what that next level might be for OBJ.

Beckham was targeted an average of 146 times in his first two seasons, and that was without a true threat opposite him. According to TeamRankings.com, he was targeted 10.5 times per game last season, making him the sixth-most targeted receiver in the league. Assuming he plays all 16 games at the same rate, Beckham would be targeted 168 times in 2016. His 64% catch rate would equal about 108 receptions.

One school of thought says Shepard and Cruz will eat into OBJ’s targets. Conversely, with the duo putting pressure on a defense, it should open up more throwing lanes. Not only will defenses have to stay honest underneath, but they must also respect Shepard’s speed on the outside. Beckham should see even more opportunities this season.

Prediction: Over

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