Geoff Schwartz: Should the Chiefs, Steelers, Bears begin to panic?
By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
Nobody panic … unless you're these NFL teams.
While we're only through three weeks of the 18-week regular season, it’s time to figure out which teams are already on edge.
Here's my panic meter after Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season. And I'll start with the back-to-back Super Bowl AFC representatives.
Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 1-2
Panic Meter: 1 out of 5
The standard is so high for the Chiefs that even a little blip on the radar can feel more monumental than it actually is.
After three games of a 17-game schedule, the Chiefs are 1-2. They beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 1, lost to the Baltimore Ravens – after a fumble on their final drive while in game-winning field-goal range – in Week 2, and just lost to the Los Angeles Chargers by six points Sunday.
The Chiefs turned it over four times, and their offense looked lost at times. The defense played better than the previous two weeks but still had issues hitting the opposing quarterback.
Kansas City's margin for error is much smaller this season than in the past, and when the Chiefs make mistakes, they have had to pay for them. The K.C. offensive line is five new parts, and while I believe its interior is good and will continue to get better, both of the Chiefs' tackles are a downgrade from Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz. This line is where I expected but still has room to grow.
Outside of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, who are both elite-level pass catchers, the Chiefs do not have a reliable second wide receiver option. Their defense is not as talented as in previous years. Their young pass rushers haven’t developed, and Frank Clark is the worst contract in the sport. Chris Jones can still do his thing but no one else can hit the quarterback.
So, the panic meter shouldn’t be astronomically high, as I don’t expect the Chiefs to have five turnovers in 11 possessions again this season. However, they need to understand that they have to play with a sense of urgency at all times.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 1-2
Panic Meter: 5 out of 5
There was a report Sunday morning from an NFL insider that said the Steelers are concerned their quarterback, Ben Roethlisberger, is washed up. I’m beginning to wonder if the Steelers front office had access to the game film from last season because clearly, he’s old and washed.
This is exactly why I faded the Steelers this season, taking the under for their season win total and wagering heavily on them missing the postseason. The Steelers made their offensive issues worse by not using high draft picks on offensive linemen to sturdy up the position. Instead, they opted for Najee Harris, who had 14 catches for 102 yards and 14 carries for 40 yards in Week 3 – a great effort in a loss.
The Steelers did address the offensive line in the mid-rounds, and while I’m optimistic about the future of those players, they probably could have used time to grow into the role. Pittsburgh has good skill players but the scheme isn’t great, Roethlisberger is always running for his life, and every single yard the Steelers gain on offense looks incredibly painful.
When the Steelers' defensive line and pass rush returns, their defense can still be elite, but that’s the only chance they have to win games right now. There’s no answer to fix this offense.
New York Giants
Record: 0-3
Panic Meter: 4 out of 5
Everyone saw this coming, except those in Big Blue.
New York is an organization stuck in the past. The "Giant Way" does not work anymore. Since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants have won 18 games and lost 49, the worst winning percentage in the NFL over that time span.
At some point, the Giants – and that includes ownership – will realize it’s time to adapt and update their process for evaluating talent, roster building and coaching philosophies. Until that time, the Giants will not win.
The panic meter is a four out of five in New York because quarterback Daniel Jones looks improved. He has played his best three-game stretch in a Giants uniform, and if he continues to avoid turning the ball over, the Giants will be in every game.
New York could make a change at offensive coordinator, moving Jason Garrett out of that role and installing Freddie Kitchens. Remember, Kitchens was excellent as just a play-caller, even though he struggled as a head coach.
The Giants play in a poor division and will have an opportunity to beat all their division opponents. However, nothing shows that Joe Judge’s team will stop making mistakes and playing undisciplined football.
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Nagy
Record: 1-2
Panic Meter: 2 out of 5
Guys: Matt Nagy is not a good offensive coach, and I’m surprised more of us haven’t said this out loud.
He’s heading into his fourth season as the Bears' head coach, after spending years learning under Andy Reid in Kansas City. His offenses have ranked 20th, 25th and 25th in efficiency over the previous three years, respectively. And, yes, he had Mitch Trubisky, who appears to have been a bust. However, the criticism of Nagy never adjusting his offense for Trubisky’s skill set is more relevant after the Bears' humiliating performance against the Browns on Sunday.
Justin Fields, their rookie quarterback, was making his first start in Cleveland. He finished 6-for-20 passing for 68 yards and that line looks better than it appeared watching the game live. The entire offense finished with six first downs and 47 total yards after allowing seven sacks.
And Matt Nagy deserves the blame.
The Bears' offense looked as though it didn’t know Fields could move out of the pocket to pass. There were 30 total pass plays called and only four times did Nagy have Fields leave the pocket.
No trick plays. No creativity. Just basic run plays and drop back passes against a fierce pass rush. No heavy play-action pass. No bootlegs. Just freaking nothing.
People will now point to this as evidence the Bears had no business playing Fields. Maybe you’re right but I’d love to see Fields with anyone else designing the offense. At this rate, everyone will get their wish by season’s end.
The panic meter depends on what your expectations for the Bears were this season. I thought they’d struggle, but not this bad. So the meter is only two out of five because in the end, Bears fans will get their wish: someone else to coach Fields.
Seattle Seahawks
Record: 1-2
Panic Meter: 1 out of 5
Seattle has a problem: They are a bad second-half team.
They were up 30-16 against Tennessee early in the fourth quarter in Week 2 and lost 33-30. Seattle was up 17-7 in Minnesota, only to lose 30-17.
The Seahawks' once-proud defense is having issues doing just about everything, and the offense has only scored 13 second-half points this season, none of which came in a third quarter. This tells me the Seahawks have a great week of preparation, but once adjustments need to be made, they can’t do it. Plus, they are able to scheme up their players to be in the right spot earlier in games, but when it’s later in the contest, and being the better athlete and/or player is required, they aren’t able to win those matchups.
However, the panic meter is still low in Seattle. Just a one out of five because we’ve seen the Seahawks have answers and I’ll trust them here.
Indianapolis Colts
Record: 0-3
Panic Meter: 3 out of 5
Expectations are important context here for the panic meter.
I did not buy the Carson Wentz redemption story and despite playing with two bums ankles, it’s clear he’s not a good quarterback. I also happened to notice that the Colts' offensive line, which was a strength before Wentz showed up, is playing poorly. And the Philadelphia Eagles' offensive line, which when healthy has been good, played worse with Wentz.
Wentz is just not what many expected him to be and the Colts' defense can’t carry them to wins. I’m at a three on the panic meter because their division is weak and the staff has proved to be competent.
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.