General Manager Trent Baalke Drafting Injured Players Has Hurt the 49ers

San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke has a history of selecting injured players in the NFL Draft. But Baalke’s “All-ACL” team approach has done more to hinder the Niners roster rather than help it.

A Trent Baalke draft class is guaranteed to do two things.

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First, the San Francisco 49ers general manager will select a defensive back. Second, Baalke will pick up an injured player — typically coming off an ACL injury.

The approach was a good idea back in 2013 when Baalke first targeted someone coming off a serious collegiate injury. The Niners were loaded with talent at that time. Redshirting players for their rookie season made sense.

But, as we’ve seen between 2014 through 2016, this approach has backfired and left San Francisco’s roster in a downtrodden state.

It’s failed. And Baalke needs to steer clear of such a methodology if he hopes to retain his GM spot. That is, if he’s even here a year from now.

So what exactly went wrong here?

Niner Noise breaks down why Baalke’s injury risks wound up hurting the 49ers more than helping them.

Sep 20, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive tackle Tank Carradine (95) takes the field to play he Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. The Steelers won 43-18. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Creating the All-ACL Team

Eric Branch of SFGate.com put together a great analysis on Baalke’s injury picks leading up to the 2016 NFL Draft.

We’ll refer back to that periodically, but the 49ers GM kicked off this whole All-ACL group in Round 2 of the 2013 NFL Draft by selecting former Florida State pass-rusher Tank Carradine.

Carradine sat out his rookie year and then struggled to get onto the field as a traditional 3-4 defensive end. Despite some flashes here and there, it took a switching of positions this season to see Carradine was better suited to be more of an edge-rusher.

This might be the only one of Baalke’s injury picks to really pan out. And the Niners already lost three years’ worth of production — one due to injury and the other two for improper positioning.

Baalke then drafted former South Carolina running back Marcus Lattimore in Round 4 that year.

Lattimore was recovering from a gruesome collegiate knee injury and ended up retiring before he ever saw the field.

A year later, Baalke tabbed offensive lineman Brandon Thomas in Round 3 and subsequently redshirted him. Cornerback Keith Reaser (Round 5) went the same route as did fullback Trey Millard (Round 7).

Branch summed this up:

Consider: From 2013-14, Baalke used five of his 23 picks on players coming off significant knee injuries, spending second-, third-, fourth-, fifth- and seventh-round selections on those rehabbing prospects. Last year, two of those players (RB Marcus Lattimore and FB Trey Millard) weren’t in the NFL and the remaining three (DL Tank Carradine, G Brandon Thomas and CB Keith Reaser) played an average of 103 snaps for the 49ers.

In 2015, wide receiver DeAndre Smelter (Round 4) was Baalke’s injury pick. This year, cornerback Will Redmond (Round 3) ended up being that guy.

The Rationale and Why It Didn’t Work

Baalke’s reasoning for drafting injured players and stashing them for a year made sense at the time.

Keep in mind the 49ers were a dominant franchise in 2013 and entering 2014. Few roster spots were up for grabs, and the Niners could afford keeping guys on injury lists with the hope each would impact the team a year or two later.

And Baalke would be selecting injured players with lower picks than if each prospect was fully healthy.

The problem is San Francisco had to go through its 2015 offseason. Yeah, the disastrous one.

Last season was supposed to be the year in which those draftees stepped into the fray and contributed.

Branch wrote:

This dilemma gave rise to Baalke’s draft-and-stash strategy in which he selected players rehabbing from serious knee injuries. Those players would spend a “redshirt” rookie season on injury lists, where they didn’t count against the 53-man roster, and would be fully recovered and ready to contribute a year later.

It was a strategy few teams could afford to adopt because they needed their draft picks to contribute immediately. The 49ers, however, could grab injured prospects at least a round later than they would have been selected if healthy and start reaping the rewards a year later.

It made sense.

And it hasn’t worked.

Here’s another problem. Even if a player wind up contributing — like, let’s say, Carradine — at some point, the Niners already lost out on a year or two of development and production.

A full season away from on-field activities isn’t just about a lack of impact. One also has to consider the inability to develop adequately enough to contribute at an NFL level. Carradine is a perfect example. What if the 49ers realized he wouldn’t cut it as a 3-4 DE a year ago and made the switch to EDGE to start 2015?

What Now?

Redmond is the latest cast member not to make an impact right away.

San Francisco placed him on injured reserve, but he could still return this season since he initially made the 53-man roster.

December 4, 2011; San Francisco, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke walks through the endzone during warm ups before the game against the St. Louis Rams at Candlestick Park. The 49ers defeated the Rams 26-0. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

And to think Baalke thought Redmond would be ready to go by training camp.

Smelter also landed on an injury list. Thomas was traded too — not exactly a good use of a third-round pick.

Recent news regarding #49ers ACL picks: G Brandon Thomas (traded), WR DeAndre Smelter (waived/injured), CB Will Redmond (IR).

— Eric Branch (@Eric_Branch) September 5, 2016

KNBR 680’s John Lund said it best:

Since 2013, it’s a second rounder, two thirds, two fourths, a fifth and a seventh round pick. Of those seven picks, only three are currently on the roster, none are listed as a current starter, there is one career start among them, five have never or will never play in a regular season game for the team. These are the picks that are the lifeblood of an NFL team. First round picks get the headlines, second, third and fourth round picks should be starters who give you value to keep your cap in check. All these players should be entering their prime.

Keep this in mind too — the Niners promoted Tom Gamble to assistant GM this offseason. He’s waiting in the folds if Baalke’s efforts don’t pan out.