FOX Bet Super 6: NFL Week 17 picks to win $100,000
By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
There's something magical about Week 17 no longer being the final week of the regular season. It feels like we should be getting ready for our last opportunity to bet on every team, but instead, there's a whole other week left.
And this week, FOX Bet is giving away $100,000 of Terry Bradshaw's money absolutely for free. All you have to do is download the FOX Bet Super 6 app, enter the NFL Sunday Challenge and make your picks on six games from Sunday's Week 17 slate. If you're right, you'll have a shot at the grand prize!
To help you get to the pay window, here are my thoughts on this week's Super 6 games, with all NFL odds via FOX Bet.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
The Colts were down three starters versus the Cardinals and still prevailed, but two more got injured during the game. And star LB Darius Leonard will miss this one due to COVID. Still, Frank Reich has a massive coaching edge, and as long as Carson Wentz doesn’t commit a bevy of turnovers — something he’s prone to do (four fumbles lost is tied for 3rd among QBs) — the Colts are the side.
Yes, the Raiders held Broncos running backs to eight yards on 14 carries last week, as the Las Vegas defense looked impenetrable, permitting just eight first downs and 158 yards. but that was with Drew Lock under center. The Raiders haven’t had tight end Darren Waller in the last four games, and have only scored 15, 9, 16 and 17 points.
Given how few chances the Raiders' offense could have if Jonathan Taylor and the ground game chews clock, this figures to be a very low-scoring game. When Taylor tops 100 yards, the Colts are 9-0. They’re 0-6 when he doesn’t. Pick: Colts to win by 3-4 points
Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
The Bills have annihilated bad teams this season, and make no mistake, the 7-8 Falcons are not good. If you remove the Jacksonville outlier, Buffalo has outscored the dregs of the league 220-63 in six games, for an average margin of 36-10. Of course, the Bills are coming off a rousing win over the Patriots in which Josh Allen had his best game of the season (314 yards passing and 3 TDs, 64 yards rushing).
Is it possible they show up overconfident or perhaps lacking focus? Sure. The last time the Bills beat a playoff team (the Chiefs), they went to Tennessee and lost 34-31. But I don’t see similar problems here. The Falcons' defense somehow let the Detroit Lions with Tim Boyle at QB get into the red zone four times. If the Lions didn’t go 0-4 in the red zone, they would have stolen a win on the road and eliminated the Falcons from playoff contention.
The Falcons have stepped up in class and routinely been smacked down — and hard. By Tampa (lost two games by a combined 36). By Dallas (43-3). By New England (25-0). By San Francisco (31-13). Pick: Bills to win by 15-21 points
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
The spread is gargantuan because, well, how are the Jets going to move the ball? They rushed for 273 yards in a win over Jacksonville, and 52 of them came courtesy of Zach Wilson on the best QB run of the NFL season. The Bucs' run defense has been in the top three all season, and Carolina repeatedly ran into a brick wall Sunday, with Chuba Hubbard rushing six times for nine yards. Sure, Cam Newton had one 33-yard scamper on a busted play, but otherwise Carolina rushed 14 times for 33 yards.
The Jets will get crushed in the trenches, and now you’re asking the rookie QB to deal with a Bucs defense that has blitzed more than any team this season (247). And he’s down his top two receivers. Tampa is No. 3 in pressure rate, and tied for the NFL lead in sacks (44). Tampa, even down multiple offensive weapons, still scored 32 against Carolina. Expect Tom Brady to be resting in the fourth quarter, as this will be a blowout. Pick: Buccaneers to win by 22-plus points
Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
The Saints are in a bad place, trying to make the playoffs with massive COVID/injury problems. New Orleans set an NFL record on Monday against Miami when three players got the start for the first time this season, bringing their total to 57 different starters. But Taysom Hill returns at QB, and the Saints' offense should register a pulse.
The Panthers are in a worse place than the Saints, if that’s possible, with their coach talking about Jay-Z to try and explain why Carolina’s offense needs time. They need a QB, and the Cam Newton x Sam Darnold collab isn’t going to get it done. After getting bullied for the final three quarters by the Bucs, now they get to ring in the new year in New Orleans versus a Saints team that can’t be happy with a lifeless performance against Miami. Darnold won’t be seeing ghosts, but Marcus Davenport and Cam Jordan can be just as scary. Pick: Saints to win by 7-9 points
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Football Team (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
One could argue the Eagles are the most predictable team in the NFC. They want to run the ball. They will run the ball. The problem with Philadelphia is they have stumbled out of the gates in four straight games, and you become susceptible to an upset if you let inferior opponents hang around. It happened last month versus the Giants when Jalen Hurts threw three interceptions. The week after that, the Jets scored 18 points in the first half. Then Washington led them 10-0, and it was tied at the half. Last week, it was a 3-3 halftime score against the Giants. This is an ominous trend that could get Hurts in big trouble.
Is Washington capable of that? After getting humbled 56-14 by Dallas, and watching teammates fight on the sideline, perhaps the team uses the embarrassment as a rallying cry and actually shows up here. Problem is, injuries have crushed Washington in the trenches, and as a result, they can’t move the football. Pick: Eagles to win by 5-6 points
Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)
It's tough to not love the Cowboys here in a revenge spot against an opponent that is reeling. If Arizona goes into this game without its best three offensive weapons — RB James Connor, WRs Rondale Moore and DeAndre Hopkins — how will it keep up with the high-octane Dallas offense? Without them last week against Indy, the Cardinals only punted once but still only put up 16 points. Arizona lost its third straight game, but was able to back into the playoffs when the Vikings lost to the Rams. Arizona is not in the mix for the No. 1 seed, and sure, you’d like to host a home game, but you’ve got to pass the Rams to do that. So isn’t the move to get healthy for the playoffs and not force anyone back?
Dallas was -2.5 on the lookahead line, and then when the market reopened after the Cowboys crushed Washington, the line was -5.5. That’s a significant move but clearly warranted, as the Cowboys are headed up and Arizona is trending the other way. Pick: Cowboys to win by 7-9 points
J-MAC'S SUPER 6 PICKS FOR WEEK 17
Colts to win by 3-4 points
Bills to win by 15-21 points
Buccaneers to win by 22-plus points
Saints to win by 7-9 points
Eagles to win by 5-6 points
Cowboys to win by 7-9 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on every show on the network. In 2017, McIntyre began producing gambling content on the NFL, college football and NBA for FOX Sports. He had a gambling podcast for FOX, "Coming Up Winners," in 2018 and 2019. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead, which he sold in 2010.
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