Football odds: Bet on Iowa to roll Penn State, more

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

It's hard to believe it's already been a whole month of wire-to-wire weekend football. Time does fly when you're having fun.

There are a couple of solid matchups on the docket, so let's break down which wagers you should target before the lines move.

Here are my early best bets for the week (10-9-1 YTD), with lines via FOX Bet.

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Penn State at Iowa (-2.5 at FOX Bet)

Defense, defense, defense.

Kirk Ferentz has an absolute monster defensive front, which has made life hell on opposing quarterbacks. Just ask Maryland's Taulia Tagovailoa, who tossed five interceptions last week due to the Hawkeye pressure.

My numbers have Iowa as a five-point favorite, so I'm not exactly sure why the line is shorter than a field goal. Kinnick Stadium is a tough place to play, and Iowa isn't receiving the respect they deserve.

I'll happily lay the short chalk (-2.5) before a potential move to -3.

PICK: Iowa (-2.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 2.5 points

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Michigan State at Rutgers (+5 at FOX Bet)

This line tells you everything you need to know.

Bookmakers still clearly respect Rutgers (4-1 ATS!) despite back-to-back losses at Michigan and home against Ohio State. The Scarlet Knights hung around 'til the very end in the former and got pounded in the latter.

Rutgers now welcomes Michigan State out east in a game that could go either way. I would argue this is the Spartans' toughest test on the schedule so far, which isn't hyperbolic at all when you figure MSU has only traveled to Northwestern and Miami (FL).

Expect senior quarterback Noah Vedral to make enough plays to keep Rutgers inside the number and give the Scarlet Knights a chance to win outright.

PICK: Rutgers (+5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5 points; or win outright

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Maryland at Ohio State (-20.5 at FOX Bet)

This is the best number in the world on Ohio State and I’m in.

The betting market is mostly sitting Buckeyes -21 or -21.5 and I’m happy to get a great number so we cover if OSU wins by an even three touchdowns. If you’ve watched Maryland play defense this season, they could lose by five.

Ohio State’s early-season loss to Oregon might not be the worst thing in the world because now head coach Ryan Day has his team’s full attention. The Buckeyes will be in "middle finger mode" the rest of the season because they’ve got to impress the committee to get back into its good graces for the College Football Playoff.

Don’t rule out a 49-20 Buckeyes win for one second.

PICK: Ohio State (-20.5 at FOX Bet) to win by 21 points or more

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San Francisco 49ers (+5.5 at FOX Bet) at Arizona Cardinals

If one more person tells me the Cardinals are the best team in the NFL, I'll just throw more on this wager.

Give Arizona credit for starting 4-0, but come on. This season, they trailed by double-digits against both Minnesota and Jacksonville, got bailed out by a missed field goal at the horn, and the Jaguars being the Jaguars.

Let's see what Kyle Shanahan and Trey Lance have up their sleeves, with Lance having a whole week of preparation with the starters.

Before the season, this line was Cardinals -2.5, so we're getting an extra three points because of Arizona's great start and San Francisco's mediocre one. The Cardinals' regression to the mean is long overdue.

PICK: San Francisco (+5.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points; or win outright

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Six-point teaser: Bengals +9 to Bills +8.5 (-122 at FOX Bet)

If you are not familiar with a two-team teaser, it allows you to move a side or total six points. But, you must win both legs of the teaser to cash in.

Let's tease Buffalo up through the 3 and 7 and Cincinnati from +3 to +9.

Please give me the Bills' offense getting over a touchdown any day of the week and twice on Sunday night. Josh Allen's ability to direct an explosive attack that can go blow-for-blow with Kansas City makes this very bet very enticing. Plus, it's no secret that the Chiefs' defense is nothing special.

And why is Green Bay only a three-point favorite in Cincinnati? Somebody knows something. I still want more wiggle room against Aaron Rodgers to be safe.

Joe Burrow and his talented young receivers should give the Green Bay secondary fits and provide the Bengals with every opportunity to hang around.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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