Football odds: Bet on Iowa to cover against Michigan (and more)
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
You should always be content with a 3-2 betting weekend, but I still can't believe Nebraska (+1.5) blew a 21-6 fourth-quarter lead at home and lost to Iowa. The handicap was dead on, but the result was wrong. A solid reminder that it's never easy out here in these streets.
We trek ahead to a busy weekend with Championship Weekend in college football and Week 13 of the NFL season.
Here are some early best bets (28-28-1) with lines via FOX Bet:
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 13 Iowa (8 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
That's right. I am flipping on Michigan after betting 'em last week.
Nobody wanted to touch the Wolverines as an eight-point home underdog against Ohio State, but now the betting public is way too ready to lay 11 points on a neutral site with the same team. Got it.
Iowa's offense is tough to watch, but the Hawkeyes are stylistically built to compete with physical football teams that want to run the football. If Iowa were facing Ohio State, I would stay far, far away. But this team can hang around against Jim Harbaugh's very conservative Wolverines.
Grabbing two scores with an outstanding defense in a game totaled at 43.5 is just too good for me to pass up.
PICK: Iowa (+10.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points (or win outright)
No. 10 Oregon vs. No. 17 Utah (8 p.m. ET Friday, ABC)
This number doesn't even make sense.
Oregon was a three-point underdog in Salt Lake City two weeks ago and got absolutely pounded 38-7. So the same two teams meet on a neutral field, and the line is Utah -2.5? Hmmm. That just doesn't feel right, and I refuse to overreact to one game.
Rice-Eccles Stadium has proven to be one of the most challenging places in the country to play, and once Utah went up 14-0, the place was rocking and Oregon never found its footing.
The Ducks certainly didn't help themselves with costly penalties and a brutal special teams collapse at the end of the first half, but it's a clean slate this Friday in Las Vegas.
Expect Oregon to make the necessary schematic adjustments and play with a purpose after Utah spoiled its chance at the College Football Playoff.
I'll bet against the Utes getting the best of Mario Cristobal's bunch a second time.
PICK: Oregon (+2.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 3 Alabama (4 p.m. ET Saturday, CBS)
Defense, defense, defense.
I respect the hell out of Georgia's defense (allowing only 6.9 PPG). And, even though the Bulldogs haven't faced many great offenses this year, Alabama has looked far from explosive against LSU and Auburn over the last month. And those defenses are nowhere near as good as Georgia's.
It's also very likely that the Crimson Tide will be without star running back Brian Robinson, who injured his ankle in Alabama's 24-22 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
Combine Robinson's injury with Bill O'Brien's questionable play-calling, a very average offensive line and a running game that won't control the line of scrimmage, and that's a recipe for disaster against this Georgia front seven.
Nick Saban is the best coach ever to do it, but he doesn't have the best team this time around.
There's a reason the number is this high. Lay the points.
PICK: Georgia (-6 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 6 points
Six-point teaser:
If you are not familiar with a two-team teaser, it allows you to move a side or total six points. But, you must win both legs of the teaser to cash in.
To maximize our betting math, let's tease the Cardinals down from -8 through the key numbers of 7 and 3 and the Chargers up from +3.5 to +9.5.
The Birds should beat the snot out of the Bears, who needed a last-second field goal to defeat the hopeless and winless Lions on Thanksgiving. But I hate laying 8 in the NFL because it's just north of the 7.
Chicago's offense stinks, and the defense is hobbled with Khalil Mack out for the season and Roquan Smith and Akiem Hicks battling injuries. Let's tease this line down to be safe.
I lean to the Chargers at +3.5 but love them getting over a touchdown against Cincinnati. This lookahead line was Bengals -1.5, but after Cincy blew out Pittsburgh and L.A. got stomped in Denver, the market reopened -3.
Give me all those extra points for Justin Herbert and the Bolts offense to play with.
PICK: Cardinals teased to -2; Chargers teased to +9.5 (-115 at FOX Bet)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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