Five reasons why Drew Brees extension would be a mistake for Saints

The New Orleans Saints are reportedly close to an extension with Drew Brees, but that might not be the best move

Every good thing must come to an end. Drew Brees has been nothing short of a blessing for the New Orleans Saints but will be a free agent after the 2016 NFL season. The Saints are trying to lock him up long-term with a four-year deal that could be worth roughly $100 million.

It’s understandable that the Saints want to keep the quarterback who took them to their first Super Bowl victory. But that was back in 2009 and Brees is 37 years old now and will be turning 38 in January. It’s time for the Saints to stop reverting to the past and start looking to the future.

Here are five reasons why the Saints shouldn’t keep Drew Brees past 2016.

5. It’s Time To Rebuild

The Saints have been impressive with Brees as their quarterback. They have been contenders since 2006, though they have just three playoff appearances since their Super Bowl win. New Orelans has a 7-9 record in three of their past four seasons with just one playoff appearance. Brees has spoiled Saints fans with his elite production but the Saints should move on from him so that they can prepare for their future without him.

It might be painful for the first few years without Brees; whomever replaces Brees will have huge shoes to fill. But there’s no draft lottery in the NFL. It’s better to be really bad and get a high pick than to hover around a .500 record and get a worse pick.

Of course, drafting a franchise quarterback is much harder than it sounds. Just ask the Cleveland Browns, who have been looking for one for roughly 20 years now. But with a young, talented team around their new quarterback, the transition to life without Brees could be smooth.

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4. Old Age

It’s hard to imagine, but Drew Brees is already 37 years old. His rookie season seems like it wasn’t that long ago — but it was 15 years ago. Brees has won the battle against time despite having a major shoulder surgery in January of 2006. However, time catches up to everyone eventually. It will catch up to Brees, and if history is an indicator, it will be soon.

Even though it has been 10 years since Brees’ shoulder surgery, one has to wonder how many throws he has left in him. He has thrown 6,276 passes in the regular season since his surgery and 8,085 over his career. Brees’ arm power has declined in recent years, but Brees has countered it with his accuracy and underrated mobility. How long will that remain the case?

When time catches up to a quarterback, the end result is not pretty. Just look at how quickly Peyton Manning went from being an elite quarterback to being Trent Dilfer. The Saints cannot afford to be paying Brees an elite quarterback’s salary when his inevitable decline begins.

It would be better for the Saints to find Brees’ replacement than to potentially be stuck with Brees once he declines. The 2017 free agency class presents some interesting stopgap options for the Saints until they find their franchise quarterback.

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3. The Saints Aren’t Super Bowl Contenders

An elite quarterback can hide a team’s flaws. Sometimes they can delude a team into thinking that they have a Super Bowl caliber team when they don’t. That’s precisely what Brees has done to the Saints.

The Saints have not been contenders in three of their past four seasons. They only have a .500 record in one of those four seasons. In the remaining three seasons, they have a 7-9 record. Brees has kept the Saints afloat, but even with Brees, the Saints simply aren’t a Super Bowl team.

Their defense is one of the worst in the NFL. In order to win the Super Bowl, you need a strong defense — the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks, and New England Patriots are proof of this. Sure, having an elite quarterback helps, but they can’t mask the flaws of their defense. They can overcome them by scoring more than the other team, but they can’t do a thing about production on that side of the ball.

Even their offense has taken a step backwards from their glory days. They still get a lot of yards, but they struggle to score at times.

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2. Salary Cap

The Saints need to look no further than the NFC West to see why having a young, cheap quarterback could be better than having an expensive one. Obviously, elite quarterbacks are an exception to this rule. But the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers built strong teams around their respective cheap young quarterbacks several years ago. Russell Wilson is thankful for having a great team around him, allowing him to steadily grow into the leader that he is today.

New Orleans could save themselves $25 million a year by not re-signing Brees. That $25 million a year must be used properly. But if spent wisely, the Saints could infuse their defense with a ton of talent. That could easily turn the Saints into contenders again if they manage to find a replacement for Drew Brees.

Of course, asking the Saints to copy what the Seahawks did with Wilson is asking a bit much. The Seahawks paid him pennies because they drafted him in the third round. They also had a great team around him from the moment he stepped on the field.

It’s silly to try and guess future options for the Saints, but perhaps Texas Longhorns quarterback Shane Buechele could be that guy. He has an excellent arm and he showed a lot of poise against Notre Dame in his first college start. There are some talented quarterbacks in college football, so the Saints will have options to replace Brees, whether that’s next year or several years in the future.

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1. Drew Brees’ Decline Has Begun

His decline has not been as ugly as Peyton Manning’s, but looking at Drew Brees’ stats, his decline is undeniable. Yes, he still puts up impressive passing yards and can still throw touchdown passes. However, his interceptions have been concerning and his passer rating has reached its peak.

Brees’ prime likely ended in 2011. Brees set a career-high with an 83.95 passer rating while leading the league in passing yards and touchdowns. His interception percentage was 2.1 percent, one of the lowest in the NFL. Since then, his interception percentage has been below 2.1 percent twice and above it twice.

His highest passer rating since 2011 was in 2015 (75.47). Still, it’s impossible to deny that Brees is no longer in his prime. His decline has not been incredibly obvious, but it’s still pretty clear that Brees isn’t replicating his 2011 numbers ever again.

Drew Brees’ decline is a natural one. Most quarterbacks tend to peak at around 32 years old. After that, they steadily decline. But once the huge decline hits them, they are usually done. Peyton Manning is a great example.

Brees should get a standing ovation every time he returns to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. He has been a hero on and off the field for the Saints. The city of New Orleans should appreciate everything he has done for them.

But all good things must come to an end. Even Drew Brees’ time with the Saints.