Fantasy Football: Winning Daily Fantasy Football Picks for NFL Week 2

Selecting a winning daily fantasy football team can be challenging. Niner Noise fantasy football blogger JD Leidy shows how using an algorithm can help.

Sep 12, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2), center Daniel Kilgore (67), running back Carlos Hyde (28) and outside linebacker Ray-Ray Armstrong (54) run onto the field before the game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lev’i’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

There’s fantasy, and then there’s daily fantasy.

No, I’m not talking about the times when your mind wanders to that memory of the checkout girl that winked at you once as she evocatively placed the change in your hand, leaving you henceforth pining for the possibility of something more.

No. We’re talking daily fantasy football, or DFF, here.

However, not too dissimilar to today’s digital dating scene (So I hear; I’ve been married for a decade), DFF has all the wonders and excitement of a longer-term relationship without any of those pesky commitments.

Simply select some players, stay under the salary cap and let your fantasy dreams manifest themselves like Kelly LeBrock in Weird Science.

Don’t forget to wear a bra on your head, though. Moving on.

For those that are familiar with DFF, you’re probably aware that the relationships are not exclusive, i.e. everyone can select the same players. This lack of exclusivity means that the pressure on owners to make optimal decisions at each position is amplified.

Sep 11, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) drops back to pass against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Lions won 39-35. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Case in point, if both you and I select QB Matt Stafford (likely a very popular selection this week; more on that in a moment) and WR Marvin Jones as his running mate, our teams will perform in lockstep with one another at those two positions.

So, often the winning DFF teams, in pooled competitions (not so much in head-to-head), are comprised of virtually all of the same players.

Said a different way, with 32 teams and only five or so fantasy-relevant players on each squad, there are only so many line-up permutations.

With many of these daily contests involving tens of thousands of participants, and with all of those same participants reading mainstream player analyses, it’s extremely difficult to gain an edge.

There are two primary daily fantasy sports sites, FanDuel and Draft Kings.

Over the past few years, these sites have come under fire, as allegations of robo-players, i.e. computer player-selection algorithms, have surfaced.

There’s nothing inherently underhanded or illegal about having a computer select your DFF squad. However, it does call into question how these leagues are advertised, i.e. “Come compete with everyday Joe’s just like you”.

So how are you going to gain the upper hand in a highly competitive, possibly computer-manipulated undertaking?

By reading this column, of course.

Sep 11, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) looks on during a stop in play in the second half against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Lions won 39-35. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Strategy

Over the remainder of the season, we will select a weekly DFF lineup using the following core principles:

To further illustrate, the table below displays the top ten receivers, as rated by FOM, and their associated FanDuel pricing.

So, the relative values at wide receiver in Week 2 (highlighted above) are Dez Bryant, T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief.

Said another way, these are the players that FOM predicts will perform better than the folks at FanDuel who set the prices think they will. Relative Value. We’re going to by Dez dollars for a discount.

In summary, our general methodology for selecting a top-tier DFF squad will be as such:

Simple, right? Child’s play.

Sep 11, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) drops back to pass against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Lions won 39-35. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Science

I’ve already paired and perused the FantasyOMatic and FanDuel data and there some observations that immediately jump off the page.

At quarterback, the first half of our stack, a couple names have great relative value:

So, with three possible options at quarterback (Luck, Stafford and Manning), the next step is to pair them with an associated receiver or tight end, thus completing the stack.

We’ve already looked at wide receiver. Here are FOM’s top ten tight ends:

Three tight ends show strong relative value. However, none of them correspond to one of our top signal callers.

So, let’s put a pin in tight end for a second and look at the receivers again.

Bingo! We’ve got QB Andrew Luck as the No. 1 rated passer according to FOM, and both T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief are solid relative values among the top ten wideouts. We’re going places.

Let’s run a parallel track as well, just for kicks. Matthew Stafford had a great Week 1, and although none of the Detroit Lions wide receivers made the FOM top ten, TE Eric Ebron did. He’s not as cheap as Jermaine Gresham, but he pairs much better with Stafford (you know, seeing as they are on the same team and all).

So our two parallel stacks are Luck-Hilton and Stafford-Ebron.

Sep 11, 2016; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) looks over the Cincinnati Bengals defense in the second half at MetLife Stadium. The Bengals defeated the Jets 23-22. Mandatory Credit: William Hauser-USA TODAY Sports

The Science Cont.

Now it’s time to pick a top back, a top wideout and a defense. For those wondering “Why take the defense now?”, I submit the following:

On a week-in, week-out basis there will be a significant points spread between the highest and lowest scoring defense.

At a FanDuel price point of around $4,000 to $6,000, the right defense is likely to put much more of a charge into your weekly outcome than similarly-priced running backs and wide receivers.

Defense can be the difference maker in any given week, and thankfully, FantasyOMatic ranks them as well.

For Week 2 of the NFL season, the defense with the highest FOM ranking is the Cincinnati Bengals. Even better news, the price is right at $4,400. Let’s take’m.

Wait… the Bengals? Going up against Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and the rest of the high-powered Pittsburgh Steelers offense? The very same.

Remember the initial supposition for constructing our weekly lineups: The best daily fantasy football owners use algorithms. We’ve got an algorithm (FantasyOMatic). So, we should probably use it.

Nov 1, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) is sacked by the Cincinnati Bengals defense during the second quarter at Heinz Field. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Besides, in the last four regular season meetings with the Bengals, QB Ben Roethlisberger’s average passer rating is a modest 88.5, with a combined six touchdowns and five interceptions.

In last year’s playoff matchup between the two teams, Big Ben went 18 for 31 passing for 289 yards and one TD. Enough to win the game, but certainly nothing monumental.

And like I said, all of this data is already in the FOM algorithm. So, less selling, more doing. We’ll use the Bengals in both stacks.

Below are the top ten FOM-ranked Week 2 running backs.

RBs Lamar Miller and Carlos Hyde each represent a great value. Let’s use them in both line ups.

Lastly, let’s select our top wideouts for both lineups. To use a “meat” word, WR Julio Jones, going against the Oakland Raiders secondary, looks juicy.

Last week, QB Drew Brees carved up the Raiders D for over 400 yards. It’s only one game, and the Raiders probably aren’t as bad as their Week 1 performance suggests. Still, I’m standing by my initial assessment: Juicy. Tasty even.

Sep 11, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Julio Jones (11) catches a pass in front of Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (28) during the first half at the Georgia Dome. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Jones fits nicely into our less expensive Stafford-Ebron stack. However, with Luck priced at $700 more than Stafford, selecting Jones in that stack means that our other receiver selections will have to be too far down the board, i.e. Jones will be our only FOM top ten-ranked receiver.

So, for the Luck-Hilton stack, we’ll pass on Jones. Hilton is already an FOM top ten receiver. Now, we’ll go ahead and flesh out the rest of the line-ups.

Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12) with wide receiver T.Y. Hilton prior to the game against the Denver Broncos in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Art

We’ve sharpened our pencils, dusted off our slide rules and engaged in some very suspect (but entertaining, right?) “science” to get us this far.

Here is where subjectivity enters into the equation. The true art of the endeavor.

Between the two stacks that have been identified, I believe that the Stafford-Ebron stack will be the more highly-owned across FanDuel lineups. Remember, DFF owners are not just going for points, they are going for points that others did not capture. Hence, a premium should be placed on less popular players or stacks.

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So, let’s go with Andrew Luck at QB, and tuck in a little T.Y. to round things out.

I know, I know… on the road, against Denver. I’m grimacing right now too.

But that’s exactly why this stack will be unpopular. And, if it comes through, there will be far fewer owners that we will have to outlast with our remaining picks. Trust the algorithm, friends. It’s our lodestar.

To finish off this line-up I went with WRs Dez Bryant and Jordan Matthews, both ranked in the FOM top ten.

Dec 13, 2015; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars tight end Julius Thomas (80) looks on against the Indianapolis Colts in the third quarter at EverBank Field. The Jaguars won 51-16. Mandatory Credit: Jim Steve-USA TODAY Sports

The tight end is Julius Thomas. He’s ranked second, behind the garishly-priced Jordan Matthews at $7,400. I like Thomas, both for the matchup (San Diego Chargers) and for his performance in Week 1.

Of course, my thoughts on the matchup, his past performance, etc. are largely irrelevant. We’re using an algorithm, remember? However, as we get into the art section of this process, some judgement (and in turn, biased) calls must be made.

We’ll round things out with K Dan Bailey (young QBs mean stalled drives which mean more FGs), and we’ve got ourselves a team.

An algorithmically-selected, value-optimized team no less. Pretty cool, right? Yeah, I know… if it wins it is.

Sep 11, 2016; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) celebrates a touchdown pass thrown by quarterback Andrew Luck (12) to wide receiver Donte Moncrief (10) in the first half against the Detroit Lions at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Lions won 39-35. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

The Squad

So to recap, here is our squad, selected using a combination of the free FantasyOMatic fantasy football algorithm and the pricing from daily fantasy sports website FanDuel.

Feeling confident? Me neither.

To be honest, because of the relative pricing dynamics of the players on FanDuel, I rarely feel great about my DFF line-ups. But, it doesn’t matter how I feel. In fact, if anything, it’s probably a contra-indicator.

Over an entire season, it is exceedingly likely that the FOM algorithm, that leverages oodles of stats and player characteristics, is going to perform better than my intuition.

So we’re going with it. At least I am. I hope you give it a shot too.

For fun, here’s the resultant team from the Stafford-Ebron stack:

Like it better? Then play it. Heck, play them both. It’s fun and, with FanDuel offering matchups with entry fees as low as one dollar, it’s virtually free.

Happy DFF-ing and I’ll see you back here next week.

All statistics, records, quotes and accolades courtesy of ESPN.com, FantasyOMatic.com, FanDuel.com and NFL.com unless otherwise indicated.