Fantasy Football: Week 6 Targets on the 49ers Roster and Beyond

Which players, 49ers and others, are noteworthy in Week 6 of the 2016 fantasy football season? These are the “Startable, Ownable and Eyeable.”

Oct 6, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) runs onto the field during a NFL game against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The ‘Fro is a Go!

It appears after seemingly endless wrangling, a passel of anthem kneel-downs and an offseason script that likely made the writers of Days of Our Lives jealous, quarterback Colin Kaepernick is set to take the field as the 49ers starter this upcoming Sunday.

I was hesitant to put the exclamation point after the opening line above, as I can’t honestly say that I’m really excited about it.

Blaine Gabbert has been an abomination. Yes, the offense desperately needs a spark. Yes, spending $40 million on wide receiver Torrey Smith is a complete waste of time if he’s only going to be targeted two to three times a game (and errantly, at that).

But let us not forget who Kaepernick has proven to be once the air was let out of his balloon in New Orleans at Super Bowl XLVII.

Since that magical 2012 season, or half-season more accurately, Kaepernick’s passer rating has cratered, declining from a very respectable 98.3 to a pine-worthy 78.5 when he was finally benched last year.

Of course, Kap is among the new breed of “running quarterbacks,” so passer rating only tells half the story.

Spoiler Alert: it’s not an uplifting one.

The table below shows Kaepernick’s rushing stats, 2012-2015:

There it is. Plain as day. A quarterback, who has never been an elite passer, but who made up for it with his innate rushing abilities, is experiencing diminishing returns on the ground (especially in the touchdown department) as his career progresses.

Let’s face it. The league has figured Kap out. And I don’t think Kap can return the favor.

Will he be better than Blaine Gabbert? Sure(ish). It’s certainly a low bar. Gabbert is the No. 32 ranked quarterback in the league.

But the odds of Kap representing anything more than a Band Aid on the hemorrhage that is the 2016 season are negligible. So no exclamation point; I take it back.

Recap

For those dutiful readers who have been following Startable, Ownable and Eyeable since the beginning of the year (yes, all two of you… thanks, mom), I owe you an apology.

I was travelling last week, and unable to produce a column.

Then my plane ride home inevitably turned into a week-long “vacation” in bed; I was down and out with a nasty cold. I don’t know what it is about return flights, but they have it out for me in a major way.

With the Arizona contest landing on a Thursday, before I knew it, I’d already missed two posts.

Aug 14, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Blaine Gabbert (2) reacts in warmups before the game against the Houston Texans at Levi’s Stadium. Houston defeated San Francisco 24-13. Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

However, I did have the opportunity to begin my piece on the Cowboys game, and I thought it would be worthwhile to include an excerpt from it here to remind us all why Kaepernick is now riding the dual waves of eternal optimism and short-term memory loss, while Gabbert is now riding the pine:

Blaine. Blaine Blaine. What can I say?

In the mold of several mediocre 49er quarterbacks before him, he truly is, as the great Bill Walsh once said of then starter Steve DeBerg, “just good enough to get you beat.”

Gabbert started the game looking confident. It was clear that the game plan was for him to use both his arm and his legs to frustrate the Cowboys defense, and it worked reasonably well for about 15 minutes of game time.

Then reality set in, i.e. the reality that the 49ers have a distinct dearth of talent at the skill positions with QB topping that list, and the Gabbert-led Niners did what all iffy teams do that are playing above their pay grade. They got “right-sized”.

I would never accuse Gabbert of not playing hard, nor would I say, based on my semi-trained eye, that he lacks the raw physical tools to be an above-average NFL quarterback.

However, it’s what’s between the ears that appears in question.

And the Arizona game… a carbon copy.

You can’t turn the ball over twice inside your own 10 yard line in a defensive struggle and think you’re going to emerge victorious. And you definitely can’t think that when you have a quarterback with a 69.6 passer rating running the show. Sayo. Nara.

Turning to potentially brighter spots, here are the players that are Startable, Ownable and Eyeable this week, minus the Thursday game, of course.

Damn deadlines! Now that gets an exclamation point.

Oct 6, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Oct 6, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) carries the ball in the fourth quarter against the Arizona Cardinals during a NFL game at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Startable

RB Carlos Hyde

It’s fair to say that at this stage of the season (the depressing part being that we’re just entering Week 6), the only truly Startable talent on the 49ers roster, week in and week out, is running back Carlos Hyde.

Hyde continues to post RB1-style fantasy numbers, with Week 2 in Carolina being the lone exception. If you own him, you’re starting him. He’s proven to be a banner choice, even against tough run defenses like Seattle and Arizona.

He will receive another test this weekend, as the 49ers pack their bags for lovely, sun-drenched Buffalo.

The Buffalo Bills have the No. 2 fantasy defense. However, they are allowing an average of 97 yards per game on the ground and have surrendered five rushing touchdowns on the year.

The prevailing wisdom is having QB Colin Kaepernick under center boosts Hyde’s value. The theory being that a QB that is a running threat puts more pressure on the defense, vis-à-vis the read option.

I don’t disagree with that notion in principal. However, if Kap is either as slow or inefficient as he appeared to be in the preseason, I’m not convinced.

All that said, Hyde gets the start on most squads, unless you are an owner that is sitting on a treasure trove of talent at running back (and receiver for those leagues that have a FLEX position).

Other running backs who get the nod this week include:

Oct 9, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Buffalo Bills running back LeSean McCoy (25) runs for 53 yards in the 2nd quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. McCoy is chased by Los Angeles Rams outside linebacker Alec Ogletree (52). Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

RB LeSean McCoy (BUF)

Sorry, Faithful. I had to do it.

LeSean McCoy is a top-tier talent, and the 49ers run stopping ability is more flimsy than a lean-to in a hurricane.

Look for “His Shadiness” to continue a string of double-digit performances dating back to Week 3.

In fact, with linebacker NaVorro Bowman out for the duration, it’s both safe and sad to say that the lead running back facing the 49ers on any given week is about as close to a fantasy lock as there is.

RB LeVeon Bell (PIT)

Of course owners are starting LeVeon Bell, irrespective of the matchup. He’s one of the best backs in the league. And for those who were willing to wait on him during his four-game suspension, it’s time to start ringing in the rewards (that’s right… because I like it corny).

However, this week’s opponent, the Miami Dolphins are the only team worse than Niners at stopping opposing tailbacks this season, yielding a whopping 150.8 yards per contest.

“Why throw when you can run?”, says a pensive (albeit imaginary, in this case) Mike Tomlin.

The morning Bell will chime this week in Miami (oh yeah! What’s corn without a little cheese on top?).

Sep 19, 2016; Chicago, IL, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Ryan Mathews (24) carries the ball against the Chicago Bears during the second half at Soldier Field. The Eagles won 29-14. Mandatory Credit: Mike DiNovo-USA TODAY Sports

RB Ryan Mathews (PHI)

At this point in the season, a large enough sample size is developing to determine the best and worst defenses for running backs to face.

The Washington Redskins have the third-worst run stopping ability in the league, and that means Ryan Mathews could flourish.

Fresh off an 11-point game in Detroit, Mathews is leading the team in carries heading into Week 6 and should see a healthy tote dose in our nation’s capital.

Only a slightly less obvious choice than the other two above, Mathews is a go.

Oct 6, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jeremy Kerley (17) celebrates after a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals during the second quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Ownable

WR Jeremy Kerley

The surprise of the 2016 season, virtual walk-on Jeremy Kerley has been the one bright spot of the 49ers receiving corps.

King of the short to intermediate routes, his game fits perfectly with shaky quarterback play and the quick hitting-style head coach Chip Kelly favors.

Over the past two weeks, Kerley has tallied 14 and 17 points, respectively, on a total of 14 receptions (PPR alert!). Following that same line, he is averaging a team-leading 9.2 targets per game this season and has never had less than six targets in any game.

Of course, the reinsertion of Colin Kaepernick will not only affect Carlos Hyde, but the receivers as well. And it remains to be seen if Kerley’s slants and hitches are as beloved by Kap as they have been by Blaine Gabbert.

Kerley does have two things going for him though, regardless of the arm behind center, make him distinctly Ownable (especially in deeper leagues): he gets open and he has great hands.

Other receivers that are Ownable this week include:

Sep 18, 2016; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Terrelle Pryor (11) makes a catch for a first down against the Baltimore Ravens during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Ravens defeated the Browns 25-20. Mandatory Credit: Scott R. Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

WR Terrelle Pryor (CLE):

“Slash 2.0,” as he’s now being called in deference to a similar double threat of old, Pittsburgh’s Kordell Stewart, Terrelle Pryor will continue to have a marquee role in a Browns offense that perennially plays from behind.

In fact, one more shot to QB Cody Kessler, and he might end up the team’s starting signal caller. Imagine that, being able to “backdoor” your way into starting two quarterbacks.

I happen to love these positional anomalies, i.e. guys that have more potential value by dint of their actual on field usage versus their designated ESPN fantasy position.

Stash Slash; he’s still available in roughly 20 percent of leagues. He might be throwing to himself before long.

WR Michael Thomas (NO)

Yes, I know… never trust a man with two first names.

But, so far this year, he’s been more reliable than WR Brandin Cooks. In fact, one of the reasons my primary fantasy team has been sucking massive wind is that Thomas (and running mate WR Willie Snead) keep poaching all of Cooks’ targets.

Thomas had two double-digit fantasy weeks heading into the bye, and this week draws what’s turning out be a very average Carolina defense (No. 23 in points allowed and No. 15 in receiving yards surrendered).

If you are in need of some receiving depth, and you missed on waiver wire darling WR Sammie Coates this week, grab the under-owned Thomas (58 percent).

Sep 11, 2016; Glendale, AZ, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Chris Hogan (15) scores a first quarter touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

WR Chris Hogan (NE)

With the return of QB Tom Brady, it’s time to officially upgrade all Patriots’ pass-catching assets. And this year’s resident deep threat is WR Chris Hogan.

Coming straight off of a 114-yard, 12 fantasy-point performance in Week 5, it’s easy to see why his ownership percentage is on the rise, up 11 percent this week to 44 percent ownership across all ESPN leagues.

Hogan’s hot, and you’re not… that is, if you don’t find a bench spot for him this week.

Requisite Patriots Disclaimer: What are the odds that head coach Bill Belichick starts WR Danny Amendola over Hogan this week and he unreservedly goes off? 100 percent.

ct 2, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick (7) warms up prior to the game against the Dallas Cowboys at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Eyeable

Limited to 49ers only (at least so far this year), here are the players to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

QB Colin Kaepernick

OK. I admit it. I did a fair bit of Kap-bashing in this week’s preamble. Maybe even more than a fair bit.

But, of course the entire (fantasy) world will be watching to see if he’s still “got it.” Assuming he does, he could make an interesting add or bye week fill-in.

Running quarterbacks, when productive, have an innate advantage over pure passers. Even Blaine Gabbbert, as miserable as he has been as a starter, has both a 23- and a 19-point performance this year, due largely to his legs.

Kap, despite all his shortcomings (not the least of which is that rodeo clown hairdo), is inarguable Eyeable.

TE Vance McDonald

Vance McDonald has missed the last two weeks with a nagging hip issue. However, he appears poised to return, if not this week, certainly against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

It’s hard to roster a second tight end that is not regularly taking the field. However, if McDonald remains true to his earlier form (he was averaging 11.5 fantasy points pre-injury), he has the makings of a nice second-half piece.

WR Torrey Smith

If you read my preseason piece on Smith, you know that I was high on him entering the season. So far, he has been a monumental disappointment, and if you dropped him, I certainly can’t blame you. I did.