Fantasy Football Week 1: Start or Sit?

Jan 3, 2016; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware (32) runs in for a touchdown as Oakland Raiders defensive tackle Dan Williams (90) misses the tackle during the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Who should you start and who should you sit at each position in fantasy football Week 1 from the 2016 NFL season?

After a long and weary wait, the NFL and fantasy football officially make their long awaited returns on Thursday. Some of you enter 2016 with titles to defend, while the majority have vengeance on their minds. Either way I’m going to help you reach your weekly goals, fracture some friendships, win some money and make your mark on your league.

This is Fantasy Football: Start or Sit Week 1 Edition.

Over the next 17 weeks, I’m going to give you some of my favorite weekly fantasy starters while I recommend which ones to put on your bench. For the record, yes I think you should start Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. No I don’t think you should bench Todd Gurley or David Johnson. Only on the rarest occasions (by rarest I mean today) will I tell you to bench a fantasy stud.

The purpose of this article is to advocate players who you might have been on the fence about or even looked over. However, chances are some of you skipped over this intro slide and are not even reading the words I’m currently typing. You are the same people who will leave me comments telling me how much of a moron I am for not recommending you start Antonio Brown.

I’m going to love that part. So let’s get to it. Here are the Start/Sits for fantasy football Week 1.

ARLINGTON, TX – JANUARY 04: Quarterback Matthew Stafford

Quarterbacks

Start

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts – Over the Lions final six games last year, Stafford threw 17 touchdowns to just one interception. He also averaged 276 passing yards during that span. Last year, the Colts defense finished 24th in the NFL in passing yards per game and that was with their All-Pro cornerback Vontae Davis. On Sunday, they’ll be without him.

Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints – Last year, Carr managed to throw multiple touchdown passes in 11 out of the Raiders 16 games. The Saints defense finished 31st in passing yards per game last season and allowed a league-high 45 touchdown passes. The Philadelphia Eagles who finished second to last in that department last season allowed nine fewer touchdown passes.

Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – In the Redskins final four games in 2015 (including playoffs) Cousins had 14 total touchdowns (12 passing, 2 rushing) and zero interceptions. The Steelers have had one of the best run defenses in the NFL over the last two years while their pass defense has been one of the worst. If the Redskins want to move the ball, they are going to have to do it through the air. With players such as wide receiver DeSean Jackson, WR Pierrre Garcon, tight end Jordan Reed, and WR Jamison Crowder it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

Sit

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos – Remember that rare occasion I spoke of when talking about benching a stud? Well, here’s an example. The last time we saw Newton, the Broncos defense was stalking, harassing and pummeling him. Newton was sacked six times, lost two fumbles, threw one interception and completed less than 44 percent of his passes. With the Panthers trotting out the same exact offensive line from Super Bowl 50, I don’t trust them protecting Newton.

With that said, in deeper leagues Newton is probably a better option than most. In 10-team leagues, plenty of owners were able to draft guys like Carr, Stafford, Cousins, and Tyrod Taylor to backup Newton. I would start any of those four guys in Week 1 over Newton.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – In two games against the Chiefs last season, Rivers averaged 221 passing yards while combining for zero touchdown passes two interceptions and 13 fantasy points. Let me be clear: he combined for 13 fantasy points in their two meetings which means he averaged 6.5 fantasy points per game.

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins vs. Seattle Seahawks – Tannehill should make a good streaming option in Adam Gase’s offense at times, but this isn’t one of those weeks. The Dolphins have to play at CenturyLink Field and deal with the 12th Man. It also appears they’ll have to do that without their Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey and 2015 first-round pick receiver DeVante Parker.

Nov 30, 2014; Jacksonville, FL, USA; New York Giants running back Rashad Jennings (23) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Running Backs

Start

Rashad Jennings, New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys – In the Giants final four games last season, Jennings averaged 20 carries and 108 rushing yards. With the G-Men recently releasing Andre Williams, there’s no reason to believe Jenning’s won’t get the goal-line carries in 2016. The Cowboys who finished 22nd in run defense in 2015 are dealing with injuries and suspensions along their defensive front.

Spencer Ware, Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Diego Chargers – Starting running back Jamaal Charles appears to be sitting out this game and that leaves Ware to handle a majority of the touches. The Chargers defense allowed the sixth-most rushing yards last season and dead last in that department during the preseason. Call me crazy but I don’t think they fixed that problem.

Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints – Last season, Murray had the third-most rushing attempts in the NFL and also chipped in 41 receptions. On Sunday, he’ll face the Saints, who allowed the second-most rushing yards in the NFL. The Saints 2016 first round pick, defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins, was put on IR with a broken fibula. Also, their 2015 second-round pick, linebacker Hau’oli Kikaha, tore his ACL during the offseason. Their front-seven is as suspect as it was last year.

Sit

Danny Woodhead, San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs – I’m not going to lie, it pains me put Woodhead on the list because I’m a big fan. However, the matchup isn’t in his favor. In two games against the Chiefs last season, Woodhead totaled 13 touches, 29 yards and 0 touchdowns. In standard leagues, he finished with 0 points in each of those two games and in PPR he averaged 2 FF points per game. Playing on the road in Arrowhead Stadium, Woodhead will have better days ahead of him.

Thomas Rawls, Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins – The Seahawks offense has a great matchup in Week 1, but it doesn’t look like Rawls will get to fully enjoy it. Pete Carroll plans to put Rawls on a snap count and treat this game like a second preseason game. In a game where they might not even need Rawls, he’s too risky to play.

Redskins RBs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – It doesn’t matter if it’s Matt Jones, Rob Kelley, or a combination of both. The Steelers rushing defense finished top-five in 2015 and top-six in 2014. They did not allow 100 yards rushing in six of their final seven regular games in 2015 while allowing the second-fewest rushing touchdowns in the NFL.

Dec 13, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett (16) celebrates with wide receiver Doug Baldwin (89) after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Wide Receivers

Start

Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints – Remember a couple slides ago when I wrote about why I like Derek Carr this week? Well it should be no surprise I like the Raiders starting receivers too.

Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks vs. Miami Dolphins – The Dolphins have arguably one of the worse cornerback corps in the NFL and Russell Wilson is a magician. Including the playoffs, Wilson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in eight of his last nine games. In seven of those nine games, it was 3 touchdown passes or more. It won’t surprise me if Baldwin and Lockett both get a touchdown in Week 1.

Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts – Remember a couple seconds ago when I said I liked Michael Crabtree for the same reasons I liked his quarterback? Well, apply that same logic to Matthew Stafford and Marvin Jones.

Sit

Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos – Last season, the Broncos defense allowed the least amount of passing yards per game. This year, they return the same trio of CBs who dominated the league and still have a great pass rush led by Von Miller. Max Henson, a staff writer for the Carolina Panthers official website, reported head coach Ron Rivera is looking to limit Benjamin’s snaps to about 35 for the season opener.

Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City Chiefs, vs. San Diego Chargers – In two games last season against the Chargers, Maclin combined or nine catches, 97 yards and 0 touchdowns. That goose egg in the touchdown department shouldn’t be surprising because the Chargers defense on average, allowed less than 1.5 touchdown passes per game in 2015.

Julian Edelman, New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals – I’m not in love with the matchup because the Cardinals secondary is one of the best in the NFL. Tyrann Mathieu is capable of playing in the slot and doing it at an All-Pro level. As much as people like/love Jimmy Garoppolo‘s potential, he’s not Tom Brady. Playing on the road in his first ever start, it won’t be a surprise to see him struggle.

Jan 17, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Jesse James (81) runs for extra yards after a catch with Denver Broncos inside linebacker Brandon Marshall (54) chasing during the fourth quarter in a AFC Divisional round playoff game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Tight Ends

Start

Jesse James, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Washington Redskins – No Martavis Bryant, Heath Miller, Ladarius Green, or Le’Veon Bell. Last season, Ben Roethlisberger averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game last season and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be throwing it that much in 2016. In the last nine regular season games for the Redskins, they have given up on average six receptions per game to opposing tight endss.

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings vs. Tennesse Titans – I’ll be the first to tell you I’m not a big believer in Rudolph. However, the Titans have gave up nine touchdowns over their final 12 regular season games in 2015. This is clearly a case of touchdown or bust, but I think Rudolph gets in the end zone.

Sit

New York Giants TEs vs. Dallas Cowboys – It looks like Larry Donnell and Will Tye will be a poor man’s version of the Indianapolis Colts when they had Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener over the last four years. Each tight end will play, stealing targets and opportunities. As a result, each one of these players’ ceiling will be limited.

Zach Miller, Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans – Miller has been a popular sleeper pick this season and it’s not a stretch to think he could finish as a top-10 tight end in fantasy football if he stays healthy. With that said, his Week 1 matchup should have you looking elsewhere. In their last 15 regular season games, the Texans defense has only allowed three touchdowns to opposing tight ends.

Oct 19, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Nolan Carroll (23) celebrates his 17-yard interception for a touchdown with outside linebacker Connor Barwin (98) and free safety Malcolm Jenkins (27) against the New York Giants during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

D/ST

Start

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland Browns – They are playing the Browns. The Eagles are playing at home. They are playing the Browns. The Eagles defense forced the most interceptions during the preseason. They are playing the Browns. The Eagles defense allowed the fewest rushing yards during the preseason. They are playing the Browns. Cleveland’s best offensive player, Josh Gordon, is not playing. They. Are. Playing. The. Browns.

Green Bay Packers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Going into 2016, I’m a fan of the Jaguars young and talented offense. With that said, no quarterback took more sacks and threw more interceptions last season than Blake Bortles.

Sit

New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals just have too many weapons between Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, John Brown, and David Johnson. I won’t be surprised if the Patriots frustrate Carson Palmer and keep the offense bottled up for a little. Yet, I just don’t see them doing it for the entire game.

Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints – The Raiders made some good additions to their defense during the offseason and Khalil Mack should be in the running for Defensive MVP. I just still can’t recommend starting a defense against the Drew Brees and company playing at home.