Fantasy Football: 10 League-Winning Strategies for 2016 Draft Day
Everyone wants to hoist the trophy at the end of the fantasy football season. Here are 10 strategies to help you dominate your 2016 fantasy draft.
Aug 20, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde (28) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Quinton Patton (11) in the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
By now, everyone and their fantasy football-playing mother has read Matthew Berry’s Draft Day Manifesto as well as his 100 Fantasy Football Facts for 2016.
If not, you definitely should.
Berry is as skilled an entertainer as he is a fantasy analyst. So, not only will you learn a ton (I always do), you might just catch yourself laughing out loud a few times in the process.
However, there is one problem with Berry’s draft-day advice, and I’ve already referenced it — everyone reads it.
In 2015, an estimated 75 million people partook in the quest for fantasy glory. That’s approximately 150 million eyeballs (I didn’t account for one-eyed pirates or those who’ve recently fallen into toxic waste) searching for inside fantasy knowledge.
According to a recent press release from ESPN, Berry is the “most recognizable and influential personality in fantasy sports.” He gets a heap of eyeballs.
That means fantasy players seeking an edge will need to go elsewhere. Look no further, Faithful.
Here are ten league-winning strategies for your 2016 fantasy draft.
Note: The following strategies are for a 10-team league using a snake draft and standard ESPN scoring.
January 29, 2016; Kahuku, HI, USA; Hawaiian hostesses Chelsea Hardin (far left) and Mahina Garcia (far right) pose with Team Irvin wide receiver Allen Robinson of the Jacksonville Jaguars (15) during 2016 Pro Bowl photo day at Turtle Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Fantasy Drafts Are Won (and Lost) in the Middle Rounds
Every fantasy season, owners agonize over who they will take in the first few rounds. However, rarely are leagues won or lost based on first and second rounders.
Why is that? Because, despite everyone’s collective effort to identify fail-safe players, at least half of them won’t pan out.
Below is a chart of ESPN’s consensus top-20 players entering the 2015 fantasy season, along with their ultimate end-of-season position rankings. The highlighted names are those who were worth their respective Average Draft Positions (ADPs).
Now, consider the names who finished as the top-five players at their respective positions in 2015, along with their pre-draft positions in the ESPN Top 300.
Pretty convincing, isn’t it? Sure, eight of the first 20 names delivered. But look how many early picks turned out to be utter bilge.
Seasons will be won and lost with picks in the middle-to-late rounds — a la QBs Carson Palmer and Blake Bortles, RBs Devonta Freeman and Doug Martin and WRs Brandon Marshall and Allen Robinson.
So, do your homework. Have a draft plan and players identified at each stage of the draft (beginning, middle, and end) who you like over their ADP peers.
Don’t just focus on your top few picks.
Aug 11, 2016; Foxborough, MA, USA; New Orleans Saints tight end Coby Fleener (82) catches a pass against the New England Patriots during a preseason NFL game at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Let the Draft Come to You
Fantasy drafts are like life. They have a rhythm, a natural order, an ebb and an associated flow. Listen to the draft board. What is it telling you? Are players falling to you for inexplicable reasons? Catch them.
Of course, there are exceptions. For example, at the corners of a snake draft, i.e. positions one and 10, it often makes sense for a player to “push the draft.”
Let’s say you are drafting 10th, and you really like TE Coby Fleener this year (and so do I, by the way. Brees, Payton, Fleener. Yahtzee!). According to ESPN’s 2016 Top 300 rankings, Fleener is the sixth best tight end this year with an ADP of No. 92.
Entering the seventh/eighth corner (pick Nos. 70 and 71), you are upbeat about your draft picks so far and want to keep the good times rolling by scooping up Fleener.
To do so, you’re going to have to reach. Your next picks are Nos. 90 and 91. If you wait, there’s a good chance Fleener will be gone. So you pounce.
Not a bad move. Sometimes you have to whip the snake by the tail. However, owners who want a team that truly delivers all season long must let the draft come to them.
By that, I mean pay attention to what positions others are filling and do the opposite. Case in point, remember last year’s pre-draft position rankings? Who do you think is at the top of this year’s list? That’s right. All of last year’s top scorers, with a few dashes of hope (think RB Ezekiel Elliot) sprinkled in.
Couple the fact that most people will buy on yesterday’s news with this year’s prevailing “wisdom” of taking top-tier receivers early (see Berry’s Draft Day Manifesto), and quality players at other positions — especially running backs and quarterbacks — should cascade to you in the early rounds.
Feb 6, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; Minnesota Vikings player Adrian Peterson on the red carpet prior to the NFL Honors award ceremony at Bill Graham Civic Auditorium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Adrian Petersen is a stud. A consistent top performer. Over the past five seasons, barring 2014’s season-long suspension, he was a top-10 running back, with his lowest position rank over that period being eighth. In many mocks, Petersen is falling to the back-end of the first round because everyone is receiver happy.
That’s marvelous news! Let others scramble. Stay calm and take the proven names who roll down the draft board straight into your lap.
And guess what? The added bonus is that this strategy will continue to pay dividends throughout the draft. In the mid-to-late rounds, owners who pressed early to get gaudy WR names will be sorting through the dregs at other positions, especially running back.
WRs Jordan Matthews, Marvin Jones, Larry Fitzgerald and yes, Torrey Smith (see my article on Smith as a fantasy sleeper) could easily end up being this year’s Brandon Marshall. Pick one. Heck, pick a couple.
By letting the draft come to you, the bonus is that you can take calculated flyers on proven players in the middle-to-late rounds.
Aug 1, 2016; Irvine, CA, USA; General view of the line of scrimmage as Dallas Cowboys center Travis Fredrick (72) snaps the ball at training camp at the River Ridge Fields. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Invest in Teams that Invest in the Trenches
Great running backs make mediocre offensive lines look decent. Great offensive lines make mediocre running backs look otherworldly.
In 2014, DeMarco Murray had a career year running behind a Dallas Cowboys offensive line that graded out as tops, according to Pro Football Focus.
Jan 3, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Washington Redskins cornerback Will Blackmon (41) and Dallas Cowboys running back Darren McFadden (20) during the game at AT&T Stadium. The Redskins defeat the Cowboys 34-23. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The following season, DeMarco skipped town for a big check and his position rank plummeted from first to 18th. Now, I happen to like Murray at his current ADP (57th overall, RB21) on a comeback year. But there’s no denying that losing his D-Town hogs was a career crippler for Murray.
So who filled his shoes in Big D? Well, it took a couple weeks to materialize, but following RB Joseph Randle’s mid-season injury, it was none other than Raiders washout, RB Darren McFadden.
Despite sitting out for roughly half a season, McFadden finished with 1,089 yards on the ground and three touchdowns, enough to secure the No. 13 overall rating, or five slots ahead of DeMarco.
Murray was being drafted ninth overall. McFadden’s was a 10th rounder, who likely went undrafted in many leagues.
Need more evidence? Here are 2015’s top-rated offensive lines along with the production of their primary running backs:
Alright, Devonta Freeman was the only top-10 finisher. But there were solid bell cows to be had on the cheap in McFadden, Jonathan Stewart and Mark Ingram. The Browns backfield was a sure “running back by committee” from the start of last season. And let’s face it, who’s long the Cleveland Browns… ever.
So, which teams have been investing in their trench warfare this offseason? The teams with the top-five ranked O-lines in 2016 are the Dallas Cowboys, the Oakland Raiders, the Green Bay Packers, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Atlanta Falcons.
August 26, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) hands the football off to running back Eddie Lacy (27) before the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The Cowboys and Falcons have running backs in Ezekiel Elliot and Freeman, respectively, who are going ultra-early, making Latavius Murray, Eddie Lacy and Jeremy Hill seem like bargain-basement bell-cow buys in 2016.
Dec 27, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Brandin Cooks (10) gestures after a catch in the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
When in Doubt, Draft the Offense, Not the Player
This point dovetails nicely with the prior one on offensive lines. There may be a player whom you love, and for all of the right reasons: speed, size, historical production, etc. But, if he’s pitted against another player with a more productive offense, default to the latter.
For instance, wide receivers ranked Nos. 10-15 heading into the 2016 season are as follows: Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins, Brandin Cooks and Amari Cooper. Each of these pass catchers is projected to go in the third round.
Who am I taking? You guessed it, the one with the highest-ranked offense.
In 2015, the New Orleans Saints finished as the second-ranked offense with 6,461 total yards. Of course, yards aren’t everything. But the Saints also finished eighth in total points (408).
Compare those numbers to Chicago’s, as an example, that finished 21st in total yards (5,514) and 23rd in total points (335).
In all fairness, Jeffery only played half a season in 2015. So, some regression to the mean can be expected this year. However, if I’m choosing among one of the five receivers above, I’m selecting the one with the best offense: Cooks.
August 26, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes the football against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Don’t Sleep on Quarterbacks
Every year, there’s a position that fantasy pundits suggest fantasy owners should wait on. They tack the word “zero” in front of it, and it’s the de rigueur strategy of the draft.
This year, Matthew Berry and others have espoused the Zero Quarterback strategy. Berry cites a litany of facts, not unlike the one’s I’ve put together above, that suggest quarterback is as unpredictable a position as any.
In fact, the likes of Blake Bortles, Carson Palmer and others makes waiting on a quarterback smart, thus allowing you to snatch other top-rated talent in the earlier rounds.
I’m not opposed to this strategy. There is definitely some value among second- and third-tier QBs. That said, I’m not sleeping on bona fide talent either. If I can get a player like Aaron Rodgers in the fifth round, I’m not hesitating.
Having one of the best signal-callers at the helm of your fantasy squad is critical, if for no other reason than you can only start one of them, and you don’t want to have to hem and haw over it every week.
Remember, it’s not a question whether or not Rodgers is better than the RB or WR you might be contemplating taking instead. It’s what is the points differential at the position, in this case QB, between great and good.
Position Points Differential (PPD) is key; I’ll be touching on it several times throughout the rest of this article.
In 2015, the spread between the No. 1 and No. 10 ranked player at QB, RB and WR was 102, 80 and 70, respectively. Said another way, having a better QB benefits your team more, by 20-30 points per year, than having a better RB or WR.
I have no problem waiting on a QB. Just don’t let top-tier talent sneak past you because you’re anchored to a “zero” strategy.
Jan 24, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (87) catches a touchdown pass against Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris (25) in the fourth quarter in the AFC Championship football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Draft Two Tight Ends
Perhaps the most dubious position on any fantasy team is tight end. Like quarterback, it’s a spot where you only start one each week, unless you play with a Flex (more on that in a moment).
However, unlike QB, the position depth at TE is sub-paltry. In 2015, only three tight ends garnered owners an average of over 10 points per game: Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert. Another three were worth nine points per game: Gary Barnidge, Greg Olsen and Delanie Walker.
That’s six players that got you near-double digits. Six. Out of 32! Discouraging, at best. The 20th rated tight end in 2015 was Owen Daniels. His average points per game: 4.4.
Finding a first-class tight end is a precarious proposition. So why not take two?
In all seriousness, if you can land a top-five tight end, you will have “hand” (Seinfeld parlance) at a position with maximum scarcity. Hit on two (I know, not likely), and you will have tremendous trade bait.
If you play in a league with a Flex position, i.e. the ability to start a RB, WR or TE in your final offensive, non-kicking spot, having two viable tight ends will give you noteworthy bye week flexibility.
Above all else, and this is a purely emotional statement, there’s nothing worse than going to the waiver wire late in the season looking for a tight end. Talk about the Island of Misfit Toys.
Admittedly, all skill positions can look bleak at that time. But a mid-season tight end search is like running a summer marathon in Death Valley during a heat wave.
Take two. Avoid the desolation.
Dec 20, 2015; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith (82) runs after the catch during the fourth quarter of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Levi’s Stadium. The Cincinnati Bengals defeated the San Francisco 49ers 24-14. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
Mean Regression Is a Real Thing
On one hand, this year’s draft board gives me the willies.
The top is loaded with receivers, the third running back off the board is a rookie, and by the time you hit the middle of the second round, virtually every player has some sort of looming question mark.
Yet, with uncertainty comes opportunity. And in 2016, that opportunity is to snatch a few players on the rebound.
Said another way, I’d rather spend this year’s risk budget on players who have done it before than to pay up for alleged talents that have yet to prove themselves.
Here is my list of top ten fantasy rebound candidates in 2016:
OK, so I lied. It’s 11.
But I had to shoehorn in Jimmy Graham, because I simply can’t believe a 6-foot-6 offensive juggernaut, who had double-digit touchdowns in three of his last five seasons (and nine the only other year apart from last year, by the way), can shrivel this dramatically.
And if you pressed me on it, I’d likely add WRs Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson to the list. I just couldn’t take being accused of being that much of a cheese lover.
Regardless, the overriding point is that there are a host of names who are trading well off of their prior year’s performances as well as their career averages. These are the players to target.
Or you can always roll with Doug Baldwin. You be the judge.
Aug 27, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) celebrates after a sack in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Defense Wins Championships… So Do Kickers
If there’s one constant in fantasy football, it’s advice. Fantasy is chock-full of advice, much of it contradictory.
One pearl of fantasy wisdom upon which all the talking heads seem to agree, however, is that respectable owners wait until the last two to three rounds for defenses and kickers.
Now, who am I to argue with the fantasy Illuminati? I’m me, that’s who. And what would fantasy be without a few knock-down, drag-out arguments?
So, let’s kick things off like any worthwhile heated exchange… by hedging. I will admit the concept of waiting on a D/ST or K until the last few rounds is semi-reasonable. As most pundits will note, identifying a defense or a kicker that will be markedly better than the field is tough. Combine that unpredictability with the notion that the spread between the best and worst point-getters in each category, especially kickers, is tight.
Remember the one to ten Position Points Differentials (PPDs) from earlier? Let’s revisit them for kickers.
In 2015 the best kicker in the game was Stephen Gostkowski, with 151 points. Shocking, I know. He’s only topped the list since 2012.
The tenth kicker last year? Brandon McManus. In ’15, he was good for 125 points, or a PPD of 26. Definitely tighter than the other positions.
The one-to-10 PPD on 2015 defenses are no more stirring, with the points between the No. 1 Denver Broncos (116) and the No. 10 Washington Redskins (91) totaling 25.
So far, I’m not doing a banner job proving my point, am I? OK, here it comes.
Acknowledging only the most callow fantasy owners will draft either a defense or a kicker before round 10, let’s look at some of the other position splits at that stage of the draft.
The 10th round corresponds to picks 91-100. As a rule, this round includes quarterbacks with position ranks in the mid-teens, running backs in the mid-thirties, wide receivers in the mid-forties and tight ends Nos. 6 through 10.
Here are the 2015 tenth-round Position Points Differentials on these positions:
Clearly by the 10th round, defenses and kickers have better PPDs than running backs and receivers. Quarterbacks and tight ends still have the advantage, but let’s take a look at the 11th or 12th rounds.
Now we’re talking. Kickers and defenses in the eleventh and twelfth round have the same PPD as all other players, and as you move further down the board the phenomena only improves.
Finally, let’s look at 2015 aggregate points for these same 11th- and 12th-round players:
OK, here’s the conclusion (insert collective sigh of relief here).
By the 11th or 12th round — apart from quarterbacks — kickers and defenses have as good or better aggregate position points and Position Points Differentials, i.e. the difference between the highest and lowest scorers in a given position rank range, versus all other positions.
So, if you have a kicker or a defense that you like above others, go ahead and grab them a round or two early. Last year, I was the total points champion in my primary fantasy league. My defense: Denver Broncos (Round 12). My kicker: Brandon McManus (Round 14).
Aug 19, 2016; Arlington, TX, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Jay Ajayi (23) in action during the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys defeat the Dolphins 41-14. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Running Backs Over Wide Receivers in the Middle Rounds
Like several other points in this article, this one is more opinion than fact. However, having played fantasy for half a decade now, I can unequivocally say that I have yet to regret taking a running back over a wide receiver in the middle rounds.
You know how it goes. You’re first six picks are in the bag and you have some combination of two or three receivers, two or three running backs and maybe a quarterback and a tight end. You review your roster and feel like your picks are strong (of course you do… you picked them). You start to relax. Trouble ensues.
Here comes pick No. 7 and you’re thinking, “I’ve got my starting wideouts and my backs. I’ve got a top-notch QB and a decent tight end. Time to play.”
Now, if you’re anything like me, the wide receivers available in the middle rounds always look bigger, badder and sexier than their running back brethren. The narrative “I could see that guy getting 800 yards and six touchdowns this year,” runs through your head. The remaining RBs, on the other hand… pedestrian, lackluster, the weaker half (or third) of a running back by committee.
Is this logic wrong? No. The wideouts at this stage are likely more inspiring than the running backs. But that’s just it. As a fantasy player, you are trying to fill 16 slots with the best talent possible. If you’re already into backups and timeshares in the running back cohort, it’s time to strike. Wait another round, and you’ll likely be in pure retread territory.
Whereas, there’s always another possible “800 and six” receiver on the board.
Dec 6, 2015; Nashville, TN, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars running back T.J. Yeldon (24) runs for a short gain during the second half against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
When push comes to shove, I’ve conditioned myself to always lean running back. Is Jordan Matthews more exciting than T.J. Yeldon? Without a doubt. Is Josh Gordon sexier than Jay Ajayi? Unquestionably. Is Mike Wallace likely to outshine Jerick McKinnon nine out of 10 seasons? I’d wager yes.
However, bolstering your roster with middling RB talent is likely to pay off long term. Running backs go down. The tide among them shifts quickly. One day, you’ve got the starter locked down. And the next, the whole pecking order has been tossed.
And you can’t rely on the waiver wire either. First off, half of the talent that is allegedly available on most waiver wires will not be in your league. That’s because other smart/desperate league mates of yours will have already snatched them up.
Secondly, if you’re doing well (and I hope that you are), you’ll be down the waiver order far enough that it will be extremely difficult for you to snatch any wire layups.
So, when the seventh round rolls around, and you’re feeling like you’ve got a plum roster, don’t muck it up.
Pull the trigger on that uninspiring, run-of-the-mill running back. There will always be a big, bad, sexy “800 and six” receiver waiting for you in the next round.
Aug 30, 2016; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers defensive lineman Joey Bosa (99) poses for a photo with teammates during practice at Charger Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Mock, Mock, Mock
As the old saw goes, practice makes perfect. Fantasy drafts are no different.
If you haven’t seen it before, odds are you won’t know what to do when you do. Sure, three minutes feels like a world of time when you know exactly who you are taking next. But when you get deep into the middle rounds, your lists get jumbled, your head gets cluttered and mistakes can happen.
Luckily, there’s practice. Find a mock draft lobby, register and dive in.
I recommend conducting three mock drafts per year. And if you don’t know your draft order more than a few hours before your live draft, do at least four: one from position Nos. 1-3, one from position Nos. 4-7 and one from position Nos. 8-10. Then, whichever method produces the least satisfactory squad, repeat that one in your fourth mock.
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In all cases, mock drafts help you test and refine strategies. What if I go tight end early? When should I nab that mid-round diamond in the rough? Is Zero Quarterback the right call for me? All of these questions (and more) can be answered during mocks.
Of course, life is unpredictable. And if your league mates are anything like mine, they’re going to make some head-scratchingly offbeat selections. Even more reason to come prepared. That way, when that star player that you never thought would fall to you actually does, you’ll know how to adjust all of your ensuing picks on the fly.
Finally, I always like to participate in at least one draft with local market participants, e.g. San Francisco, Oakland, etc.
Regional biases are real. By drafting local I get a hot read on whether or not I’ve let any hometown heroes unduly creep up my draft board. And guess what? If you’re not the homer, someone else in that draft room is.
That’s a good thing. Unless you’re playing the international fantasy circuit, your actual draft will have at least one homeboy (or girl) in it too. Again, great practice.
Don’t get caught with your fantasy pants down. Dial up a few mocks, so that you can see the board coming.
Feb 8, 2016; San Francisco, CA, USA; General view of Super Bowl LI logo and Lombardi Trophy during press conference at the Moscone Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Top-10 2016 Fantasy Draft Strategies Summary
In review, here are 10 league-winning strategies for your fantasy draft day:
In fantasy, just as in life, there are no guarantees. But follow these 10 draft day rules, and you’ll have a squad that’s as close to a guaranteed winner as you’re liable to get.
All statistics, records, quotes and accolades courtesy of ESPN.com, NFL.com, FFToday.com and ProFootballFocus.com unless otherwise indicated.