Falcons HC Arthur Smith's exit fueled by close finishes and missed chances

Everything seemed so promising for Arthur Smith and the Falcons on Dec. 10.

With 3:23 left in the fourth quarter, Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder had run in for a touchdown for a 25-22 lead on the defending division champion Bucs. Closing out a win would put the Falcons atop the NFC South standings at 7-6 and Tampa Bay at 5-8, and Atlanta's season sweep would leave the Bucs essentially three games back. The Falcons also would be a game up on the Saints, having already beaten their division rivals, so a clear path was in sight for Atlanta to end a five-year playoff drought.

But the Bucs marched 75 yards, converting a fourth-and-1 and a third-and-10, and Baker Mayfield's touchdown to tight end Cade Otton gave them a 29-25 lead with 31 seconds left. The Falcons would still get agonizingly close to a wild comeback, hurrying to the Bucs' 31-yard line and seeing a final throw from Ridder to receiver Drake London end with him tackled at the 3-yard line, that close to a stunning touchdown for a walkoff win.

It was the beginning of the end, as the Falcons would lose four of their last five games, with Smith finishing 7-10 for the third time in his three seasons in Atlanta. The first two had the asterisk of financial limitations as the Falcons moved on from stars Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, but 2023 had been an offseason of ambitious spending and optimism that Atlanta could be back.

Smith's offensive mind was armed with three straight top-10 draft picks at skill positions: tight end Kyle Pitts, London and running back Bijan Robinson, a potential Rookie of the Year headed for a big year. That offense was paired with a solid defense behind new coordinator Ryan Nielsen, upgraded with veteran signings like safety Jessie Bates and defensive lineman Calais Campbell.

This was a season of thrilling finishes, where seven Falcons games had lead changes in the final minute, four as time expired. Early on, they were the masters of the last-second escape, with a Younghoe Koo field goal to beat the Packers with 0:57 left, then kicks to beat the Texans and Bucs as time expired. Then it turned the other way, with four losses in the final minute, giving up touchdowns to lose to the Vikings and Bucs, and field goals as time expired against the Cardinals and Panthers.

The Falcons' puzzling decision to go all-in on Ridder as their starting quarterback left a question mark at the center of a team otherwise lining up with enough talent to consistently win. They didn't go after any high-dollar free-agent quarterbacks, pulled out of whatever chance there was at acquiring Lamar Jackson from the Ravens, and didn't move up to go after any of the draft's top quarterbacks in April. Ridder, with four career starts and two touchdowns, was their guy.

Ridder was benched twice for backup Taylor Heinicke, and for all their ups and downs, the Falcons entered their final game Sunday with the knowledge that a win against the Saints and a Bucs loss would give Atlanta the division title and a home playoff game. Tampa Bay would struggle against the lowly Panthers, leading just 6-0 in the fourth quarter.

The Falcons' day started with promise, as Ridder, back in the lineup for an injured Heinicke, came out on fire. Atlanta scored touchdowns on its first two drives, and after Ridder's 71-yard touchdown to Robinson, the Falcons led 14-7 and Ridder was 5-for-5 for 157 yards. Everything was again in play for them.

But then the Saints took over, finishing the game on a 41-3 run for a 48-17 win, a humbling end to a difficult season. For all the close wins and losses, Atlanta ended its season by losing 37-17 to the Bears and 48-17 to the Saints, falling by a combined 51 points to two teams that didn't make the playoffs.

If the terrible finish — both in the final five weeks and Sunday afternoon — didn't doom Arthur Smith, the Falcons' inability to beat the worst teams on their schedule probably wore down the last of owner Arthur Blank's patience. Atlanta went 5-4 against teams that finished with winning records — the Bucs and Saints went a combined 5-13 — but the Falcons somehow went 2-6 against teams with losing records, while Tampa Bay and New Orleans more predictably went 13-3 in those games.

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At one point, the NFL had six teams eliminated from postseason contention, and the Falcons had lost to four of them: the Panthers (2-14), Commanders (4-13), Cardinals (4-13) and Titans (6-11). That made for a confounding season, a team somehow able to have a 3-0 record in the worst division in the NFL, yet lose its remaining three division games, even as each opponent struggled.

Adding insult to injury, the final image of Smith as Falcons coach was him angrily swearing at Saints coach Dennis Allen for what normally is a postgame handshake. New Orleans, after a 71-yard interception return to the 1-yard line, had lined up in victory formation to end the game, but backup quarterback Jameis Winston, later citing a "team decision," audibled without Allen's permission and handed off to backup running back Jamaal Williams, who had led the NFL with 17 touchdowns in 2022 but had gone the entire 2023 season without scoring.

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Allen apologized, making it clear the touchdown wasn't what he had called, and Smith had every right to be upset at an opponent taking advantage of a formation widely recognized as an endgame olive branch — we're not going to try to advance the ball, so please don't defend the play. In the end, cruel as it was for Smith, it was the Falcons unable to stop an another opponent from getting a late score against them when they really shouldn't have.

Atlanta now moves on, and their job should be seen as one of the more attractive in the NFL, with young talent on offense and a top-10 defense, a team clearly close to contending but still needing a quarterback and a coach who can develop him. That won't be Arthur Smith, but it won't take too much for the Falcons to take the step forward and find the success he couldn't in three years.

Greg Auman is FOX Sports' NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.