Early NFL power rankings: Chiefs lead the way; surprises in top 10

Why should we let common sense get in the way of fun? The confetti may or may not have been cleaned off of State Farm Stadium, and the Super Bowl LVII champion Chiefs likely haven't stopped partying. The promise of free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft are specks on the horizon.

Still, in a league that dominates our attention spans 12 months out of the year, would you expect anything less than an immediate look ahead?

So much is going to change. At this time last year, Russell Wilson was a Seattle Seahawk, A.J. Brown was a Tennessee Titan, and Tom Brady had only retired once.

Still, with roughly six months until training camp opens, here's how the league stands:

1. Kansas City Chiefs: This was a Chiefs team that was supposed to take a step back in a crowded AFC, having traded away Tyreek Hill. Without him, they looked different but just as dominant, en route to a 17-3 record and a second championship in the last four years. They'll have to figure out what to do about a few notable free agents, namely left tackle Orlando Brown. But if this version of the Chiefs can win the Super Bowl, why would you bet against the next one?

2. Philadelphia Eagles: It's small consolation in the wake of such an anti-climactic loss, but the Eagles are well-positioned for a trip to Las Vegas for Super Bowl LVIII and a chance at redemption. Jalen Hurts was sensational in the defeat to the Chiefs, as was the rest of the Philadelphia offense. There are a few things to sort out on defense, as several key veterans have unclear futures. But this is a loaded roster, and the vast majority of it is in place for 2023. There's no reason the Eagles shouldn't be the early NFC favorites.

3. Cincinnati Bengals: It starts to get harder to keep this team together if the Bengals pay Joe Burrow this offseason, but that won't really be a problem until 2025. Cincinnati has most of its core players returning and an abundance of cap space. This group should be right back in the thick of things.

4. San Francisco 49ers: Fortunately for the 49ers, they've spent the last two seasons proving they can stay in the Super Bowl conversation without top-tier quarterback play. They'll probably need to do it again, with Brock Purdy expected to be sidelined for most of the offseason and Trey Lance still a huge unknown. Those are less stressful problems to deal with when you have six All-Pros on your roster.

5. Buffalo Bills: Life's not going to get any easier for Josh Allen, as his cap hit will take a big jump this coming year. That matters, because the Bills are lacking in cap space and have a lot of decisions to make on key contributors. But having Allen at quarterback goes a long way toward easing those concerns.

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Maybe this is another case of the media overvaluing the Chargers, but it's hard not to like what you see on paper. This group was good enough to make the playoffs, has talent on both sides of the ball and not much in the way of marquee free agents. Additionally, the hire of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore should help with the offense's inconsistency. There's a lot to like heading into Justin Herbert's fourth season.

7. Dallas Cowboys: Top-10 talent, disappointing production feels like an apt description of the Cowboys, as per usual. The defense looks solid, and retaining Dan Quinn is a coup. The offense has a lot to sort through — from Mike McCarthy calling plays, to bolstering the talent, to Dak Prescott simply needing to play better. Clearly, the Cowboys are good enough to be in the postseason mix. How do they take the next step?

8. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quite a jump for a team that picked No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, but that's understandable when Trevor Lawrence played up to his draft slot. Combine his trajectory with a great coach in Doug Pederson and a weak division, and it's easy to keep Jacksonville in the playoff picture.

9. Los Angeles Rams: Perhaps a hot take, but it really felt like the Rams dealt with a perfect storm of bad luck in 2022. Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp and Sean McVay will all be back in 2023. Of course, there are issues with the salary cap and not a lot of draft resources, but this roster still has the talent to be in the playoff conversation.

10. Seattle Seahawks: In addition to the emergence of Geno Smith as a Pro Bowler, the Seahawks found four or five solid starters thanks to a fantastic draft class. If they all continue to improve, and Seattle hits a home run with the No. 5 overall draft pick they got from Denver, this is an interesting team.

11. Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins belong higher on the list if Tua Tagovailoa is fully healthy, but there's just so much uncertainty in that department. Hopefully he's good to go and we can get back to watching him operate this explosive offense, it's just hard to know what to expect right now.

12. Minnesota Vikings: Viking fans were annoyed by the doubters all season long, but the outside concerns about their legitimacy turned out to be prescient. Odds are, the football gods won't favor the Vikings as wonderfully as they did in 2022, but this is still a talented team with a chance to win a so-so division.

13. Detroit Lions: No pressure, Lions, but after such a fun finish to the season, there is pressure to keep it going. Moral victories are only cool for so long, and no one's going to care about last year if it doesn't build toward something better. Most of their key pieces are in place, and they have two first-round picks to work with this spring. Time to make a playoff trip.

14. Baltimore Ravens: For the time being, let's assume the Ravens intend to build a better offense around Lamar Jackson. There's work to do, but the bones of a great team are in place. The uncertainty comes with the contract, as the franchise tag brings the possibility of a mega-trade or a holdout with it.

15. New York Jets: All the Jets need to reach the playoffs is better quarterback play — but quarterback is the most important and difficult position in the sport. It seems unwise to run it back with Zach Wilson or any of 2022's other options. Might we see the Jets swing a trade or drop big bucks on a free-agent QB?

16. Green Bay Packers: The exact middle of the league feels like a fitting spot, given the Packers' circumstances. We have no clue right now whether they intend to run it back with Aaron Rodgers or ship him off and move forward with Jordan Love. It's arguably the biggest offseason decision of the year, and it'll shape the way we think about this team.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Steelers fans likely aren't happy that offensive coordinator Matt Canada remains in place, but the trio of Kenny Pickett, George Pickens and Najee Harris should at least spark some hope that there's room for improvement.

18. Chicago Bears: How's this for a hell of a projection? The Bears are picking No. 1 in this spring's draft, but they head into the offseason with the most salary cap space in the NFL and a chance to add a top-tier draft class. Justin Fields is clearly special. If they can surround him with enough talent to help him improve as a passer, this could be a really fun team.

19. Cleveland Browns: The Browns probably deserve to be higher on this list. They clearly have talent, and Deshaun Watson is slated to be fully available in 2023. Still, it's hard to shake how inept they looked on offense even with their star quarterback in the lineup. And there's work to do with this defense.

20. New York Giants: Fresh off of proving all the doubters wrong, the Giants still get no respect. The bottom line is that this was an over-achieving team that doesn't have Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley under contract. There's talent to add and questions to answer about how they'll move forward.

21. Denver Broncos: It's easy to assume that Sean Payton will show up in Denver, wave a magic wand and make everything better. But seeing is believing. It's not just that Russell Wilson and the Broncos' offense were disappointing — it was the worst group in the NFL. Payton is qualified to turn it around, but I can't blindly assume that he will.

22. New England Patriots: Hiring an actual offensive coordinator is a step in the right direction. Bill O'Brien might not be the best playcaller in the NFL, but it's a world away from what Mac Jones was dealing with last year. If the Patriots can now improve the offensive talent around their young quarterback, they'll have the makings of a formidable team.

23. Tennessee Titans: It's fair to wonder if the Titans have reached their ceiling as currently constructed. We know they're good enough to compete for the playoffs at their best, but even that hasn't gone according to script. It'll be interesting to watch what moves they make, as those should inform us whether they intend to take a step back and pivot.

24. Washington Commanders: Very quietly, Washington has built a pretty good roster. The Commanders have fun skill players, a loaded defensive front and talent in their secondary. The issue, right now, is their plan to move forward with Day 3 draft pick Sam Howell as their quarterback. Howell was once considered a Heisman Trophy candidate, so maybe he can rise to the occasion. But it's a big question mark at the most important position.

25. Las Vegas Raiders: It's going to be a fun week for Vegas. Their current Pro Bowl quarterback, Derek Carr, needs to be off the roster later this week if they're going to avoid paying him a ton of money. But is it even possible to trade him? And what do they do after he's gone? Aaron Rodgers sounds appealing, but his addition is easier said than done. This feels like a team that's either poised for a lot of hype or a very forgettable year, depending on how they handle this quarterback conundrum.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Banners hang forever, so the Buccaneers should have no regrets. But the bill for the Tom Brady Era is about to come due. This is a veteran team with a hell of a salary cap problem and no discernible answer at quarterback. Maybe they can navigate it, but it's hard to imagine them contending as currently constructed.

27. New Orleans Saints: Will Derek Carr be a member of the Saints by this time next week? Who can say, but it speaks to the Saints' quarterback struggles since Drew Brees' retirement that they're once again pursuing a veteran QB. That isn't their only problem, though. The Saints have a bad cap situation and a ton of expensive veterans

28. Carolina Panthers: Frank Reich looks like an excellent hire, and he should be able to do good work with the Panthers' quarterback – just as soon as they find out who that is. There's intriguing talent in Charlotte on both sides of the ball, from D.J. Moore to Brian Burns. But it all starts with finding a QB of the future.

29. Houston Texans: The bad news is the Texans still look like one of the worst rosters in the league. The good news is that they've got an exciting, young head coach and a boatload of draft capital to work with this year. If Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans do their jobs well this spring, the Texans could be a handful quickly.

30. Atlanta Falcons: At the very least, it'll be interesting to see which direction Terry Fontenot and Arthur Smith take this team, because right now, it's hard to see the vision.

31. Indianapolis Colts: No quarterback, a disappointing offensive line, an aging defense. The Colts were one of the most disappointing teams in the league last season, and you have to squint to see reasons to be positive for 2023.

32. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals have a talented quarterback to build around — but he's hurt, and it's fair to wonder how much of the upcoming season he'll miss. On top of Kyler Murray's injury, his contract will make it hard to build around him. If they do in fact trade away DeAndre Hopkins, it's hard to classify 2023 as anything but a rebuilding year in Arizona.

David Helman covers the Dallas Cowboys for FOX Sports. He previously spent nine seasons covering the Cowboys for the team’s official website. In 2018, he won a regional Emmy for his role in producing "Dak Prescott: A Family Reunion" about the quarterback’s time at Mississippi State. Follow him on Twitter at @davidhelman_.

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