Early 49ers-Chiefs 2024 NFL Super Bowl LVIII best bets

The Super Bowl is set!

The Kansas City Chiefs face the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, and I feel strongly about who I'm picking to win this game almost two weeks out.

I'll keep it short: It's Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Let me share with you my why.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, Feb. 11, 6:30 p.m. ET
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, CBS

The two weeks between conference championship Sunday and the Super Bowl will be filled with breakdowns of position groups, individual matchups, coaches and everything in between.

I will keep it simple for now — I can wager on Mahomes or Brock Purdy.

The quarterback position is the most important in sports, and, outside of a few outliers (Nick Foles in Super Bowl LII), the far more talented quarterback usually hoists the Lombardi Trophy.

Mahomes is an underdog again, and he will win outright in that spot again for the 10th time in 13 career games. More importantly, for bettors, he will cover for the 11th time in 13 games as an underdog.

It will just be all-time stuff from Mahomes.

Make no mistake, though, the Chiefs also have other advantages worth exploring.

Kansas City's offense has pivoted into featuring a downhill rushing attack to balance out the occasional woes of the passing game.

As discussed heading into the Lions game, the 49ers struggle to stop the run. San Francisco's defense has taken a step back from the perception of what we believe it to be.

The Packers moved the ball. The Lions moved the ball. The Cardinals moved the ball on it in Week 16.

The Chiefs will be able to do just that against the 49ers. San Francisco's defense is static before 80% of snaps, tops in the NFL. That is not going to cut it against Kansas City's offense.

https://statics.foxsports.com/static/orion/player-embed.html?id=fmc-woscdid6kmqer09g&image=https://static-media.fox.com/fmc/prod/sports/199cb126-ae99-46d0-8364-1d147dd2b539/xzim30cjw2q80uex.jpg&props=eyJwYWdlX25hbWUiOiJmc2NvbTpzdG9yaWVzOm5mbDpFYXJseSA0OWVycy1DaGllZnMgMjAyNCBORkwgU3VwZXIgQm93bCBMVklJSSBiZXN0IGJldHMiLCJwYWdlX2NvbnRlbnRfZGlzdHJpYnV0b3IiOiJhbXAiLCJwYWdlX3R5cGUiOiJzdG9yaWVzOmFydGljbGVzIn0= Loading Video…

This browser does not support the Video element.

The Chiefs defense is fantastic and feels like it is still overlooked. Cut it any way you'd like, but it allowed seven points to the Dolphins, 24 to Buffalo, and only 10 to the Ravens.

It is a loaded unit with home-grown talent that has improved as a group and shows signs of being an elite unit for years.

It isn't without some holes, though.

The 49ers have an advantage if they choose to run the football on a majority of plays. The Chiefs struggle to stop the run, but primarily against the shotgun, which the Niners don't always do.

If San Francisco decides to pass the ball, the Niners could run into some issues, as Kansas City's pass defense could take over the game. Also, the Chiefs defensive line will have an advantage over every 49ers offensive lineman not named Trent Williams.

Ultimately, the Chiefs have too many advantages, and you can still get them at plus money to win the game outright.

Mahomes to win MVP, +200 at some books, is also worth a wager.

PICK: Chiefs to win outright (+106 moneyline) (bet $10 to win $20.80 total)
PICK: Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl LVIII MVP (+200 at time of pick) (bet $10 to win $30 total)

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.