Did McDermott, Bills make correct fourth-down call in loss to Titans?

In the memorable words of Herm Edwards, "You play to win the game."

Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott embodied that mantra when he opted to go for a crucial fourth-and-1 conversion with 22 seconds left to play Monday night at Tennessee, with the ball on the Titans' 3-yard line and his team trailing by three.

Buffalo had been in the midst of a riveting offensive affair with the Titans, and after getting the ball back down 34-31 on the final possession, Bills QB Josh Allen led a spirited two-minute drive that put his squad in easy field-goal range. 

But they wanted more than that, and after Allen was stopped short on a dive toward the first-down marker on third down, McDermott was presented with a critical decision: play it safe or go for it all.

He opted for the latter.

That gamble backfired, as Allen slipped after taking the snap and was held short of the first down. 

Tennessee escaped with an upset victory over one of the AFC's championship favorites, while Allen, despite tossing for 353 yards and three TDs, collected his second loss of the season.

Afterward, McDermott said he wouldn't have changed a thing — no questions asked.

"I felt good about our chances," he said postgame. "We had a chance to win the game.

"At the end of the day, I trust [Josh]. And I'll trust him again if we're in that situation. I'll take him 10 times out of 10. Give them credit — they made the play they had to make when the game was on the line."

McDermott's players didn't seem to be at odds with the decision, either.

"Who better to have the ball in their hands than [number] 17?" Cole Beasley said. "He's the best player we've got. Nobody's mad at any calls."

Allen reflected on the attempt in the locker room as well.

"I was just trying to find a window to get in there," Allen said. "Quarterback sneaks aren't the most fun play, by any means. I had to find a way to get a first down there, but it happens."

Regardless of the outcome, the numbers support McDermott's choice to go for it.

NFL teams this season are 128-for-256 (50%) on fourth-down attempts. On tries from 1 yard out or less, squads have a 61.4% conversion rate (62-for-101). 

Buffalo is now 2-for-4 on the season in such scenarios and moved to 3-for-8 on fourth-down attempts. Allen, meanwhile, is 13-for-14 on short-yardage QB sneaks in his career. 

On Tuesday, Nick Wright supported McDermott's decision on "First Things First."

"[McDermott] understood that, ‘If we kick this field goal, our fate is going to come down to a coin toss.’ If [the Bills] won the coin toss, I believe they would've won the game. If they lost the coin toss, I know they were not stopping Derrick Henry. So you ask yourself, ‘Do we have a better chance of picking up this first down and scoring a touchdown than we do of winning a coin toss?’ The answer should be yes."

According to the NFL's Next Gen Stats, the Bills' win probability increased 21.3% by going for it. If they had kicked, their win probability would've been 42.1%, as opposed to 63.4% going for it.

Shannon Sharpe said he would've done the same thing as McDermott if Allen were his QB.

"I would've gone for it," Sharpe said on "Undisputed." "… You've got a 6-foot-5, 240-pound quarterback. Josh Allen slipped, and the defensive end got a great jump. [The Bills] are not going to win that game. Tennessee started to go up and down the field. They had no answer for Derrick Henry. You only need a half a yard. I would've gone for it 12 times out of 12."

In the words of another quotable NFL head coach, Bruce Arians, "No risk it, no biscuit."

Unfortunately for Buffalo, on Tuesday, they are biscuit-less.