Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams Wild Card Round: Prediction, odds, picks

In the NFC Wild Card round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs, the Detroit Lions will face off against the Los Angeles Rams. The Lions are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). 

The Lions ended the season strong, winning three of their last four to claim the NFC North for their first division win since 1993.  Meanwhile, the Rams ended on a hot streak too, claiming victory in seven of their last eight to close out the regular season. 

Here's everything you need to know about the matchup between the Rams and Lions — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from our betting analyst Will Hill. 

Lions vs. Rams Odds & Betting Lines

Lions vs. Rams Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Los Angeles (+3) 
• Pick OU: Under (51.5) 
• Prediction: Detroit 25 - Los Angeles 23

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Will Hill

I know the Rams are everyone’s darling sleeper pick, and they have far exceeded expectations this season. 

However, this is a Lions team that is a bad call in Dallas away from perhaps beating the Cowboys and being the No. 2 seed in the NFC, and they’ve been the clearly better team this season. 

The storylines for this one are fantastic — Matthew Stafford vs. the Lions, Jared Goff vs. the coach who traded him, and the Lions hosting their first playoff game in three decades. 

This should be a fun game. 

I just think the hype on the Rams has gone too far. The Lions are the better team, and they’re at home. 

I’ll lay the 3.5.

PICK: Lions (-3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points (or win outright)

How to Watch Detroit vs. Los Angeles

• Game Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: Ford Field
• Location: Detroit, Michigan
• TV: Watch on NBC

Lions vs. Rams Recent Matchups

• Detroit holds a 3-2 record against Los Angeles in their last five matchups.
• Over their last five head-to-head matchups, Detroit has put up 132 points, while Los Angeles has compiled 108.

Detroit Betting Info

• Against the spread, Detroit is 12-5-0 this season.
• The Lions have covered the spread seven times this season (7-4 ATS) when playing as at least 3-point favorites.
• Detroit has combined with its opponent to eclipsed the over/under in 64.7% of its contests this year (11 times in 17 games with a set point total).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Lions have won 78.6% of the time (11-3).
• When playing as a moneyline favorite with odds of -175 or shorter, Detroit has a 6-2 record (winning 75% of its games).
• The Lions have an implied win probability, based on the moneyline, of 63.6%.

Lions Stats

Detroit's Key Players

Offense

• Jared Goff ranks second in the NFL with 4,575 passing yards through 17 games this year, averaging 269.1 per game with a 67.3% completion percentage and 30 touchdowns (fourth in the NFL) against 12 interceptions.
• He has added 21 rushing yards (1.2 per game) and two touchdowns on the ground.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown's 1,515 receiving yards this season (third in the NFL) have come from 164 targets and 119 receptions (second in the NFL). He's averaging 94.7 receiving yards and 7.4 catches per game, with 10 receiving touchdowns (fourth in the NFL).
• David Montgomery's output on the ground this season includes 1,015 yards (ninth in the NFL) and 13 TDs. He's averaging 72.5 yards per game and 4.6 per attempt (11th in the NFL).
• Jahmyr Gibbs has rushed for 945 yards with 10 touchdowns (63 yards per game across 15 games).
• He has added 52 catches (on 71 targets) for 316 receiving yards with one touchdown. He's averaging 21.1 receiving yards and 3.5 receptions per game.

Defense

• On defense, Aidan Hutchinson has 51 tackles, 14 TFL, 11.5 sacks, and one interception in 2023.
• Alex Anzalone has 129 tackles, seven TFL, and three sacks this season. He leads the Lions in tackles.
• This season, Brian Branch has recorded one sack in addition to his seven TFL, 74 tackles, and three interceptions.
• Kerby Joseph has four interceptions (seventh in the NFL) with 80 tackles, one TFL, and 11 passes defended.

Los Angeles Betting Info

• Los Angeles have registered a 10-6-1 record against the spread this year.
• The Rams are 4-3-1 ATS when underdogs by 3 points or more this season.
• Los Angeles games have gone over the total nine times this year.
• This season, the Rams have been the underdog eight times and won two of those games.
• Los Angeles has a record of 2-5 in games where sportsbooks have them as underdogs of at least +145 on the moneyline.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Rams have a 40.8% chance to win.

Rams Stats

Los Angeles' Key Players

Offense

• Through 15 games played this year, Matthew Stafford has totaled 3,965 passing yards, while throwing 24 touchdowns against 11 interceptions and completing 62.6% of his attempts.
• Kyren Williams averages 95.3 rushing yards per game over 12 games (1,144 total yards to rank third in the NFL), while scoring 12 rushing touchdowns.
• Williams also has 32 catches for 206 yards (sixth on the Rams), with three receiving touchdowns. He has been targeted 48 times and averages 17.2 yards per game.
• In 17 games played this season, Puka Nacua has 105 catches (6.2 receptions per game on 9.4 targets per game) for 1,486 yards (fourth in the NFL) and six receiving touchdowns.
• Cooper Kupp has 59 catches for 737 yards and five receiving touchdowns. He averages 4.9 yards per game in 12 games and has been targeted 95 times.

Defense

• Ernest Jones has 145 tackles, 14 TFL, 4.5 sacks, and six passes defended in 2023.
• Byron Young has 61 tackles, eight TFL, and eight sacks.
• During the 2023 season, Jordan Fuller has 93 tackles, one TFL, and three interceptions in 17 games.
• Aaron Donald's stat sheet includes 53 tackles, 16 TFL, eight sacks, and three passes defended in 16 games

FOX Sports created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.